Kutshanje, imarike yorhwebo yomqhaphu yamazwe ngamazwe ibone utshintsho olubalulekileyo lwesakhiwo. Ngokwedatha egunyazisiweyo yokubeka iliso evela eChina Cotton Net, ukubhukisha i-US Pima cotton ngeshedyuli ka-Agasti ka-2025 yokuthumela ngenqanawa ibisoloko ikhula, ibe yenye yengqwalasela ephambili kwicandelo langoku lokurhweba ngelaphu elikrwada. Ngokweenkcukacha ezithile zentengiselwano, ukubhukishwa kwangoku ikakhulu kwe-US Pima cotton ye-11-2 kunye ne-21-2 yamabanga. La mabanga mabini ekotoni yePima, ephawulwa ngobude befayibha ende (idla ngokuba yi-35-45 mm), ukomelela okuphezulu, ukucoleka okufanayo, ukusebenza kakuhle kokudaya, kunye nelaphu elikhazimlayo, zizixhobo ezisisiseko zelaphu lelaphu elilukiweyo elinomgangatho ophezulu (njengamalaphu ehempe anoxinzelelo oluphezulu kunye noxinaniso oluphezulu, amalaphu ehempe odidi oluphezulu, kunye nempahla yezemidlalo ephezulu). Iindlela zabo zentengiso zibonisa ngokuthe ngqo utshintsho lwemfuno kwitsheyini leshishini lelaphu lehlabathi eliphezulu.
Ukukhula kokubhukishwa kwe-US Pima cotton kuqhutywa kukudityaniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo emininzi kunye nezinto ezifunwa yimarike, ezinokuhlahlelwa kumacala amathathu:
I. Ukwandiswa koMrhumo we-China-US: ukuNcitshiswa kweeNdleko zoRhwebo kunye nokuVulelwa kweMbango yokuThengwa kweMpahla
Ngaphambili, ukungaqiniseki bekukho kwimigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu kwimathiriyeli ekrwada yelaphu kunye neemveliso phakathi kweTshayina ne-United States. Ngenxa yokuxhalaba malunga nokunyuka kweendleko zamaxabiso, amanye amashishini eengubo zomqhaphu aseTshayina amkele isicwangciso-qhinga “somyalelo omncinci, omfutshane” wokuthenga umqhaphu wePima yase-US, ngentelekiso enamandla yokulinda nokubona. Ulwandiso lwamva nje lweentsuku ezingama-90 lwe-China-US i-tariff moratorium luthetha ukuba ngeli xesha, amashishini aseTshayina angaqhubeka enandipha ukhetho lwamaxabiso okuqala xa engenisa i-US Pima cotton, ngaphandle kokuthwala iindleko ezongezelelweyo zerhafu, ukunciphisa ngokuthe ngqo imingcipheko yezemali yokuthengwa kwempahla ekrwada.
Ukususela kumbono we-industrial chain transmission logic, ukongezwa kwe-tariff moratorium kunika amashishini ngefestile ecacileyo yokuthengwa kwempahla: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amashishini e-cotton textile angakwazi ukuvalela i-Pima i-cotton orders kwishedyuli yokuthunyelwa kwe-Agasti yokugcina izinto eziphakamileyo eziphezulu kwangaphambili, ukuphepha ukunyuka kweendleko ezinokuthi zibangelwa utshintsho olulandelayo kwimigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu. Kwelinye icala, amashishini arhweba nawo andise iinzame zawo zokubhukisha, ukugcina iimpahla ngokuthenga okuninzi ukuze kubonelelwe ngobonelelo lwemathiriyeli ekrwada ezinzileyo kwimizila yelaphu esezantsi kunye neempawu zempahla. Oku kubumba amandla aqhuba ukuthengwa kwezinto ezimbini “koosomashishini abaqhuba ngokuqhubekayo + abarhwebi abagcina iimpahla ngokukhutheleyo,” ekhuthaza ngokuthe ngqo ukunyuka kokubhukishwa kweshedyuli ka-Agasti yokuthunyelwa kwempahla.
II. Ukubekwa okuGxininiswayo kweMiyalelo yeKrisimesi yaseYurophu naseMelika: Ukuvuselela iMfuneko yamalaphu akwiSiphelo esiPhakamileyo kunye nokuQhuba iMpahla ekrwada.
U-Agasti ukuya ku-Okthobha unyaka ngamnye lixesha eliphakamileyo lokubeka iiodolo zeKrisimesi kwiimarike zaseYurophu naseMelika. Ebudeni balo mjikelo, iimpawu zempahla yaseYurophu naseMelika kunye nabathengisi kufuneka bagqibezele ukuthenga, ukuveliswa, kunye nokuthuthwa kweemveliso zexesha leKrisimesi (ezifana neengubo ezinithiweyo eziphezulu, iilokhwe zeeholide, kunye nempahla yasekhaya yesipho), okukhokelela ekunyanzeni kwexesha lonyaka kwimfuno yezinto ezilaphuweyo eziphezulu.
Ngokukodwa, abathengi baseYurophu nabaseMelika banemfuno ephezulu kakhulu yomgangatho wempahla yexesha leKrisimesi xa kuthelekiswa neemveliso zemihla ngemihla. Ngokukodwa kwi-market-to-high-end-market, imfuno yeendwangu ezenziwe kwi-Pima cotton yomelele. Umzekelo, uhlobo lwempahla yodidi lwaseYurophu lufuna ngokucacileyo ukuba amalaphu eehempe zeKrisimesi ezilinganiselweyo zilukwe nge-US Pima cotton ukomeleza ukuthungwa kweemveliso. Iimveliso zomqhaphu ezikumgangatho ophezulu e-United States nazo zonyusa ukuthengwa kwazo kwePima zokwalaswa komqhaphu ngeli xesha ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zokusetyenziswa kweeholide. Ukubekwa kwee-odolo ezinjalo kuqhuba ngokuthe ngqo imfuno yokuthengwa kweempahla zelaphu ezisezantsi zomsonto we-cotton we-high-end, kunye ne-US Pima cotton cotton, njengeyona nto ingundoqo kwi-high-end ye-cotton yarn, ngokwemvelo iba yinto yokuqala yokukhetha kumashishini, ngaloo ndlela ikhuthaza ukwanda okubalulekileyo kokubhukishela ishedyuli yokuthunyelwa kwe-Agasti (ishedyuli yokuthunyelwa ihambelana nomjikelo wemveliso ye-odolo: ngo-Agasti, ukusonta, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukudaya, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukudaya, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukujikeleza, ukudaya, ukudaya, ukudaya, ukusonta ngo-Agasti. Oktobha, kunye neemveliso zempahla ezigqityiweyo zingahanjiswa ngaphambi kukaNovemba ukuqinisekisa ukuba ziseshelufini ngaphambi kweKrisimesi).
III. Ukunyuka okulindelweyo “kokuThunyelelwa kwamanye amazwe ngokungxamisekileyo” kuShishino lweMqhaphu yaseTshayina: uLwayitho lwaPhambili lokuThatha iSabelo seMarike.
Ngokusekwe kwiintsingiselo zangoku zemarike, ishishini ngokubanzi lilindele ukuba ushishino lwempahla yomqhaphu lwaseTshayina lungenise umjikelo omtsha “wokuthunyelelwa ngaphandle ngokukhawuleza” oluqhutywa zezi zinto zininzi zilungileyo. Ukusuka kwidatha yembali, ngenxa yomgaqo-nkqubo ofanayo kunye nokugqithiswa kwemfuno ngexesha elifanayo le-2024, ixabiso lokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-China ephezulu ye-textile kunye neemveliso zempahla zempahla zonyuka nge-12% ngonyaka, kunye nomlinganiselo wokuthumela ngaphandle kwamalaphu e-US Pima cotton enyuka ukuya kwi-18%. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2025, ukuthengiswa kwempahla yaseTshayina kunye nempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle sele ifikelele kwi-0.8% yokukhula konyaka nonyaka, ebonisa ukomelela okubonakalayo kwamanye amazwe kunye nokubeka isiseko “sokuthunyelelwa ngaphandle ngokukhawuleza” kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokunyuka kokulindela "ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ngokukhawuleza", amashishini e-cotton e-cotton aseTshayina athathe isicwangciso esisebenzayo ngakumbi: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amashishini aqinisekisa inkqubela phambili yokuvelisa amalaphu aphezulu ngokuvalela kwii-odolo ze-cotton zase-US Pima kwishedyuli yokuthunyelwa kwe-Agasti kwangaphambili, ukuphepha ukulibaziseka ekuhanjisweni kwe-oda ngenxa yokunqongophala kwezinto ezibonakalayo. Ngokukodwa, abathengi baseYurophu naseMelika baneemfuno ezingqongqo kwiishedyuli zokuhanjiswa kweodolo; ukulibaziseka okubangelwa kukungabikho kwemathiriyeli ekrwada kunokukhokelela kumonakalo obhangisiweyo okanye ukucinywa kweodolo. Kwelinye icala, amanye amashishini nawo andise umthamo wawo wokuthengwa komqhaphu wePima ukwandisa amandla okuvelisa amalaphu akumgangatho ophezulu, ukuze athathe iiodolo ezininzi zeKrisimesi yaseYurophu neMelika kwaye athabathe isabelo semarike. Umzekelo, ilitye lokusila e-Zhejiang lisandula ukunyusa umthamo walo wokuthengwa kwe-Pima yase-US nge-30%, ngokukodwa ukuvelisa amalaphu ehempe enesiphelo esiphezulu athunyelwa eYurophu, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba yongeze i-2 yezigidi zeeyadi zee-odolo zokuthumela ngaphandle ilaphu.
Ukukhangela phambili kwindlela yemarike elandelayo, imfuno ye-US Pima ikotton iya kuhlala iphezulu kwixesha elifutshane (ngo-Agasti ukuya ku-Oktobha): Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imfuno yokuthengwa kwempahla ngexesha lokumiswa kwentlawulo iya kuqhubeka nokukhutshwa, kwaye ukubhukishwa kweshedyuli yokuthunyelwa kweSeptemba kunokwandisa ngakumbi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umjikelezo wemveliso yee-oda zeKrisimesi zaseYurophu naseMelika ziya kuqhubeka kude kube ngu-Oktobha, ngoko ke imfuno yokuthengwa kwe-Pima yekotoni ayiyi kuncipha ngokukhawuleza. Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba kukho utshintsho olulandelayo kwimigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu yase-China-US okanye ukuba imfuno yokusetyenziswa kweKrisimesi yaseYurophu naseMelika ingaphantsi kokulindela, ingaba nefuthe elithile kwimfuno yemarike ye-US Pima cotton. Amashishini amalaphu e-cotton aseTshayina asafuna ukubeka esweni ngokusondeleyo umgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokutshintsha kwemarike, ukulawula ngokufanelekileyo uluhlu lwempahla ekrwada, kunye nokulinganisa iindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla kunye nemingcipheko yemarike.
Ukongeza, ukukhula kokubhukisha kwikotoni ye-Pima yase-US ikwabonakalisa intsingiselo ebalulekileyo kwikhonkco leshishini lelaphu lehlabathi: ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokuphuculwa kokusetyenziswa, imfuno yokuqina kwezinto ezilukiweyo ezikumgangatho ophezulu ziphezulu kakhulu kunezo ziphakathi ukuya kwi-low-end. Ukuba amashishini amalaphu e-cotton aseTshayina anokuqhubeka nokwandisa ukuthengwa kwawo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zemathiriyeli ekrwada ephezulu, aya kuba luncedo ngakumbi ekwandiseni ukukhuphisana kwawo kwimakethi yelaphu ekumgangatho ophezulu yehlabathi kwaye abeke isiseko sokwandisa ngakumbi iimarike zokuphela okuphezulu ezifana neYurophu, iMelika, iJapan, kunye noMzantsi Korea kwixesha elizayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-25-2025