Muva nje, imakethe yokuhweba kakotini yamazwe ngamazwe ibone izinguquko ezinkulu zesakhiwo. Ngokwemininingwane yokuqapha egunyaziwe evela e-China Cotton Net, ukubhukha ukotini wase-US Pima ngohlelo lokuthunyelwa ngo-August 2025 belulokhu lukhula ngokuqhubekayo, okube ngenye yezinto ezibalulekile okugxilwe kuzo emkhakheni wamanje wokuhwebelana ngendwangu eluhlaza. Ngokuya ngemininingwane ethile yokwenziwe, ukubhukha kwamanje ikakhulukazi okotini wase-US Pima wamabanga angu-11-2 nangu-21-2. Lawa mabanga amabili akotini we-Pima, abonakala ngobude befayibha ende (imvamisa engu-35-45 mm), amandla aphezulu, ukucoleka okufanayo, ukusebenza kahle kokudaya, kanye nokucwebezela kwendwangu, ayizinto zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko zezindwangu zendwangu esezingeni eliphezulu (njengezindwangu zamahembe anenani eliphezulu neziqinile, izindwangu zasekhaya zikanokusho, nezingubo zemidlalo ezisezingeni eliphezulu). Izimakethe zabo zikhombisa ngqo izinguquko ezidingekayo ochungechungeni lwemboni yendwangu esezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni.
Ukukhula kokubhukha ukotini wase-US Pima kuqhutshwa inhlanganisela yenqubomgomo eminingi kanye nezici zesidingo semakethe, ezingahlaziywa kusukela kumacala amathathu:
I. Ukwelulwa Kwenkokhelo Yentela Yase-China-US: Ukunciphisa Izindleko Zohwebo kanye Nokuvulwa Kwesidingo Sokuthenga
Ngaphambilini, kwakukhona ukungaqiniseki ezinqubweni zentela yezimpahla zokusetshenziswa zendwangu kanye nemikhiqizo phakathi kweChina ne-United States. Ngenxa yokukhathazeka mayelana nokukhuphuka kwezindleko zentela, ezinye izinkampani zendwangu kakotini zaseShayina zamukela isu “le-oda elincane, eline-oda elifushane” lokuthenga ukotini we-US Pima, ngombono oqinile wokulinda nokubona. Ukwandiswa kwakamuva kwezinsuku ezingama-90 kokumiswa kwentela yase-China-US kusho ukuthi phakathi nalesi sikhathi, amabhizinisi aseShayina angaqhubeka nokujabulela izintandokazi zentela yokuqala lapho engenisa ukotini wase-US Pima, ngaphandle kokuthwala izindleko ezengeziwe zentela, ezinciphisa ngokuqondile ubungozi bezezimali bokuthengwa kwempahla eluhlaza.
Ngokombono we-industrial chain transmission logic, ukunwetshwa kokumiswa kwentela kunikeza amabhizinisi ngefasitela elicacile lokuthenga: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amabhizinisi endwangu kakotini angakwazi ukukhiya ama-oda kakotini we-Pima weshejuli yokuthunyelwa kuka-August ukuze agcinele izinto zokusetshenziswa ezisezingeni eliphezulu kusengaphambili, ukugwema ukukhuphuka kwezindleko okungase kube khona okubangelwa izinguquko ezilandelayo kuzinqubomgomo zentela. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amabhizinisi ahwebayo nawo andise imizamo yawo yokubhukha, eqongelela izimpahla ngokuthenga ngobuningi ukuze ahlinzeke ngokuzinza kwempahla eluhlaza yezigayo zendwangu kanye nemikhiqizo yezingubo. Lokhu kwakha amandla amabili aqhuba ukuthengwa kwezimpahla “amabhizinisi aqoqa ngokuqhubekayo + abathengisi abaqongelela izimpahla,” okukhuthaza ngokuqondile ukukhuphuka kokubhukha kweshejuli yokuthunyelwa yango-August.
II. Ukubekwa Okugxilisiwe Kwama-oda KaKhisimusi WaseYurophu nawaseMelika: Isidingo Esishukumisayo Sezindwangu Ezisezingeni Eliphezulu kanye Nokuthengwa Kwempahla Engavuthiwe Yokushayela
U-Agasti kuya ku-Okthoba unyaka ngamunye yisikhathi esiphezulu sokufaka ama-oda kaKhisimusi ezimakethe zaseYurophu nezaseMelika. Phakathi nalo mjikelezo, izinhlobo zezimpahla zezimpahla zaseYurophu nezaseMelika kanye nabathengisi kudingeka baqedele ukuthengwa, ukukhiqizwa, kanye nokuthuthwa kwemikhiqizo yenkathi kaKhisimusi (njengezingubo zokugqoka ezisezingeni eliphezulu, izingubo zamaholide, nezindwangu zasekhaya eziyisipho), okuholela ekukhuleni kwesizini kwesidingo sempahla yokusetshenziswa yendwangu esezingeni eliphezulu.
Ngokukhethekile, abathengi baseYurophu nabaseMelika banezidingo zekhwalithi ephezulu kakhulu yezingubo zenkathi kaKhisimusi uma kuqhathaniswa nemikhiqizo yansuku zonke. Ikakhulukazi emakethe ephakathi kuya kwephezulu, isidingo sezindwangu ezenziwe nge-Pima cotton sinamandla. Isibonelo, uhlobo lwezimpahla eziwubukhazikhazi baseYurophu ludinga ngokucacile ukuthi izindwangu zamahembe alo kakhisimusi okhawulelwe edishini lulukwe nge-US Pima cotton ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuthungwa kwemikhiqizo. Imikhiqizo yendwangu yasekhaya esezingeni eliphezulu e-United States iphinda inyuse ukuthengwa kwezingubo zokulala zikakotini ze-Pima ngalesi sikhathi ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo sokusetshenziswa kwamaholide. Ukufakwa kwama-oda anjalo kushayela ngokuqondile isidingo sokuthengwa kwezigayo zendwangu ezansi nomfula zentambo kakotini yezinga eliphezulu, kanye nokotini wase-US Pima, njengowoyela owumgogodla wentambo kakotini esezingeni eliphezulu, ngokwemvelo uba yinketho yokuqala emabhizinisini, ngaleyo ndlela kukhuthaze ukwanda okukhulu kokubhukha kweshejuli yokuthunyelwa kuka-August (uhlelo lokuthunyelwa lufana nomjikelezo wokukhiqiza we-oda: ukuphotha udayi, ukuphotha nokuphotha ngaphansi kuka-September Okthoba, kanye nemikhiqizo yezingubo eziqediwe ingalethwa ngaphambi kukaNovemba ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi isemashalofini ngaphambi kukaKhisimusi).
III. Okulindelekile Okukhulayo “Kokuthunyelwa Kwempahla Ngokushesha” Embonini Yendwangu Kakotini yaseChina: Ukwakheka Kusengaphambili Ukuze Kuthathwe Isabelo Semakethe
Ngokusekelwe kumathrendi amanje emakethe, imboni ngokuvamile ilindele ukuthi imboni yendwangu kakotini nezingubo zokugqoka yaseShayina izoletha umjikelezo omusha “wokuthunyelwa ngaphandle ngokushesha” okuqhutshwa yilezi zici eziningi ezinhle. Kusuka kudatha yomlando, ngenxa yenqubomgomo efanayo nokugqagqana kwesidingo esikhathini esifanayo sika-2024, inani lokuthekelisa lemikhiqizo yendwangu esezingeni eliphezulu yaseShayina lenyuke ngo-12% unyaka nonyaka, nengxenye yokuthunyelwa kwezindwangu ezisebenzisa ukotini wase-US Pima ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-18%. Engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka wezi-2025, ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla zendwangu nezingubo zaseShayina kakade sekuzuze ukukhula okungu-0.8% unyaka nonyaka, okubonisa ukuqina okuphawulekayo kokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe futhi kwabeka isisekelo “sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngokushesha” engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.
Ngokumelene nokwasemuva kokukhuphuka kokulindelekile “kokuthunyelwa ngokushesha”, amabhizinisi endwangu kakotini aseShayina asebenzise isu elisebenzayo: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amabhizinisi aqinisekisa inqubekelaphambili yokukhiqizwa kwezindwangu ezisezingeni eliphezulu ngokukhiya ama-oda kakotini wase-US Pima weshejuli yokuthunyelwa ka-August kusengaphambili, ukugwema ukubambezeleka kokulethwa kwe-oda ngenxa yokushoda kwempahla eluhlaza. Ikakhulukazi, amakhasimende aseYurophu nawaseMelika anezidingo eziqinile kumashejuli wokulethwa kwe-oda; ukubambezeleka okubangelwa izinto zokusetshenziswa ezinganele kungaholela emonakalweni oqediwe noma ekukhanselweni kwe-oda. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amabhizinisi athile nawo akhuphule umthamo wawo wokuthenga ukotini we-Pima ukuze andise umthamo wokukhiqiza wezindwangu ezisezingeni eliphezulu, ukuze zenze ama-oda kaKhisimusi amaningi aseYurophu naseMelika futhi athathe isabelo semakethe. Isibonelo, indawo yokugaya indwangu e-Zhejiang isanda kwandisa umthamo wayo wokuthengwa kukakotini wase-US Pima ngo-30%, ikakhulukazi ukuze kukhiqizwe izindwangu zamahembe asezingeni eliphezulu athunyelwa e-Europe, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ingeze amayadi ayizigidi ezingu-2 zama-oda okuthunyelwa kwendwangu.
Uma sibheka phambili enkambisweni yemakethe elandelayo, isidingo sikakotini we-US Pima sizohlala sisezingeni eliphezulu esikhathini esifushane (August kuya ku-Okthoba): Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isidingo sokuthengwa kwempahla ngesikhathi sokumiswa kwentela sizoqhubeka nokukhishwa, futhi ukubhukha kweshejuli yokuthunyelwa kukaSepthemba kungase kukhule nakakhulu. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umjikelezo wokukhiqiza wama-oda kaKhisimusi waseYurophu naseMelika uzoqhubeka kuze kube ngu-Okthoba, ngakho-ke isidingo sokuthengwa kwe-Pima ukotini ngeke sehle ngokushesha. Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi uma kukhona izinguquko ezilandelanayo kuzinqubomgomo zentela yase-China-US noma uma isidingo sokusetshenziswa kukakhisimusi wase-Europe naseMelika sifikelelwa kulokho okulindelekile, kungase kube nomthelela othile esidingweni semakethe sikakotini we-US Pima. Amabhizinisi endwangu kakotini aseShayina asadinga ukuqapha ngokucophelela inqubomgomo kanye nokuguquguquka kwemakethe, ukulawula ngokunengqondo uhlu lwempahla eluhlaza, nokulinganisela izindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla kanye nobungozi bemakethe.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhula ekubhukheni kukakotini we-Pima wase-US nakho kukhombisa inkambiso ebalulekile ochungechungeni lwemboni yendwangu yomhlaba wonke: ngokumelene nesizinda sokuthuthukiswa kokusetshenziswa, ukuqina kwesidingo sempahla eluhlaza yendwangu ephezulu kakhulu kuphezulu kakhulu kunaleyo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezimaphakathi kuya kwephansi. Uma amabhizinisi endwangu kakotini aseShayina engakwazi ngokuqhubekayo ukuthuthukisa amakhono awo okuthenga nokusebenzisa izinto zokusetshenziswa ezisezingeni eliphezulu, azoba usizo kakhulu ekuthuthukiseni ukuncintisana kwawo emakethe yezindwangu esezingeni eliphezulu futhi abeke isisekelo sokuqhubeka nokwandisa izimakethe ezisezingeni eliphezulu njenge-Europe, America, Japan, neNingizimu Korea esikhathini esizayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-25-2025