Ukuphazamiseka kokungqubuzana kwe-geopolitical ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla yohwebo lwendwangu kufana nokubeka “isici esivimbelayo” emithanjeni yegazi ekuqaleni ebushelelezi yohwebo lomhlaba, futhi umthelela wako ungena ezigabeni eziningi ezifana nezokuthutha, izindleko, ukufika ngesikhathi, kanye nemisebenzi yebhizinisi.
1. “Ukuphuka nokuchezuka” kwemizila yezokuthutha: Ukubheka ukusabela kochungechunge lwemizila esuka enhlekeleleni yoLwandle Olubomvu
Ukuhweba ngendwangu kuncike kakhulu kwezokuthutha zasolwandle, ikakhulukazi imizila ebalulekile exhuma e-Asia, eYurophu nase-Afrika. Uma sithatha isibonelo senhlekelele yoLwandle Olubomvu, “njengomphimbo” wemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke, uLwandle Olubomvu kanye neSuez Canal zithwala cishe u-12% wenani lezohwebo lezohwebo emhlabeni, futhi kuyimigudu ewumgogodla yokuthunyelwa kwendwangu yase-Asia eYurophu nase-Afrika. Isimo esishubile oLwandle Olubomvu esidalwe ukwanda kwezingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kanye nokushuba kodweshu phakathi kweLebanon ne-Israel kuholele ekubhebhethekeni kwengozi yokuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi yabahwebi. Kusukela ngo-2024, imikhumbi yabathengisi engaphezu kwe-30 oLwandle Olubomvu ihlaselwe ngama-drones noma imicibisholo. Ukuze kugwenywe izingozi, izikhondlakhondla eziningi zemikhumbi yamazwe ngamazwe (ezifana ne-Maersk ne-Mediterranean Shipping) ziye zamemezela ukumiswa komzila wasoLwandle Olubomvu futhi zakhetha ukuchezukela eCape of Good Hope e-Afrika.
Umthelela walokhu “kuchezuka” ekuhwebeni kwendwangu uyashesha: uhambo lwangempela olusuka e-Yangtze River Delta kanye namachweba e-Pearl River Delta ukuya e-European Port of Rotterdam ngokusebenzisa i-Suez Canal luthathe cishe izinsuku ezingu-30, kodwa ngemva kokuchezuka eCape of Good Hope, uhambo lwanwetshwa lwaba yizinsuku ezingu-45-50, okwandisa isikhathi sokuthutha cishe ngo-50%. Ezindwangu ezinezinkathi zonyaka eziqinile (njengokotini olula nelineni ehlobo nezindwangu ezilukiwe ezifudumele ebusika), ukubambezeleka kwesikhathi kungase kuphuthelwe ngokuqondile isizini yokuthengisa ephezulu - isibonelo, amabhrendi ezimpahla zase-Europe ekuqaleni ayehlele ukuthola izindwangu zase-Asia futhi aqale ukukhiqizwa ngoDisemba 2024 ukulungiselela imikhiqizo emisha entwasahlobo ka-2025. izaphulelo.
2. Izindleko ezikhuphukayo: ukucindezela kweketango ukusuka ekuthuthweni kwempahla kuya ekufakweni kwempahla
Umphumela oqondile wokulungiswa komzila ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zokuthutha. NgoZibandlela wezi-2024, izinga lempahla yebhokisi elingamamitha angu-40 lisuka e-China liya e-Europe lenyuka lisuka cishe ku-$1,500 ngaphambi kwenhlekelele yoLwandle Olubomvu laya ngaphezu kuka-$4,500, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-200%; ngasikhathi sinye, ukwanda kwebanga lokuhamba ngomkhumbi okubangelwe ukuchezuka kuholele ekwehleni kwenani lemikhumbi, kanye nokushoda kwamandla omhlaba kuqhubekisele phambili izinga lempahla. Ngohwebo lwendwangu, olunemali ephansi yenzuzo (isilinganiso senzuzo yesilinganiso silinganiselwa ku-5% -8%), ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zezimpahla ezicindezela ngokuqondile umkhawulo wenzuzo - inkampani yokuthekelisa indwangu eShaoxing, eZhejiang, ibale ukuthi izindleko zezimpahla zeqoqo lezindwangu zikakotini ezithunyelwa eJalimane ngo-January 2025, zenyuka ngo-20020 ngesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2002020. okulingana no-60% wenzuzo ye-oda.
Ngaphezu komthwalo oqondile, izindleko ezingaqondile nazo zakhuphuka kanyekanye. Ukuze ubhekane nokubambezeleka kwezokuthutha, izinkampani zendwangu kufanele zilungiselele kusenesikhathi, okuholela ekushiyeni emuva kwempahla: engxenyeni yesine ka-2024, izinsuku zokutholwa kwezindwangu eziqoqweni ezinkulu zendwangu e-China zizonwetshwa zisuka ezinsukwini ezingama-35 ziye ezinsukwini ezingama-52, futhi izindleko zokusungula (njengemali yokugcina nenzalo emsebenzini omkhulu) zizokhuphuka cishe ngo-15%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezinye izindwangu (ezifana nosilika ophezulu kanye nezindwangu ezinwetshiwe) zinezidingo eziqinile endaweni yokugcina impahla. I-inventory yesikhathi eside ingase ibangele ukushintsha kombala kwendwangu kanye nokuncipha kokunwebeka, kuqhubeke kwandise ingozi yokulahlekelwa.
3. Ingozi yokuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla: “umphumela wovemvane” kusuka ezintweni ezingavuthiwe kuye ekukhiqizweni
Izingxabano ze-geopolitical zingase futhi zibangele ukuphazamiseka kweketango ekukhuphukeni nokwehla komfula ochungechungeni lwemboni yendwangu. Isibonelo, iYurophu iyisisekelo sokukhiqiza esibalulekile sezinto ezisetshenziswayo ze-fiber zamakhemikhali (njenge-polyester nenayiloni). Ukungqubuzana phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine kubangele ukushintshashintsha kwamanani entengo yamandla aseYurophu, futhi ezinye izitshalo zamakhemikhali ziye zanciphisa noma zamisa ukukhiqizwa. Ngo-2024, ukukhishwa kwe-polyester staple fibers eYurophu kuzokwehla ngo-12% unyaka nonyaka, kukhuphule intengo yezinto ezibonakalayo ze-fiber yamakhemikhali emhlabeni wonke, okuphinde kube nomthelela ezindlekweni zezinkampani ezikhiqiza indwangu ezithembele kule mali eluhlaza.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izici "zokubambisana kwezixhumanisi eziningi" zohwebo lwendwangu zenza kube nzima kakhulu ekuzinzeni kwe-supply chain. Ucezu lwendwangu kakotini ephrintiwe ethunyelwa e-United States ingase idinge ukungenisa intambo kakotini ivela e-India, idayi futhi iphrinte e-China, bese icutshungulwa ibe yindwangu eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, futhi ekugcineni ihanjiswe ngomzila woLwandle Olubomvu. Uma isixhumanisi sivinjwa izingxabano zezwe (njengokuthunyelwa kwentambo kakotini waseNdiya kukhawulelwe ngenxa yesiyaluyalu sezombusazwe), lonke uchungechunge lokukhiqiza luzontengantenga. Ngo-2024, ukuvinjelwa kokuthunyelwa kwentambo kakotini kwezinye izifundazwe zaseNdiya kwabangela izinkampani eziningi zaseShayina ezinyathelisayo nezokudaya ukuthi ziyeke ukukhiqiza ngenxa yokushoda kwezinto ezingavuthiwe, futhi izinga lokulibaziseka kokulethwa kwe-oda ladlula ama-30%. Ngenxa yalokho, amanye amakhasimende aphesheya aphendukela kwabanye abahlinzeki-mpahla abafana ne-Bangladesh ne-Vietnam, okuholele ekulahlekelweni kwamakhasimende isikhathi eside.
4. Ukulungiswa Kwesu Lebhizinisi: Ukusuka Ekuphenduleni Okungajwayelekile Kuya Ekwakhiweni Kabusha Okusebenzayo
Njengoba zibhekene nokuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain okubangelwa i-geopolitics, izinkampani ezihweba ngendwangu ziyaphoqeleka ukuthi zilungise amasu azo:
Izindlela zokuthutha ezehlukene: Ezinye izinkampani zandisa ingxenye yezitimela zaseChina-Europe kanye nezokuthutha emoyeni. Isibonelo, inani lezitimela ze-China-Europe zezindwangu zendwangu ezivela e-China kuya eYurophu ngo-2024 zizokhula ngo-40% unyaka nonyaka, kodwa izindleko zokuthutha ujantshi ziphindwe kathathu kunezokuthutha olwandle, ezisebenza kuphela ezindwangu eziphezulu ze-value-added (njengesilika nezindwangu zezemidlalo ezisebenzayo);
Ukuthengwa kwendawo: Khulisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla eluhlaza yasekhaya, njengokwenyusa izinga lokusebenzisa izinto zokusetshenziswa zasendaweni ezifana ne-Xinjiang ukotini wesisekelo eside kanye ne-Sichuan bamboo fiber, nokunciphisa ukuncika ezintweni zokusetshenziswa ezivela kwamanye amazwe;
Ukuhlelwa kwezindawo zokugcina izimpahla zaphesheya kwezilwandle: Misa izindawo zokugcina izimpahla eziya phambili eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia naseYurophu, gcina izinhlobo zendwangu ezivame ukusetshenziswa kusengaphambili, futhi unciphise imijikelezo yokulethwa - Ekuqaleni kuka-2025, inkampani yendwangu yaseZhejiang igcine amamitha ayizigidi ezingu-2 endwangu kakotini endaweni yayo yokugcina impahla yaphesheya kwezilwandle eVietnam, engasabela ngokushesha kuma-oda aphuthumayo avela emazweni aseNingizimu Asia.
Ngokuvamile, ukungqubuzana kwezwe kube nomthelela omkhulu ekuzinzeni kohwebo lwendwangu ngokuphazamisa imizila yezokuthutha, ukukhuphula izindleko, nokwephula imigudu yokuhlinzeka. Kumabhizinisi, lokhu kuyinselelo kanye namandla embonini ukuthi isheshise uguquko lwayo oluya “ekuguquguqukayo, ukwenziwa kwasendaweni, kanye nokuhlukahluka” ukuze imelane nomthelela wokungaqiniseki emhlabeni.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-26-2025