Phakathi kwezinto zamazwe ngamazwe ezithinta ukuthengiswa kwendwangu yangaphandle yaseChina, nakuba iVietnam ingazange ibe nengcindezi enkulu eqondile ngezintela eziqinile, uphenyo olwenziwa njalo lwekhambi lokuhweba, noma ezinye izinqubomgomo zohwebo eziqondile, ukwanda kwayo ngokushesha kwemboni yendwangu nezingubo kanye nokuma kwemakethe okunembayo kuyenze yaba imbangi eyinhloko yeChina emakethe yezindwangu yomhlaba wonke—ikakhulukazi imakethe yase-US. Umthelela ongaqondile wokuguquguquka kokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni ekuhwebeni kwangaphandle kwezindwangu zaseShayina uqhubeka ujula.
Ngokombono wezindlela zokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni, ukukhuphuka kwemboni yendwangu nezingubo zaseVietnam akuyona ingozi, kodwa "ukuphumelela okusekelwe kuqoqo" okusekelwa izinzuzo eziningi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iVietnam inenzuzo yezindleko zabasebenzi: iholo layo elimaphakathi lokukhiqiza liyi-1/3 kuya ku-1/2 kuphela yelaseShayina, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwabasebenzi bayo kwanele, okuheha inani elikhulu lemikhiqizo yezindwangu yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nabakhiqizi bezinkontileka ukuthi bakhiphe umthamo wokukhiqiza. Isibonelo, izinhlobo zezimpahla ezidumile emhlabeni wonke ezifana ne-Uniqlo ne-ZARA zidlulisele ngaphezulu kwama-30% ama-oda e-OEM yezingubo zabo ezimbonini zaseVietnam, okuqhubekisela phambili amandla okukhiqiza izingubo zaseVietnam ukuthi anyuke ngo-12% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2024, afinyelele ukukhishwa konyaka kwezingcezu eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-12. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iVietnam yakhe izinzuzo zokufinyelela emakethe ngokusayina ngokugcwele Izivumelwano Zokuhweba Ngamahhala (ama-FTA): Isivumelwano Sokuhweba Samahhala Se-Vietnam-EU (i-EVFTA) sesineminyaka sisebenza, sivumela imikhiqizo yendwangu yaseVietnam kanye nempahla ukuthi ijabulele ukuphathwa ngokungakhokhiswa intela lapho ithunyelwa e-EU; isivumelwano sohwebo phakathi kwamazwe amabili okwafinyelelwa kuso ne-US siphinde sinikeze izimo zentela ezikhethwa kakhulu ukuze imikhiqizo yayo ingene emakethe yase-US. Ngokuphambene, eminye yemikhiqizo yendwangu yaseShayina isabhekene nentela ethile noma izithiyo zobuchwepheshe lapho ithunyelwa e-EU nase-US Ukwengeza, uhulumeni wase-Vietnamese uye washeshisa ukuthuthukiswa kwesakhiwo esigcwele seketango lezimboni (esimboza ukuphotha, ukuluka, ukudaya, nokukhiqizwa kwezingubo) ngokusungula amapaki ezimboni zendwangu kanye nokunikeza izinxephezelo zentela (isb. ukukhululwa kanye nokwehliswa ngo-50% eminyakeni engu-9 eyalandela). Ngo-2024, izinga lendawo elisekelayo lochungechunge lwezimboni zendwangu yaseVietnam lase likhuphuke lisuka ku-45% ngo-2019 laya ku-68%, lehlisa kakhulu ukuthembela kwalo ezindwangu eziphuma kwamanye amazwe nezinye izinto ezisetshenziswayo, lifinyeza imijikelezo yokukhiqiza, kanye nokuthuthukisa ijubane lokuphendula lokuhleleka.
Le nzuzo yezimboni iguqulwe ngokuqondile yaba ukwanda okusheshayo kwesabelo semakethe yamazwe ngamazwe. Ikakhulukazi uma kuqhathaniswa nesizinda sokungaqiniseki okuqhubekayo ekuhwebeni kwendwangu yase-China-US, umphumela wemakethe wokushintsha i-Vietnam e-China usuvele ugqame kakhulu. Imininingwane mayelana nempahla ethengwayo yase-US kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi 2025 ikhombisa ukuthi isabelo se-China sezimpahla ezithengwayo zase-US sehle safinyelela ku-17.2%, kwathi iVietnam yadlula i-China okokuqala ngqa ngesabelo esingu-17.5%. Ngemuva kwale datha kukhona ukwehla nokugeleza kokuncintisana phakathi kwamazwe amabili ezigabeni ezihlukene. Ngokukhethekile, iVietnam ikhombise ukuncintisana okumangalisayo emikhakheni edinga abasebenzi abaningi njengezingubo zikakotini nezingubo ezinithiwe: emakethe yase-US, intengo yeyunithi yezikibha zikakotini ezithunyelwa yiVietnam iphansi ngo-8% -12% kunaleyo yemikhiqizo efanayo yamaShayina, futhi umjikelezo wokulethwa omaphakathi ufinyezwa ngezinsuku eziyi-5-7. Lokhu kugqugquzele abathengisi base-US abafana ne-Walmart kanye ne-Target ukuthi bashintshe ama-oda ezimpahla zesitayela esiyisisekelo baye e-Vietnam. Emkhakheni wezingubo ezisebenzayo, iVietnam nayo isheshisa ukubamba kwayo. Ngokwethula imigqa yokukhiqiza ethuthukisiwe evela e-China naseNingizimu Korea, umthamo wokuthekelisa kwezimpahla zezemidlalo udlule ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-8 ngo-2024, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-18%, okuqhubekisela phambili ukuphambukisa ama-oda wezingubo zezemidlalo ezisezingeni eliphakathi ukuya kwephansi okwakungeye-China ekuqaleni.
Emabhizinisini athekelisa izindwangu zaseShayina ezihwebelana ngaphandle, ingcindezi yokuncintisana evela eVietnam ayibonakali nje kuphela ekumpintsheni isabelo semakethe kodwa futhi iphoqa amabhizinisi aseShayina ukuthi asheshise uguquko lwawo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanye amabhizinisi endwangu aseShayina athembele emakethe yase-US ephakathi nendawo ukuya kwephansi abhekene nenkinga yokulahleka kwe-oda kanye nokuncipha kwesilinganiso senzuzo. Amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo, ikakhulukazi, awanazo izinzuzo zomkhiqizo namandla okuxoxisana, okuwabeka endaweni yokungenzi lutho emqhudelwaneni wamanani namabhizinisi aseVietnam. Kufanele bagcine ukusebenza ngokunciphisa izilinganiso zenzuzo noma ngokulungisa ukwakheka kwamakhasimende abo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lo mncintiswano uqhubekisele phambili ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yendwangu yaseShayina ekuthuthukisweni okusezingeni eliphezulu nehlukanisiwe: inani elikhulayo lamabhizinisi aseShayina seliqalile ukwandisa utshalomali lwe-R&D ezindwangu eziluhlaza (njenge-polyester egaywe kabusha nokotini we-organic) kanye nezinto zokusebenza (njengezindwangu ezilwa namagciwane nezindwangu ezihlakaniphile zokulawula izinga lokushisa). Ngo-2024, umthamo wokuthekelisa wemikhiqizo yendwangu egaywe kabusha yaseShayina ukhuphuke ngo-23% unyaka nonyaka, wedlula izinga lokukhula eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwendwangu kwamanye amazwe. Ngaso leso sikhathi, amabhizinisi aseShayina aphinde aqinise ukuqwashisa ngemikhiqizo, athuthukise ukuqashelwa kwemikhiqizo yawo ezimakethe zaseYurophu naseMelika ezisezingeni eliphezulu ngokuhlanganyela emibukisweni yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokubambisana nabaklami baphesheya kwezilwandle, ukuze kuqedwe "ukuncika kwe-OEM" futhi kuncishiswe ukuthembela emakethe eyodwa kanye nomncintiswano wamanani aphansi.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukukhuphuka kwemboni yendwangu yaseVietnam sekuyinto eguquguqukayo ebalulekile ekubumbeni kabusha iphethini yemakethe yezindwangu yomhlaba wonke. Ukuncintisana kwayo neShayina akuwona "umdlalo we-zero-sum" kodwa amandla okushayela izinhlangothi zombili ukuze kuzuzwe intuthuko ehlukene kuzixhumanisi ezihlukene zochungechunge lwezimboni. Uma amabhizinisi endwangu yaseShayina ekwazi ukusebenzisa ithuba lokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni futhi akhe imigoqo emisha encintisanayo ezindaweni ezifana ne-R&D yezobuchwepheshe, ukwakhiwa komkhiqizo, kanye nokukhiqizwa okuluhlaza, kusalindeleke ukuthi ahlanganise izinzuzo zawo emakethe yezindwangu esezingeni eliphezulu. Kodwa-ke, esikhathini esifushane, ingcindezi yokuncintisana yaseVietnam emakethe ephakathi kuya ephansi izoqhubeka. Uhwebo lwangaphandle lwezindwangu lwaseShayina ludinga ukuqhubeka nokuthuthukisa ukwakheka kwemakethe, lwandise izimakethe ezisafufusa eduze kwe-“Belt and Road,” futhi luthuthukise ukusebenzisana kahle kochungechunge lwezimboni ukuze lubhekane nezinselele ezintsha emqhudelwaneni wezimakethe zomhlaba.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-15-2025