Ukuphazamiseka kongquzulwano lwe-geopolitical kwikhonkco lonikezelo lorhwebo lwamalaphu kufana nokubeka "into ethintelayo" kwimithambo yegazi egudileyo yokuqala yorhwebo lwehlabathi, kwaye impembelelo yayo ingena kwimilinganiselo emininzi efana nothutho, indleko, ixesha, kunye nemisebenzi yenkampani.
1. “Ukwaphuka nokuphambuka” kweendlela zothutho: Ukujongwa kwindlela ezisabela ngayo kwiindlela ezisuka kwintlekele yoLwandle oluBomvu.
Urhwebo lwamalaphu luxhomekeke kakhulu kuthutho lwaselwandle, ngakumbi iindlela eziphambili ezidibanisa iAsia, iYurophu neAfrika. Sithathela ingqalelo ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu njengomzekelo, “njengomqala” weenqanawa zehlabathi, uLwandle oluBomvu kunye neSuez Canal zithwele malunga ne-12% yomthamo wezothutho lwezorhwebo lwehlabathi, kwaye zikwangawona majelo angundoqo okuthunyelwa kwelaphu laseAsia ukuya eYurophu naseAfrika. Imeko enxunguphalisayo kuLwandle oluBomvu ebangelwa kukwanda kongquzulwano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine kunye nokuqiniswa kongquzulwano phakathi kweLebhanon ne-Israel kuye kwakhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekunyukeni komngcipheko wokuhlaselwa kweenqanawa zabarhwebi. Ukusukela ngo-2024, ngaphezulu kweenqanawa ze-30 zabarhwebi kuLwandle oluBomvu ziye zahlaselwa yi-drones okanye imijukujelwa. Ukuze kuthintelwe iingozi, iingxilimbela ezininzi zeenqanawa zamazwe ngamazwe (ezifana neMaersk neMeditera Shipping) ziye zabhengeza ukumiswa kwendlela yoLwandle Olubomvu zaza zakhetha ukujikela kwiCape of Good Hope eAfrika.
Impembelelo yolu “jiko” kurhwebo lwamalaphu lukhawulezileyo: uhambo lokuqala olusuka eTshayina iYangtze River Delta kunye nePearl River Delta kumazibuko ukuya kwiPort yaseYurophu yaseRotterdam ngeSuez Canal kuthathe malunga neentsuku ezingama-30, kodwa emva kokujikela kwiKapa leThemba eliLungileyo, uhambo lwandiswe ukuya kwiintsuku ezingama-45-50, okonyusa ixesha lothutho phantse ngama-50%. Amalaphu anexesha eliqinileyo (elifana nomqhaphu okhanyayo kunye nelinen ehlotyeni kunye namalaphu ajikiweyo afudumeleyo ebusika), ukulibaziseka kwexesha kunokuphoswa ngokuthe ngqo kwixesha eliphakamileyo lokuthengisa - umzekelo, iimpawu zempahla yaseYurophu ekuqaleni zicwangcise ukufumana amalaphu aseAsia kwaye ziqalise imveliso ngoDisemba 2024 ekulungiseleleni iimveliso ezintsha entwasahlobo ka-2025. izaphulelo.
2. Ukunyuka kweendleko: uxinzelelo lwetsheyini ukusuka kwimpahla ukuya kwi-inventri
Isiphumo esithe ngqo sohlengahlengiso lwendlela kukunyuka kweendleko zothutho. NgoDisemba ka-2024, izinga lokuthuthwa kwempahla ye-40-foot-container ukusuka e-China ukuya eYurophu yenyuka ukusuka malunga ne-1,500 yeedola ngaphambi kwentlekele yoLwandle oluBomvu ukuya ngaphezu kwe-4,500 yeedola, ukunyuka kwe-200%; kwangaxeshanye, ukunyuka komgama wokuhamba ngenqanawa obangelwe kukujika kukhokelele ekwehleni kokuthengiswa kweenqanawa, kwaye ukunqongophala komthamo wehlabathi kunyuse ngakumbi amaxabiso omthwalo. Kurhwebo lwamalaphu, olunomlinganiselo ophantsi wengeniso (umyinge wenzuzo ephakathi malunga ne-5% -8%), ukunyuka kweendleko zempahla kucinezele ngokuthe ngqo umda wenzuzo - inkampani yokuthumela ngaphandle ilaphu eShaoxing, eZhejiang, ibala ukuba iindleko zomthwalo webhetshi yamalaphu ekotoni athunyelwa eJamani ngoJanuwari 2025, xa kuthelekiswa ne-20020 2025, xa kuthelekiswa ne-2020 2020 . ilingana ne-60% yenzuzo yomyalelo.
Ukongeza kuthutho oluthe ngqo, iindleko ezingathanga ngqo nazo zenyuka ngaxeshanye. Ukuze uhlangabezane nokulibaziseka kwezothutho, iinkampani zamalaphu kufuneka zilungiselele kwangaphambili, okukhokelela kuluhlu lwezinto ezingekenzeki: kwikota yesine ka-2024, iintsuku ze-inventory yokuthengiswa kwamalaphu kumaqela amakhulu e-textile e-China ziya kwandiswa ukusuka kwiintsuku ezingama-35 ukuya kwiintsuku ezingama-52, kunye neendleko ze-inventory (ezifana neentlawulo zokugcina kunye nenzala kwi-capital occupation) iya kunyuka malunga ne-1%. Ukongezelela, ezinye iilaphu (ezifana ne-silk ephezulu kunye neendwangu zokwelula) zineemfuno ezingqongqo kwindawo yokugcina. Uluhlu lwempahla yexesha elide lunokubangela ukuguquguquka kwelaphu kunye nokuncipha kwe-elasticity, ukonyusa ngakumbi umngcipheko welahleko.
3. Umngcipheko wokuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lonikezelo: "impembelelo yebhabhathane" ukusuka kwimathiriyeli ekrwada ukuya kwimveliso
Ungquzulwano lwemo yezopolitiko lusenokuthi lubangele ukuphazamiseka kwetsheyini phezulu nasezantsi komjelo wekhonkco loshishino lwamalaphu. Ngokomzekelo, iYurophu isisiseko esibalulekileyo sokuvelisa i-chemical fiber ekrwada (efana ne-polyester kunye ne-nylon). Ingxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine ibangele ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso amandla aseYurophu, kwaye ezinye izityalo zemichiza ziye zanciphisa okanye zayeka imveliso. Ngo-2024, imveliso ye-polyester staple fibers eYurophu iya kuhla nge-12% unyaka nonyaka, inyusa ixabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo ze-chemical fiber ekrwada, nto leyo echaphazela iindleko zeenkampani zokuvelisa ilaphu ezixhomekeke kule mathiriyeli ekrwada.
Kwangaxeshanye, iimpawu "zentsebenziswano ezininzi" zorhwebo lwamalaphu zenza kube nzima kakhulu kuzinzo lwekhonkco lokubonelela. Iqhekeza lelaphu lomqhaphu elishicilelweyo elithunyelwa eUnited States linokufuneka lingeniswe ngaphandle kwelaphu lomqhaphu lisuka eIndiya, idayi lize liprintwe eTshayina, lize lilungiswe lenziwe ilaphu kuMzantsi-mpuma Asia, lize ekugqibeleni lihanjiswe ngendlela yoLwandle oluBomvu. Ukuba ikhonkco livalwe ziingxabano ze-geopolitical (ezifana nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwemisonto yomqhaphu waseIndiya kuthintelwe ngenxa yesiphithiphithi sezopolitiko), lonke ikhonkco lemveliso liya kudodobala. Ngo-2024, isithintelo sokuthunyelwa kwentambo yomqhaphu kwamanye amazwe aseIndiya yabangela ukuba iinkampani ezininzi zaseTshayina zoshicilelo nezokudaya ziyeke ukuvelisa ngenxa yokunqongophala kwempahla ekrwada, kwaye izinga lokulibaziseka kokuhanjiswa kwe-odolo lagqitha kuma-30%. Ngenxa yoko, abanye abathengi baphesheya baphendukela kwabanye ababoneleli njengeBangladesh kunye neVietnam, okubangele ilahleko yabathengi yexesha elide.
4. Ulungelelwaniso lweSicwangciso soShishino: Ukusuka kwiMpendulo ePhakamileyo ukuya kuLwakhiwo ngokutsha oluSebenzayo
Ukujongana nokuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela okubangelwa yi-geopolitics, iinkampani zokurhweba ngamalaphu ziyanyanzeleka ukuba zihlengahlengise izicwangciso zazo:
Iindlela zothutho ezohlukeneyo: Ezinye iinkampani zonyusa umlinganiselo woololiwe baseTshayina-Yurophu kunye nothutho lomoya. Ngokomzekelo, inani le-China-Yurophu yokuqeqesha amalaphu e-textile ukusuka e-China ukuya eYurophu ngo-2024 kuya kwanda ngo-40% ngonyaka, kodwa iindleko zokuthutha umzila ziphindwe kathathu ezo zokuthutha elwandle, ezisebenza kuphela kwiilaphu eziphezulu zexabiso (ezifana nesilika kunye neengubo zezemidlalo ezisebenzayo);
Ukuthengwa kwendawo: Ukwandisa utyalo-mali kwikhonkco lokubonelela ngemathiriyeli ekrwada yasekhaya, efana nokunyusa izinga lokusetyenziswa kwemathiriyeli ekrwada yasekhaya efana ne-Xinjiang ende-staple cotton kunye ne-Sichuan bamboo fiber, kunye nokunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwimathiriyeli ekrwada evela kumazwe angaphandle;
Uyilo lweendawo zokugcina iimpahla zaphesheya: Misela indawo yokugcina impahla kwi-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia naseYurophu, gcina iintlobo zelaphu ezisetyenziswa ngokuqhelekileyo kwangaphambili, kwaye unciphise imijikelo yokuhanjiswa-Ekuqaleni kuka-2025, inkampani yelaphu yaseZhejiang igcine i-2 yezigidi zeeyadi zelaphu lomqhaphu kwindawo yokugcina impahla yaphesheya eVietnam, enokuthi iphendule ngokukhawuleza kwii-odolo zempahla zase-Asia ezivela eMzantsi Asia.
Ngokubanzi, ungquzulwano lwe-geopolitical luchaphazele kakhulu uzinzo lwentengiso yelaphu ngokuphazamisa iindlela zokuhamba, ukunyusa iindleko, kunye nokuqhawula amakhonkco okubonelela. Kumashishini, oku kungumceli mngeni kunye namandla kushishino ukukhawulezisa utshintsho lwalo olubhekiselele "kuguquguquka, ukwakhiwa kwendawo, kunye nokwahlukana" ukuze ukwazi ukumelana neempembelelo zokungaqiniseki kwehlabathi.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-26-2025