Kungekudala, urhulumente wase-US uye waqhubeka nokunyusa umgaqo-nkqubo "wokubuyisela irhafu", ngokusemthethweni kuquka iBangladesh kunye neSri Lanka kuluhlu lwezohlwayo kunye nokubeka iirhafu eziphezulu ze-37% kunye ne-44% ngokulandelanayo. Eli nyathelo alijonganga kuphela “igalelo ekujoliswe kulo” kwiinkqubo zoqoqosho zala mazwe mabini, axhomekeke kakhulu kuthunyelo lwamalaphu kumazwe angaphandle, kodwa luphinde lwabangela ukusabela kwetsheyini kuthungelwano lwehlabathi lokubonelela ngamalaphu. Ishishini lempahla yasekhaya lase-US nalo libanjwe kuxinzelelo oluntlu-mbini lokunyuka kweendleko kunye nesiphithiphithi sobonelelo.
I. I-Bangladesh: Ukuthunyelwa kweMilaphu kumazwe angaphandle Kuphulukana ne-3.3 yeBhiliyoni yezigidi zeedola, izigidi zeMisebenzi esemngciphekweni
Njengelizwe lesibini ngobukhulu kumazwe angaphandle kwempahla, ishishini lempahla yamalaphu nelempahla “liyeyona ndlela yoqoqosho” yaseBangladesh. Eli shishini ligalela i-11% ye-GDP iyonke yelizwe, i-84% yomthamo wayo uwonke wokuthumela ngaphandle, kwaye iqhuba ngokuthe ngqo ukuqeshwa kwabantu abangaphezulu kwezigidi ezi-4 (ama-80% kubo ngabasebenzi basetyhini). Ikwaxhasa ngokungangqalanga impilo yabantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezili-15 kumatyathanga emizi-mveliso angasentla nasezantsi. I-United States yi-Bangladesh yesibini ngobukhulu kwimakethi yokuthumela ngaphandle emva kweManyano yaseYurophu. Ngo-2023, iimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-Bangladesh kunye nempahla ezithunyelwa e-US zafikelela kwi-6.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, zibalelwa ngaphezulu kwe-95% yokuthunyelwa kwayo e-US iyonke, igubungela iimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokukhawuleza eziphakathi ukuya kwesezantsi njengeeT-shirts, ijean, kunye neehempe, kwaye isebenza njengomthombo wobonelelo oluphambili kubathengisi base-US kunye noJoliso lweWalmart.
Ukumiselwa kwe-US ye-37% yerhafu kwiimveliso ze-Bangladeshi ngeli xesha kuthetha ukuba i-t-shirt yekotoni evela e-Bangladesh, eyayinexabiso le-$ 10 kunye nexabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-15 yeedola, kuya kufuneka ihlawule i-$ 5.55 eyongezelelweyo kwiirhafu emva kokungena kwimarike yase-US, ukutyhala ixabiso elipheleleyo ukuya kwi-$ 20.55 ngokuthe ngqo. Kushishino lwempahla olulukiweyo lwase-Bangladesh, oluxhomekeke “kwixabiso eliphantsi kunye nemida yengeniso ecekethekileyo” njengenzuzo yalo engundoqo yokhuphiswano, olu luhlu lweerhafu lugqithise kakhulu kumyinge wengeniso ye-avareji ye-5% -8%. Ngokoqikelelo yi-Bangladesh iGarment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), emva kokuba iintlawulo ziqala ukusebenza, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla yelizwe e-US kuya kuhla ukusuka kwi-6.4 yezigidigidi zeedola ngonyaka ukuya malunga ne-3.1 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, kunye nelahleko yonyaka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-3.3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi-elingana nokuhlutha ishishini leengubo zelizwe kwi-US phantse isiqingatha.
Okubaluleke ngakumbi, ukwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kubangele igagasi lokudendwa kushishino. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iifektri ezilukiweyo ezingama-27 ezincinci naphakathi e-Bangladesh ziyekile ukuvelisa ngenxa yee-odolo ezilahlekileyo, okubangele ukungaqeshwa kwabasebenzi abamalunga ne-18,000. I-BGMEA ilumkise ukuba ukuba amaxabiso ahlala ekhona ngaphezulu kweenyanga ezintandathu, iifektri ezingaphezu kwama-50 kwilizwe lonke ziya kuvala, kwaye inani labantu abangaphangeliyo lingadlula i-100,000, lichaphazele ngakumbi uzinzo loluntu kunye nokhuseleko lokuziphilisa kwabantu elizweni. Ngaxeshanye, ishishini lamalaphu lase-Bangladesh lixhomekeke kakhulu kumqhaphu othengwa kumazwe angaphandle (malunga ne-90% yomqhaphu kufuneka ithengwe e-US nase-Indiya). Ukwehla kabukhali kwemivuzo yamazwe angaphandle kuya kukhokelela ekunqongophaleni koovimba botshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, okuchaphazela amandla elizwe okungenisa imathiriyeli ekrwada efana nomqhaphu nokudala umjikelo ombi “wokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle → ukunqongophala kwemathiriyeli ekrwada → ukucutheka kwamandla”.
II. I-Sri Lanka: i-44% yoLwahlulo lweRhafu yeNdleko ePhantsi, iShishini leNtsika kuMda we "Chain Breakage"
Xa kuthelekiswa neBangladesh, ishishini lamalaphu laseSri Lanka lincinci ngokwemilinganiselo kodwa ngokulinganayo “lilitye lembombo” kuqoqosho lwelizwe. Ushishino olulukiweyo kunye neengubo lunegalelo kwi-5% ye-GDP yelizwe kunye ne-45% yevolumu yayo yonke yokuthumela ngaphandle, kunye nabasebenzi abangaphezu kwama-300,000 abathe ngqo, okwenza kube yimboni engundoqo yokubuyisela uqoqosho lwaseSri Lanka emva kwemfazwe. Ukuthunyelwa kwayo e-US kulawulwa ngamalaphu aphakathi ukuya phezulu kunye neempahla ezisebenzayo (ezifana nezemidlalo kunye nempahla yangaphantsi). Ngo-2023, ukuthengiswa kwempahla yaseSri Lanka ukuya e-US kwafikelela kwi-1.8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kubalelwa kwi-7% yemarike yokungenisa yase-US yamalaphu aphakathi ukuya phezulu.
Ukunyuka kwe-US kwizinga lerhafu ye-Sri Lanka ukuya kuma-44% ngeli xesha kuyenza ibe lelinye lamazwe anezinga eliphezulu lerhafu kulo mjikelo "weentlawulo ezifanayo". Ngokohlalutyo olwenziwa yiSri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA), esi santya sentlawulo siza kutyhala ngokuthe ngqo iindleko zokuthumela impahla ngaphandle kweli lizwe malunga ne-30%. Ukuthatha eyona mveliso iphambili yaseSri Lanka yokuthumela ngaphandle—“ilaphu le-organic cotton sportswear”—ngokomzekelo, ixabiso lokuqala lokuthumela ngaphandle ngemitha nganye yayiyi-$8. Emva kokunyuswa kweentlawulo, iindleko zenyuka zaya kwi-11.52 yeedola, ngelixa iindleko zeemveliso ezifanayo ezithunyelwa eIndiya naseVietnam ziphela kwi-9- $ 10 kuphela. Ukukhuphisana kwexabiso leemveliso zaseSri Lankan sele iphantse yachithwa ngokupheleleyo.
Okwangoku, inani lamashishini athumela ngaphandle eSri Lanka afumene "izaziso zokunqunyanyiswa kweodolo" kubathengi baseMelika. Umzekelo, i-Brandix Group, umthengisi omkhulu wempahla yaseSri Lanka, ekuqaleni wavelisa iimpahla zangaphantsi ezisebenzayo kwi-brand yezemidlalo yase-US Under Armor kunye ne-odolo yenyanga ye-500,000 yamaqhekeza. Ngoku, ngenxa yeendleko zeendleko, i-Under Armor idlulisele i-30% yee-odolo zayo kwiifektri zaseVietnam. Elinye ishishini, u-Hirdaramani, lathi ukuba amaxabiso anyuswa, ishishini lawo lokuthumela ngaphandle e-US liya kulahlekelwa yilahleko phakathi kweenyanga ezintathu, kwaye kunokunyanzeliswa ukuba livale iifektri ezimbini eziseColombo, ezichaphazela imisebenzi engama-8,000. Ukongeza, imboni yempahla yaseSri Lanka ixhomekeke kwimodeli "yokwenziwa ngemathiriyeli evela kumazwe angaphandle" (impahla ekrwada engenisiweyo ithatha i-70% yetotali). Ukuthintelwa kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kuya kukhokelela kukusilela koluhlu lwempahla ekrwada, kuthathelwe imali eyinkunzi esebenzayo yamashishini kwaye kwenze mandundu ubunzima bawo bokusebenza.
III. Icandelo lezasekhaya lase-US: Isiphithiphithi soBonelelo + neeNdleko eziNyusayo, ishishini libanjwe “kwiNgxaki”
Umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu karhulumente wase-US, obonakala ujolise “kubantu abakhuphisana nabo baphesheya kweelwandle”, uye wabangela “ukubuyisela umva” ngokuchasene neshishini lempahla yangaphakathi nelempahla. Njengomrhwebi omkhulu wehlabathi wempahla kunye nempahla (enomthamo wokungenisa we-120 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2023), i-US impahla yempahla kunye nempahla yempahla ibonisa ipateni "yemveliso yasekhaya ephezulu kunye nokuxhomekeka kokungenisa ngaphandle" -amashishini asekhaya avelisa izinto eziluhlaza ezifana nomqhaphu kunye nemicu yemichiza, ngelixa i-90% yeemveliso zempahla ezigqityiweyo zixhomekeke ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe. I-Bangladesh kunye ne-Sri Lanka yimithombo ebalulekileyo yempahla ephakathi ukuya kwi-low-end kunye ne-middle-to-high-end-end e-US.
Ukunyuswa kwamaxabiso kuye kwanyusa iindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla kumashishini asekhaya ase-US. Uphando olwenziwa yi-American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) lubonisa ukuba umyinge wengeniso yomyinge wababoneleli bempahla yase-US bempahla kunye nempahla yi-3% -5% kuphela okwangoku. Umyinge wama-37% ukuya kuma-44% oluhlu lweerhafu uthetha ukuba amashishini “afunxa iindleko ngokwawo” (okukhokelela kwilahleko) okanye “azigqithisele ukuphelisa amaxabiso”. Ukuthatha u-JC Penney, umthengisi wasekhaya wase-US, njengomzekelo, ixabiso lokuqala lokuthengisa i-jeans ethengiweyo e-Bangladesh yayiyi-$ 49.9. Emva kokunyuswa kwerhafu, ukuba ingeniso yenzuzo iya kugcinwa, ixabiso lokuthengisa kufuneka linyuke ukuya kwi-68,9 yeedola, ukunyuka malunga ne-40%. Ukuba ixabiso alinyuswanga, inzuzo nganye yeebhulukhwe iya kuhla ukusuka kwi-3 ukuya kwi-$ 0.5, ishiya phantse akukho nzuzo.
Kwangaxeshanye, ukungaqiniseki kwekhonkco lokubonelela kubeke amashishini “kwingxaki yokwenza izigqibo”. U-Julia Hughes, uMongameli we-AAFA, wachaza kwinkomfa yakutshanje yoshishino ukuba amashishini ase-US ekuqaleni acebe ukunciphisa ingozi "ngokwahlula iindawo zokuthenga" (ezifana nokudlulisa imiyalelo ethile esuka eChina ukuya eBangladesh naseSri Lanka). Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka ngesiquphe komgaqo-nkqubo weentlawulo kuphazamise zonke izicwangciso: "Amashishini awazi ukuba leliphi ilizwe eliya kuba lilandelayo ekuhlaselweni kwerhafu, kwaye akazi ukuba irhafu iya kuhlala ixesha elingakanani. Abanabuganga bokusayina izivumelwano zexesha elide nababoneleli abatsha, singasathethi ke ngokutyala imali ekwakheni amajelo amatsha obonelelo." Okwangoku, i-35% yabathumeli bempahla yase-US baxele ukuba "bayakumisa ukusayinwa kwee-odolo ezintsha", kwaye i-28% yamashishini sele eqalisile ukuphonononga kwakhona ikhonkco lawo lokubonelela, ecinga ngokuthumela ii-odolo kumazwe aseMexico nakuMbindi Merika angahlawulwanga ngamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, umthamo wemveliso kule mimandla ulinganiselwe (ukwazi ukwenza kuphela i-15% yempahla yempahla yase-US), okwenza kube nzima ukuzalisa i-gap yemarike eshiywe yi-Bangladesh kunye ne-Sri Lanka kwixesha elifutshane.
Ukongeza, abathengi base-US ekugqibeleni baya "kunyathela ityala". Idatha evela kwi-Bureau of Labor Statistics yase-US ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngo-2024, i-US Consumer Price Index (CPI) yempahla inyuke nge-3.2% ngonyaka. Ukunyuka okuqhubekayo komgaqo-nkqubo weentlawulo kunokukhokelela ekwenyukeni okungaphezulu nge-5% -7% kumaxabiso empahla ekupheleni konyaka, nto leyo eqhubela phambili uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Kumaqela anengeniso ephantsi, inkcitho yempahla ithatha umlinganiselo ophezulu wengeniso enokulahlwa (malunga ne-8%), kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kuchaphazela ngqo umthamo wabo wokusebenzisa, ngaloo ndlela kuthotywa imfuno yentengiso yempahla yangaphakathi yase-US.
IV. Ukwakhiwa ngokutsha kweTyathanga lokuBonelelwa kweMilaphu yeHlabathi: Isiphithiphithi seXesha elifutshane kunye noLungiso lweXesha elide
Ukunyuswa kwamaxabiso e-US e-Bangladesh naseSri Lanka ngokuyimfuneko yi-microcosm ye-"geopoliticization" yetsheyini yokubonelela ngempahla yamalaphu yehlabathi. Ngexesha elifutshane, lo mgaqo-nkqubo ukhokelele "kwindawo yokucima" kwi-global mid-to-low-end-down-yempahla yokubonelela ngempahla-ilahleko ye-oda e-Bangladesh naseSri Lanka ayinakuthatyathwa ngokupheleleyo ngamanye amazwe kwixesha elifutshane, elinokuthi liqalise "ukunqongophala kwempahla" kwabanye abathengisi base-US. Kwangaxeshanye, ukuhla kwemizi-mveliso yelaphu kula mazwe mabini kuya kuchaphazela imfuno yezinto eziluhlaza ezifana nomqhaphu kunye nemicu yeekhemikhali, ebangela impembelelo engathanga ngqo kumazwe athumela ngaphandle umqhaphu afana ne-US ne-Indiya.
Ngexesha elide, ikhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla yelizwe jikelele linokukhawulezisa ulungelelwaniso lwayo oluya “kukusondela” kunye “nolwahlulo”: Amashishini ase-US anokuthi adlulisele iiodolo eMexico naseCanada (ezonwabela iirhafu ezikhethwayo phantsi kweSivumelwano soRhwebo ngokuKhululeka kuMntla waseMelika), amashishini aseYurophu anokonyusa ukuthengwa kwempahla evela eTurkey naseMorocco, ngelixa amashishini amalaphu aseTshayina ukuya kurhwebo olupheleleyo lwenkqubo yorhwebo, exhomekeke kwiinkqubo zabo zokurhweba. ukuveliswa kwemveliso), inokuthatha ezinye ii-odolo eziphakathi ukuya phezulu (ezifana namalaphu asebenzayo kunye nempahla eco-friendly) edluliselwe eBangladesh naseSri Lanka. Nangona kunjalo, le nkqubo yohlengahlengiso iya kuthatha ixesha (i-1-2 iminyaka eqikelelwayo) kwaye iya kuhamba kunye neendleko ezongeziweyo zokwakhiwa kwakhona kwe-supply chain, okwenza kube nzima ukuphelisa ngokupheleleyo ukuxhatshazwa kwamashishini akhoyo kwixesha elifutshane.
Kumashishini orhwebo olulaphu lwaseTshayina lwangaphandle, lo mjikelo wokuphazamiseka kwerhafu uzisa yomibini imingeni (efuna ukumelana nemfuno ebuthathaka yehlabathi kunye nokhuphiswano lwekhonkco lokubonelela) kunye namathuba afihliweyo. Banokomeleza intsebenziswano kunye neefektri zendawo e-Bangladesh naseSri Lanka (ezifana nokubonelela ngenkxaso yobugcisa kunye nemveliso edibeneyo) ukuphepha imiqobo yerhafu yase-US. Kwangaxeshanye, banokwandisa iinzame zokuphonononga iimarike ezikhulayo ezifana ne-Southeast Asia ne-Afrika, ukunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwimarike enye eYurophu nase-US, ngaloo ndlela befumana indawo encomekayo ngakumbi ekwakhiweni ngokutsha kwekhonkco lonikezelo lwehlabathi.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-16-2025