Ngo-Agasti 5, 2025, i-India ne-United Kingdom bethula ngokusemthethweni Isivumelwano Esibanzi Sezomnotho Nezohwebo (esibizwa kamuva ngokuthi “i-India-UK FTA”). Lokhu kubambisana okuyingqophamlando kwezohwebo akugcini nje ngokulungisa kabusha ubudlelwano bezomnotho nezokuhwebelana phakathi kwalawa mazwe womabili kodwa futhi kuthumela iziyaluyalu ngomkhakha wokuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe ngezindwangu. Izinhlinzeko “zero-tariff” zemboni yendwangu esivumelwaneni zibhala kabusha ngokuqondile isimo sokuncintisana semakethe yokungenisa izindwangu yase-UK, ikakhulukazi ebeka izinselelo ezingaba khona emabhizinisini okuthekelisa kwendwangu aseShayina osekunesikhathi eside ephethe imakethe.
Umongo Wesivumelwano: Izindleko Zero Ezigabeni Zendwangu eziyi-1,143, e-India Iqondise Imakethe Ekhulayo Yase-UK
Imboni yezindwangu igqame njengomunye wabahlomuli abakhulu be-India-UK FTA: izigaba zendwangu eziyi-1,143 (ezihlanganisa izingxenye ezinkulu ezifana nentambo kakotini, indwangu empunga, izingubo esezivele esenziwe kakade, nezindwangu zasekhaya) ezithunyelwa zisuka e-India ziya e-UK azikhishwe ngokugcwele ezinkokhelweni, okubalwa cishe u-85% wezigaba zombhalo osohlwini lwase-UK. Ngaphambi kwalokhu, imikhiqizo yendwangu yase-India engena emakethe yase-UK yayingaphansi kwentela esukela ku-5% kuya ku-12%, kuyilapho eminye imikhiqizo evela ezimbangini ezinkulu ezifana ne-China ne-Bangladesh isivele ithokozele amanani entela aphansi ngaphansi kwe-Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) noma izivumelwano zamazwe amabili.
Ukuqedwa okuphelele kwezintela kuye kwathuthukisa ngokuqondile ukuncintisana kwentengo yemikhiqizo yendwangu yaseNdiya emakethe yase-UK. Ngokwezibalo ze-Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), ngemuva kokususwa kwentela, intengo yezingubo zaseNdiya esenziwe ngomumo emakethe yase-UK ingancishiswa ngo-6% -8%. Igebe lentengo phakathi kwemikhiqizo yase-Indian kanye ne-Chinese 同类 lizoncipha lisuka kokungu-3% -5% liye ngaphansi kuka-1%, futhi eminye imikhiqizo esezingeni eliphakathi ukuya ephansi ingase izuze ukulingana kwentengo noma yedlule ozakwabo baseShayina.
Ngokwesilinganiso semakethe, i-UK ingeyesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni wokungenisa izindwangu eYurophu, enomthamo wonyaka wokungenisa izindwangu wama-USD 26.95 billion (idatha ka-2024). Phakathi kwalokhu, izingubo zibalelwa ku-62%, izindwangu zasekhaya zenza u-23%, izindwangu nezindwangu zingu-15%. Isikhathi eside, ngokuthembela ochungechungeni lwezimboni oluphelele, ikhwalithi ezinzile, kanye nezinzuzo ezinkulu, i-China ithathe u-28% wesabelo semakethe yokungenisa izindwangu yase-UK, okuyenza ibe umphakeli omkhulu wezindwangu wase-UK. Nakuba i-India ingeyesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngomkhiqizi wezindwangu, isabelo sayo emakethe yase-UK singu-6.6% kuphela, igxile kakhulu emikhiqizweni emaphakathi efana nendwangu kakotini nendwangu empunga, enenani eliphezulu impahla esele isilungile ekhishelwa ngaphandle kuka-30%.
Ukuqala ukusebenza kwe-India-UK FTA kuvule “iwindi lokukhula” embonini yendwangu yaseNdiya. Esitatimendeni esikhishwe ngemuva kokuthi isivumelwano siqale ukusebenza, uMnyango Wezendwangu waseNdiya uwubeke kwacaca umgomo wawo wokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu e-UK kusuka ku-USD 1.78 billion ngo-2024 kuya ku-USD 5 billion eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, kanti isabelo semakethe singaphezu kuka-18%. Lokhu kusho ukuthi i-India ihlela ukuphambukisa cishe amaphuzu angu-11.4 emalini ekhona emakethe, futhi i-China, njengomphakeli omkhulu kunabo bonke emakethe yase-UK, izoba inkomba yayo eyinhloko yokuncintisana.
Izinselelo Zemboni Yendwangu YaseChina: Ingcindezi Ezimakethe Ezimaphakathi Nezokuya-Phansi, Izinzuzo Zokuhlinzeka Ngempahla Zisele Kodwa Ukuqapha Kuyadingeka
Emabhizinisini athekelisa izindwangu zamaShayina, izinselelo ezilethwa yi-India-UK FTA zigxile kakhulu engxenyeni yomkhiqizo omaphakathi ukuya kwephansi. Njengamanje, izingubo esezilungisiwe ezisezingeni eliphakathi kuya kwephansi (njengokugqoka nje okungajwayelekile kanye nezindwangu zasekhaya eziyisisekelo) zenza cishe u-45% wezindwangu zaseShayina ezithunyelwa e-UK. Le mikhiqizo inezithiyo zobuchwepheshe eziphansi, ukuncintisana okuqinile kwe-homogeneous, futhi intengo iyisici esiyinhloko sokuncintisana. I-India, enezinzuzo ezindlekweni zabasebenzi (iholo elimaphakathi lanyanga zonke labasebenzi bendwangu baseNdiya licishe libe yi-1/3 yalelo eliseShayina) kanye nezinsiza zikakotini (i-India ingumkhiqizi kakotini omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni), okuhambisana nokwehliswa kwentengo, kungase kuhehe abathengisi base-UK ukuthi bashintshe ingxenye yama-oda abo aphakathi nendawo ukuya kwephansi aye e-India.
Ngokombono wamabhizinisi athile, amasu okuthengwa kwempahla ezitolo ezinkulu ze-UK chain (ezifana ne-Marks & Spencer, Primark, ne-ASDA) abonise izimpawu zokulungiswa. Ngokusho kwemithombo yezimboni, i-Primark isayine izivumelwano zokuhlinzeka ngempahla yesikhathi eside nezimboni zezingubo zaseNdiya ezi-3 futhi ihlela ukukhulisa isilinganiso sokuthengwa kwezimpahla ezijwayelekile ezimaphakathi kuya kwephansi ukusuka ku-10% ukuya ku-30%. UMarks & Spencer baphinde baveza ukuthi kuzonyusa umthamo wokuthengwa kwemikhiqizo yendwangu yasekhaya eyenziwe eNdiya ngesizini ka-2025-2026 yasekwindla nasebusika, ngesabelo esihlosiwe sokuqala esingu-15%.
Kodwa-ke, imboni yezindwangu yaseChina ayinakuzivikela. Ubuqotho bochungechunge lwezimboni kanye nezinzuzo zemikhiqizo enenani eliphezulu kusewukhiye wokumelana nokuncintisana. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iShayina inohlelo oluphelele lweketango lezimboni kusukela ku-chemical fiber, ukuphotha, ukuluka, ukuphrinta kanye nokudaya ezingutsheni esezilungile. Isivinini sokuphendula sochungechunge lwezimboni (nomjikelezo wokulethwa kwe-oda omaphakathi cishe wezinsuku ezingama-20) sishesha kakhulu kunaseNdiya (cishe izinsuku ezingama-35-40), okubalulekile kumabhrendi emfashini asheshayo adinga ukuphindwa ngokushesha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izinzuzo zokuqoqwa kobuchwepheshe kanye namandla okukhiqiza e-China emkhakheni wezindwangu ezisezingeni eliphezulu (njengezindwangu ezisebenzayo, imikhiqizo yefiber egaywe kabusha, nezindwangu ezihlakaniphile) kunzima nge-India ukudlula esikhathini esifushane. Isibonelo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwezindwangu ezigaywe kabusha ze-polyester nezindwangu zasekhaya ezilwa namagciwane ku-akhawunti yase-UK ngaphezu kuka-40% wemakethe yase-UK, ikakhulukazi eqondiswe kumakhasimende omkhiqizo aphakathi nendawo ukuya kwephezulu, futhi le ngxenye ayithinteki kangako emananini.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, “isakhiwo somhlaba wonke” samabhizinisi endwangu aseShayina nawo avikela ubungozi bemakethe eyodwa. Eminyakeni yakamuva, amabhizinisi amaningi endwangu yaseShayina asungule izisekelo zokukhiqiza eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nase-Afrika ukuze angene emakethe yaseYurophu ngokusebenzisa izintandokazi zendawo zentela. Isibonelo, ifekthri yase-Vietnam yase-Shenzhou International ingajabulela izintela eziziro nge-EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, kanye nokuthunyelwa kwayo kwezimpahla zemidlalo ku-akhawunti yase-UK ngama-22% emakethe yokungenisa impahla zemidlalo yase-UK. Le ngxenye yebhizinisi ayithintwanga ngokuqondile i-India-UK FTA.
Umthelela Owengeziwe Wezimboni: Ukwenziwa Kwesifunda Okusheshisiwe Kwe-Global Textile Supply Chain, Amabhizinisi Adinga Ukugxila “Emincintiswaneni Ehlukene”
Ukuqala kokusebenza kwe-India-UK FTA empeleni kuyi-microcosm yenkambiso yomhlaba wonke "yokwenza isifunda" kanye "nesivumelwano esisekelwe" sokuthuthukiswa kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwendwangu. Eminyakeni yakamuva, izivumelwano zokuhwebelana kwamahhala zamazwe amabili njenge-EU-Indonesia FTA, UK-India FTA, kanye ne-US-Vietnam FTA ziphothulwe ngokuqinile. Enye yezindlela ezinengqondo ukwakha “amaketango okunikezwayo eduze nogu” noma “amaketanga okunikezela nge-ally” ngokusebenzisa izintandokazi zentela, futhi lo mkhuba ubumba kabusha imithetho yohwebo lwendwangu yomhlaba wonke.
Emabhizinisini endwangu emhlabeni wonke, amasu okuphendula adinga ukugxila "ekuhlukaniseni":
Amabhizinisi ase-Indian: Esikhathini esifushane, adinga ukubhekana nezinkinga ezifana nomthamo onganele wokukhiqiza nokuzinza kwe-supply chain (isb, ukushintshashintsha kwentengo kakotini, ukushoda kukagesi) ukuze kugwenywe ukubambezeleka kokulethwa okubangelwa ukukhuphuka kwama-oda. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, badinga ukukhulisa ingxenye yemikhiqizo enenani eliphezulu futhi bahlukane nokuncika emakethe esezingeni eliphakathi ukuya kwephansi.
Amabhizinisi aseShayina: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, angahlanganisa isabelo sawo emakethe esezingeni eliphezulu ngokuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe (isb., ukuthuthukisa izindwangu ezihambisana nemvelo kanye nemicu esebenzayo). Ngakolunye uhlangothi, bangaqinisa ukubambisana okujulile nemikhiqizo yase-UK (isb, ukuhlinzeka ngedizayini engokwezifiso kanye nezinsizakalo zochungechunge lokuphendula ngokushesha) ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukunamathela kwamakhasimende. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, bangasebenzisa isinyathelo "Ibhande Nomgwaqo" ukuze bagweme izithiyo zentela ngokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngezwe lesithathu noma ukukhiqizwa phesheya kwezilwandle.
Abathengisi base-UK: Badinga ukulinganisa phakathi kwezindleko nokuzinza kwe-supply chain. Nakuba imikhiqizo yaseNdiya inezinzuzo ezivelele zamanani, ibhekene nezingozi eziphezulu ze-supply chain. Imikhiqizo yamaShayina, nakuba iphezulu kancane ngentengo, inikeza ikhwalithi eqinisekisiwe kakhudlwana nokuzinza kokulethwa. Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yase-UK izokwethula iphethini yokunikezela okukabili "ye-high-end evela e-China + maphakathi ne-low-end evela eNdiya" esikhathini esizayo.
Ngokuvamile, umthelela we-India-UK FTA embonini yendwangu "awuphazamisi" kodwa kunalokho ukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kokuncintisana kwezimakethe kusukela "ezimpini zamanani" kuya "kwezimpi zokubaluleka". Kumabhizinisi aseShayina athekelisa izindwangu, kumele aqaphele ukulahlekelwa yisabelo semakethe esisezingeni eliphakathi kuya esiphansi esikhathini esifushane, futhi esikhathini eside, akhe izinzuzo ezintsha ezincintisanayo ngaphansi kwemithetho emisha yohwebo ngokusebenzisa ukuthuthukiswa kochungechunge lwezimboni kanye nokuhlelwa komhlaba.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-22-2025