Muva nje, uhulumeni wase-US uqhubekile nokwenyusa inqubomgomo yakhe “yentela yokubuyisana”, okuhlanganisa ngokusemthethweni i-Bangladesh ne-Sri Lanka ohlwini lwezijeziso kanye nokubeka amanani entengo aphezulu angama-37% nama-44% ngokulandelana. Lesi sinyathelo asiphathanga nje kuphela “igalelo ebekuhlosiwe” ezinhlelweni zezomnotho zala mazwe womabili, athembele kakhulu ekuthunyelweni kwendwangu, kodwa futhi kubangele ukusabela kochungechunge ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwendwangu emhlabeni wonke. Imboni yendwangu yasekhaya yase-US nayo ibanjwe yingcindezi ekabili yezindleko ezikhuphukayo kanye nesiyaluyalu sokuthengwa kwempahla.
I. I-Bangladesh: Ukuthunyelwa Kwendwangu Kulahlekelwa U-$3.3 Bilion, Izigidi Zemisebenzi Esengozini
Njengomdayisi wezimpahla wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, imboni yendwangu nezingubo “iwumzila wokuphila kwezomnotho” waseBangladesh. Le mboni inikela ngama-11% esamba se-GDP yezwe, ama-84% esamba sesamba sayo sokuthumela ngaphandle, futhi iqhuba ngokuqondile ukuqashwa kwabantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezine (ama-80% abo okungabasebenzi besifazane). Iphinde yeseke ngendlela engaqondile impilo yabantu abangaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-15 kumaketanga ezimboni ezikhuphuka nomfula. I-United States iyimakethe yesibili enkulu kunazo zonke e-Bangladesh ngemuva kwe-European Union. Ngo-2023, ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu nezingubo zase-Bangladesh e-US kwafinyelela ku-$6.4 billion, okuhlanganisa ngaphezu kuka-95% wesamba sayo esithunyelwa e-US, okuhlanganisa izimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokushesha ezisuka maphakathi kuya ekupheleni njengezikibha, amajini, namahembe, futhi zisebenza njengomthombo wokuthengiswa kwezitolo zaseMelika kanye neTarget.
Ukubeka kwe-US intela engu-37% emikhiqizweni yase-Bangladeshi kulokhu kusho ukuthi isikibha sikakotini esivela e-Bangladesh, ekuqaleni esasinezindleko ezingu-$10 kanye nenani lokuthekelisa elingu-$15, kuzodingeka ukuthi sikhokhe enye intela engu-$5.55 ngemva kokungena emakethe yase-US, siphushe izindleko eziphelele zifike ku-$20.55 ngokuqondile. Embonini yendwangu yase-Bangladesh, ethembele “emalini ephansi nencane yenzuzo yenzuzo” njengenzuzo eyinhloko yokuncintisana, leli zinga lentela lidlule kude isilinganiso senzuzo yebhizinisi esiyisilinganiso esingu-5% -8%. Ngokwezilinganiso ze-Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), ngemuva kokuthi amanani entengo eqala ukusebenza, ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu yezwe e-US kuzokwehla kusuka ku-$6.4 billion njalo ngonyaka kuye cishe ku-$3.1 billion, nokulahlekelwa minyaka yonke okungafika ku-$3.3 billion—okulingana nokuphuca ingxenye yemakethe yezindwangu yezwe cishe ingxenye yengxenye yemakethe yezwe yase-US.
Okubaluleke nakakhulu, ukwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubangele igagasi lokudilizwa embonini. Kuze kube manje, amafekthri endwangu amancane naphakathi nendawo angama-27 e-Bangladesh ayeke ukukhiqiza ngenxa yama-oda alahlekile, okubangele ukungasebenzi kwabasebenzi ababalelwa ku-18,000. I-BGMEA ixwayise ngokuthi uma amanani entengo ehlala ekhona isikhathi esingaphezu kwezinyanga eziyisithupha, izimboni ezingaphezu kuka-50 ezweni lonke zizovala, futhi isibalo sabantu abangasebenzi singase sidlule i-100,000, okuphinde kube nomthelela ekuzinzeni komphakathi kanye nokuvikeleka kokuziphilisa kwabantu ezweni. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imboni yendwangu yase-Bangladesh incike kakhulu ukotini othengwa kwamanye amazwe (cishe u-90% kakotini udinga ukuthengwa e-US naseNdiya). Ukwehla okukhulu kwemali etholwayo emazweni angaphandle kuzophinde kuholele ekushodeleni kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe, okuzophazamisa ikhono lezwe lokungenisa impahla eluhlaza njengokotini nokudala umjikelezo ononya “wokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe → ukushoda kwezinto ezingavuthiwe → ukuncipha kwamandla”.
II. ESri Lanka: I-44% Yentela Yephula Izindleko Eziphansi, Imboni Yezinsika Emngceleni "we-Chain Breakage"
Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-Bangladesh, imboni yendwangu yaseSri Lanka incane ngokwesilinganiso kodwa ngokulinganayo “iyitshe legumbi” lomnotho wayo wezwe. Imboni yendwangu nezingubo inikela ngamaphesenti angu-5 e-GDP yezwe kanye nama-45% wesamba sayo esiphelele sokuthekelisa, nabasebenzi abaqondile abangaphezu kuka-300,000, okuyenza ibe imboni ewumgogodla wokusimama komnotho waseSri Lanka ngemva kwempi. Ukuthunyelwa kwayo e-US kubuswa yizindwangu ezisezingeni eliphakathi kuya kwephezulu kanye nezingubo ezisebenzayo (njengezingubo zemidlalo nezangaphansi). Ngo-2023, ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu yase-Sri Lanka e-US kwafinyelela ku-$1.8 billion, okuhlanganisa u-7% wemakethe yokungenisa yase-US yezindwangu ezisezingeni eliphakathi ukuya phezulu.
Ukwenyuka kwe-US kwezinga lentela lase-Sri Lanka laya ku-44% kulokhu kuyenza ibe ngelinye lamazwe anezinga eliphezulu lentela kulo mzuliswano “wezindleko ezifanayo”. Ngokocwaningo lwe-Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA), leli zinga lentela lizokhuphula ngokuqondile izindleko zokuthekelisa kwezindwangu zezwe cishe ngo-30%. Uma sithatha umkhiqizo wokuthekelisa ohamba phambili wase-Sri Lanka—“indwangu yezingubo zikakotini eziphilayo”—njengesibonelo, intengo yokuqala yokuthekelisa imitha ngayinye yayingu-$8. Ngemva kokwenyuka kwentela, izindleko zikhuphuke zafinyelela ku-$11.52, kuyilapho izindleko zemikhiqizo efanayo engeniswe eNdiya naseVietnam ziyi-$9-$10 kuphela. Ukuncintisana kwentengo yemikhiqizo yaseSri Lankan sekucishe kwaphela ngokuphelele.
Njengamanje, inani lamabhizinisi athumela ngaphandle eSri Lanka athole “izaziso zokumiswa kwama-oda” kumakhasimende ase-US. Isibonelo, i-Brandix Group, umkhiqizi omkhulu wezimpahla waseSri Lanka, ekuqaleni wakhiqiza izingubo zangaphansi ezisebenzayo zohlobo lwezemidlalo lwase-US oluthi Under Armor ngevolumu ye-oda yanyanga zonke yezingcezu ezingu-500,000. Manje, ngenxa yezinkinga zezindleko zentela, i-Under Armor idlulisele ama-30% ama-oda ayo ezimbonini zaseVietnam. Enye inkampani, uHirdaramani, ithe uma amanani entengo enganyuswa, ibhizinisi layo lokuthumela e-US lizolahlekelwa yizinyanga ezintathu, futhi lingaphoqeleka ukuthi livale izimboni ezimbili eziseColombo, ezithinta imisebenzi eyi-8,000. Ukwengeza, imboni yezindwangu yaseSri Lanka incike kumodeli “yokucubungula ngezinto ezithengwa kwamanye amazwe” (izinto ezingavuthiwe ezingenisiwe zibalelwa ku-70% wesamba). Ukuvinjwa kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuzoholela ekusaleleni kwempahla esetshenziswayo, kudle izimali zokusebenza zamabhizinisi futhi kubhebhethekise nakakhulu ubunzima bawo bokusebenza.
III. Umkhakha Wasekhaya wase-US: Isiyaluyalu Sokuhlinzeka Ngempahla + Izindleko Ezikhuphukayo, Imboni Ibanjwe “Enkingeni”
Inqubomgomo kahulumeni wase-US yentela, ebonakala iqondise “abaqhudelana nabo phesheya kwezilwandle”, empeleni isibangele “ukuhlehla” embonini yasekhaya yendwangu nezingubo. Njengomthengi omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni wezindwangu nezingubo (enenani lokungenisa eliyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-120 ngo-2023), imboni yendwangu nezingubo yase-US yethula iphethini “yokukhiqizwa kwasekhaya okukhuphuka nomfula kanye nokuncika kokungenisa kwamanye amazwe”—amabhizinisi asekhaya ikakhulukazi akhiqiza izinto ezingavuthiwe ezifana nezicucu zikakotini namakhemikhali, kuyilapho u-90% wemikhiqizo yezingubo eziqediwe ithembele ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe. I-Bangladesh ne-Sri Lanka iyimithombo ebalulekile yezimpahla zokugqoka ezisuka maphakathi kuya kwephansi kanye nezindwangu ezisezingeni eliphakathi kuya phezulu zase-US.
Ukwenyuka kwentela kukhuphule ngokuqondile izindleko zokuthengwa kwezimpahla zamabhizinisi asekhaya ase-US. Ucwaningo olwenziwa yi-American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) lukhombisa ukuthi isilinganiso senzuzo yesilinganiso sabahlinzeki bezindwangu nezimpahla base-US singama-3% -5% kuphela njengamanje. Inani lentengo elingu-37% -44% lisho ukuthi amabhizinisi “azitholela izindleko ngokwawo” (okuholela ekulahlekelweni) noma “azidlulisele ukuze aqede amanani”. Uma sithatha u-JC Penney, umthengisi wasekhaya wase-US, njengesibonelo, intengo yokuqala yokudayisa yamajini athengwe e-Bangladesh yayingu-$49.9. Ngemuva kokukhushulwa kwentela, uma umkhawulo wenzuzo uzogcinwa, intengo yokudayisa idinga ukukhuphuka ibe ngu-$68.9, okuwukunyuka okucishe kube ngama-40%. Uma intengo inganyuswanga, inzuzo ngepheya ngalinye lebhulukwe izokwehla isuka ku-$3 iye ku-$0.5, ingashiyi cishe inzuzo.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukungaqiniseki kwe-supply chain kufake amabhizinisi “enkingeni yokwenza izinqumo”. U-Julia Hughes, uMongameli we-AAFA, uveze engqungqutheleni yakamuva yezimboni ukuthi amabhizinisi ase-US ekuqaleni ayehlele ukunciphisa ubungozi “ngokushintshanisa izindawo zokuthenga” (njengokudlulisa ama-oda athile esuka e-China aye e-Bangladesh naseSri Lanka). Nokho, ukwenyuka okungazelelwe kwenqubomgomo yentela kuye kwaphazamisa zonke izinhlelo: “Amabhizinisi awazi ukuthi yiliphi izwe elizolandela ukukhushulwa kwentela, futhi akazi ukuthi amanani entela azohlala isikhathi esingakanani. Njengamanje, u-35% wabangenisi bezimpahla base-US bathe "bazomisa ukusayinwa kwama-oda amasha", kanti ama-28% amabhizinisi aseqalile ukuhlola kabusha amaketanga awo wokunikezela, ecabangela ukudlulisela ama-oda emazweni aseMexico naseMelika Ephakathi angamboziwe amanani entengo. Kodwa-ke, umthamo wokukhiqiza kulezi zifunda unomkhawulo (ukwazi kuphela ukungenisa u-15% wezimpahla zezimpahla zase-US), okwenza kube nzima ukugcwalisa igebe lemakethe elishiywe yi-Bangladesh ne-Sri Lanka esikhathini esifushane.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, abathengi base-US ekugcineni "bazokhokha umthethosivivinywa". Idatha evela e-US Bureau of Labor Statistics ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2024, i-US Consumer Price Index (CPI) yezimpahla zokugqoka inyuke ngo-3.2% unyaka nonyaka. Ukuvutshelwa okuqhubekayo kwenqubomgomo yentela kungase kuholele ekunyukeni okwengeziwe ngo-5% -7% kumanani ezimpahla zokugqoka ekupheleni konyaka, kuqhubeke kushube umfutho wokwehla kwamandla emali. Emaqenjini anemali ephansi, izindleko zezimpahla zokugqoka zibalelwa engxenyeni ephezulu kakhulu yemali engenayo etholakalayo (cishe u-8%), futhi amanani akhuphukayo azothinta ngqo umthamo wawo wokusebenzisa, ngaleyo ndlela kuncishiswe isidingo semakethe yezimpahla yasekhaya yase-US.
IV. Ukwakhiwa kabusha kwe-Global Textile Supply Chain: Izinxushunxushu Zesikhathi Esifushane kanye Nokulungiswa Kwesikhathi Eside
Ukwenyuka kwentela yase-US e-Bangladesh nase-Sri Lanka empeleni kuyi-microcosm “ye-geopoliticization” yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezindwangu emhlabeni wonke. Esikhathini esifushane, le nqubomgomo iholele “ekungabini lutho” ochungechungeni lomhlaba wonke lokuhlinzeka ngezimpahla zezimpahla ezisezingeni eliphansi - ukulahleka kwe-oda e-Bangladesh naseSri Lanka akukwazi ukumuncwa ngokuphelele amanye amazwe esikhathini esifushane, okungase kubangele “ukushoda kwempahla” kwabanye abathengisi base-US. Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukwehla kwezimboni zendwangu kulawa mazwe womabili kuzophinde kuthinte isidingo sempahla eluhlaza ekhuphuka nomfula njengokotini nemicu yamakhemikhali, okubangela umthelela ongaqondile emazweni athekelisa ukotini njenge-US ne-India.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezindwangu emhlabeni wonke lungasheshisa ukulungiswa kwalo maqondana “nokusondela” kanye “nokwehlukahlukana”: Amabhizinisi ase-US angase adlulisele ama-oda e-Mexico nase-Canada (ejabulela izintandokazi zentela ngaphansi kweSivumelwano Sokuhweba Esikhululekile saseNyakatho Melika), amabhizinisi ase-Europe angase andise ukuthengwa kwempahla evela eTurkey naseMorocco, kuyilapho amabhizinisi endwangu yaseShayina engase adlulisele ama-oda e-industrial aphelele “ ukukhiqizwa komkhiqizo), kungathatha ama-oda athile aphakathi kuya kwephezulu (njengendwangu esebenzayo nezingubo ezivumelana nemvelo) adluliswe esuka e-Bangladesh nase-Sri Lanka. Kodwa-ke, le nqubo yokulungisa izothatha isikhathi (isilinganiso seminyaka engu-1-2) futhi izohambisana nezindleko ezikhuphukile zokwakhiwa kabusha kwe-supply chain, okwenza kube nzima ukudambisa ngokugcwele izinxushunxushu zamanje zemboni esikhathini esifushane.
Emabhizinisini okuhweba ngezindwangu zaseShayina angaphandle, lomjikelezo wesiyaluyalu sentengo uletha zombili izinselelo (ezidinga ukubhekana nesidingo esibuthakathaka somhlaba wonke kanye nokuncintisana kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka) kanye namathuba afihliwe. Bangakwazi ukuqinisa ukubambisana nezimboni zasendaweni e-Bangladesh nase-Sri Lanka (njengokuhlinzeka ngosekelo lobuchwepheshe nokukhiqiza ngokuhlanganyela) ukuze kugwenywe izithiyo zentela zase-US. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, bangakhuphula imizamo yokuhlola izimakethe ezisafufusa njengeNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kanye ne-Afrika, banciphise ukuncika emakethe eyodwa eYurophu nase-US, ngaleyo ndlela bathole isikhundla esivumayo ekwakhiweni kabusha kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-16-2025