Ka Phato 5, 2025, India le United Kingdom li ile tsa tsebahatsa ka molao Tumellano e Felletseng ea Moruo le Khoebo (eo hamorao e tla bitsoa "India-UK FTA"). Tšebelisano ena ea bohlokoahali ea khoebo ha e bope bocha likamano tsa linaha tse peli tsa moruo le khoebo lipakeng tsa linaha tsena ka bobeli empa e boetse e tlisa mathata lekaleng la lefatše la khoebo la masela la masela. Litokisetso tsa "zero-therifi" bakeng sa indasteri ea masela tumellanong li ngola bocha maemo a tlholisano a 'maraka oa UK oa thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha, haholo-holo e hlahisa mathata a ka bang teng ho likhoebo tsa masela tsa China tseo e leng khale li laola 'maraka.
Moko oa Tumellano: Litefiso tsa Zero ho Likarolo tsa Masela tse 1,143, India E Rekile 'Maraka oa Keketso oa UK.
Indasteri ea masela e hlahella e le e 'ngoe ea bajalefa ba bohlokoa ba India-UK FTA: mekhahlelo ea masela e 1,143 (e koahelang likarolo tse kholo joalo ka khoele ea k'hothone, lesela le bohlooho, liaparo tse seng li entsoe le masela a lapeng) tse romelloang ho tsoa India ho ea UK li lokolotsoe ka botlalo litefisong, tse ikarabellang bakeng sa hoo e ka bang 85% ea likarolo tse thathamisitsoeng lethathamong la UK. Pele ho mona, lihlahisoa tsa masela tsa India tse kenang 'marakeng oa UK li ne li lefisoa ho tloha ho 5% ho isa ho 12%, athe lihlahisoa tse ling tse tsoang ho bahlolisani ba ka sehloohong joalo ka China le Bangladesh li ne li se li ntse li natefeloa ke litefiso tse tlase tsa lekhetho tlasa Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) kapa litumellano tsa linaha tse peli.
Pheliso e felletseng ea litefiso e matlafalitse ka kotloloho tlholisano ea litheko tsa lihlahisoa tsa masela tsa India 'marakeng oa UK. Ho ea ka lipalo tsa Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI), ka mor'a ho tlosoa ha litefiso, theko ea liaparo tsa Maindia tse lokiselitsoeng 'marakeng oa UK e ka fokotsoa ka 6% -8%. Lekhalo la litheko lipakeng tsa lihlahisoa tsa India le tsa China tsa 同类 le tla fokotseha ho tloha ho 3% -5% e fetileng ho isa tlase ho 1%, 'me lihlahisoa tse ling tsa boemo bo tlase ho isa ho tse tlase li ka ba tsa fumana tekano ea theko kapa tsa feta tsa China.
Mabapi le sekala sa mmaraka, UK ke morekisi oa masela oa boraro ho tse kholo ka ho fetesisa Europe, ka palo ea selemo le selemo ea thepa ea masela ea USD 26.95 billion (data ea 2024). Har'a tsena, liaparo li etsa 62%, masela a lapeng ke 23%, 'me masela le likhoele ke 15%. Ka nako e telele, e ipapisitse le ketane ea eona e felletseng ea indasteri, boleng bo tsitsitseng, le melemo e meholo, China e nkile karolo ea 28% ea karolo ea 'maraka ea thepa ea masela UK, e leng se etsang hore e be morekisi e moholo oa masela UK. Leha India e le mohlahisi oa masela oa bobeli lefatšeng ka bophara, kabelo ea eona 'marakeng oa UK ke 6.6% feela, haholo-holo e shebane le lihlahisoa tse mahareng tse kang khoele ea k'hothone le lesela le bohlooho, tse nang le boleng bo holimo ba thepa e seng e entsoe ka theko e tlase ho feta 30%.
Ho kena ts'ebetsong ha India-UK FTA ho butse "fensetere e ntseng e eketseha" bakeng sa indasteri ea masela ea India. Polelong e lokollotsoeng kamora hore tumellano e kene tšebetsong, Lekala la Masela la India le boletse ka ho hlaka sepheo sa lona sa ho eketsa thepa ea masela ho ea UK ho tloha ho $ 1.78 billion ka 2024 ho isa ho $ 5 billion nakong ea lilemo tse tharo tse tlang, 'me karolo ea mmaraka e feta 18%. Sena se bolela hore India e rera ho khelosa liperesente tse ka bang 11.4 ho tsoa ho karolo e teng ea mmaraka, mme China, joalo ka morekisi e moholo ka ho fetisisa 'marakeng oa UK, e tla ba sepheo sa eona sa mantlha sa tlholisano.
Mathata bakeng sa Indasteri ea Masela ea China: Khatello ho Limmaraka tse Bohareng ho isa ho tse tlase, Melemo ea Phepelo ea Phepelo e ntse e le teng empa ho Hlokahala ho Falimeha.
Bakeng sa likhoebo tsa Machaena tse romelloang kantle ho naha, liqholotso tse tlisoang ke India-UK FTA li shebana haholo le karolo ea sehlahisoa sa mahareng ho isa tlase. Hajoale, liaparo tse seng li lokisitsoe tsa maemo a mahareng ho isa tlase (joalo ka meaparo e tloaelehileng le masela a lapeng) li etsa hoo e ka bang 45% ea thepa ea masela ea China e romelloang UK. Lihlahisoa tsena li na le litšitiso tse tlase tsa tekheniki, tlholisano e matla ea homogeneous, 'me theko ke eona ntho ea mantlha ea tlholisano. India, e nang le melemo ea litšenyehelo tsa basebetsi (moputso o tloaelehileng oa khoeli le khoeli oa basebetsi ba masela ba Maindia ke hoo e ka bang 1/3 ea ea Chaena) le lisebelisoa tsa k'hothone (India ke moetsi e moholo oa lefats'e oa k'hothone), hammoho le phokotso ea litefiso, li ka hohela barekisi ba UK ho fetisetsa karolo ea liodara tsa bona tsa mahareng ho isa ho tse tlase ho ea India.
Ho latela pono ea likhoebo tse ikhethileng, maano a ho reka a barekisi ba liketane tse kholo tsa UK (joalo ka Marks & Spencer, Primark, le ASDA) a bonts'itse matšoao a phetoho. Ho latela mehloli ea indasteri, Primark e saenetse litumellano tsa phepelo ea nako e telele le lifeme tse 3 tsa liaparo tsa India mme o rerile ho eketsa karolelano ea theko ea liaparo tse tloaelehileng tsa bohareng ho isa ho tse tlase ho tloha ho 10% ho isa ho 30%. Marks & Spencer o boetse a boletse hore e tla eketsa palo ea theko ea lihlahisoa tsa masela a entsoeng ka lapeng a India nakong ea hoetla le mariha ea 2025-2026, ka karolo ea pele ea sepheo sa 15%.
Leha ho le joalo, indasteri ea masela ea China ha e na tšireletso. Botšepehi ba ketane ea indasteri le melemo ea lihlahisoa tsa boleng bo phahameng e ntse e le senotlolo sa ho hanela tlhōlisano. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, China e na le moralo o felletseng oa ketane ea indasteri ho tloha ho fiber ea lik'hemik'hale, ho ohla, ho loha, ho hatisa le ho daea ho ea ho liaparo tse seng li entsoe. Lebelo la karabelo la ketane ea liindasteri (ka karolelano ea potoloho ea ho fana ka odara ea matsatsi a ka bang 20) e potlakile haholo ho feta ea India (matsatsi a ka bang 35-40), e leng ea bohlokoa bakeng sa lihlahisoa tsa feshene tse potlakileng tse hlokang ho phetoa ka potlako. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, melemo ea China ea ho bokella theknoloji le bokhoni ba tlhahiso lefapheng la masela a boleng bo holimo (joalo ka masela a sebetsang, lihlahisoa tsa fiber tse tsosolositsoeng, le masela a bohlale) ho thata ho India ho feta nakong e khutšoanyane. Mohlala, thepa e romelloang kantle ea China ea masela a recycled polyester le masela a antibacterial lapeng UK ho etsa chelete e fetang 40% ea 'maraka oa UK, haholo-holo e tobane le bareki ba mofuta oa maemo a holimo ho isa ho a holimo, mme karolo ena ha e amehe haholo ke litefiso.
Ntle le moo, "sebopeho sa lefats'e" sa likhoebo tsa masela tsa China le sona se thibela likotsi tsa 'maraka o le mong. Lilemong tsa morao tjena, likhoebo tse ngata tsa masela tsa Machaena li thehile metheo ea tlhahiso Asia Boroa-bochabela le Afrika ho kena 'marakeng oa Europe ka ho phahamisa likhetho tsa litefiso tsa lehae. Mohlala, feme ea Vietnam ea Shenzhou International e ka thabela litefiso tsa zero ka Tumellano ea Khoebo ea Mahala ea EU-Vietnam, 'me thepa ea eona ea lipapali e romelloa kantle ho akhaonto ea UK bakeng sa 22% ea 'maraka oa kantle ho naha oa UK. Karolo ena ea khoebo ha e amehe ka kotloloho ke India-UK FTA.
Kameho e Atolositsoeng ea Indasteri: Ho Potlakisa Setereke sa Phepelo ea Masela ea Lefatše, Likhoebo li Lokela ho Tsepamisa Maikutlo ho "Tlhōlisano e Fapaneng"
Ho kena ts'ebetsong ea India-UK FTA ha e le hantle ke ntho e nyenyane ea mokhoa oa lefats'e oa "regionalization" le "tumellano e thehiloeng" nts'etsopele ea phepelo ea masela. Lilemong tsa morao tjena, litumellano tsa khoebo e sa lefelloeng ea linaha tse peli tse kang EU-Indonesia FTA, UK-India FTA, le US-Vietnam FTA li phethetsoe ka matla. E 'ngoe ea mabaka a mantlha ke ho aha "liketane tsa phepelo e haufi le lebopo" kapa "liketane tsa phepelo ea ally" ka likhetho tsa litefiso, 'me mokhoa ona o hlophisa bocha melao ea khoebo ea masela ea lefats'e.
Bakeng sa likhoebo tsa masela ho pota lefatše, maano a karabelo a hloka ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho "phapang":
Likhoebo tsa India: Ka nako e khuts'oane, li hloka ho sebetsana le litaba tse joalo ka tlhahiso e sa lekaneng ea tlhahiso le botsitso ba phepelo ea thepa (mohlala, ho feto-fetoha ha litheko tsa k'hothone, khaello ea motlakase) ho qoba tieho ea phano e bakoang ke ho eketseha ha litaelo. Ha nako e ntse e ea, ba hloka ho eketsa karolo ea lihlahisoa tsa boleng bo phahameng le ho tlohela ho itšetleha ka 'maraka oa bohareng ho isa ho o tlaase.
Likhoebo tsa Machaena: Ka lehlakoreng le leng, li ka kopanya karolo ea tsona 'marakeng oa maemo a holimo ka ntlafatso ea theknoloji (mohlala, ho etsa masela a se nang tikoloho le likhoele tse sebetsang hantle). Ka lehlakoreng le leng, ba ka matlafatsa tšebelisano-'moho e tebileng le li-brand tsa UK (mohlala, ho fana ka moralo o hlophisitsoeng le lits'ebeletso tsa phepelo ea phepelo e potlakileng) ho matlafatsa ho tiea ha bareki. Ka nako e ts'oanang, ba ka sebelisa mohato oa "Belt le Road" ho qoba lithibelo tsa litefiso ka ho fetisetsa thepa ka linaha tsa boraro kapa tlhahiso ea mose ho maoatle.
Bahoebi ba UK: Ba hloka ho leka-lekana lipakeng tsa litšenyehelo le botsitso ba phepelo ea thepa. Leha lihlahisoa tsa India li na le melemo e hlahelletseng ea litheko, li tobane le likotsi tse phahameng tsa phepelo ea thepa. Lihlahisoa tsa Machaena, le hoja li le theko e phahameng hanyenyane, li fana ka boleng bo tiisitsoeng haholoanyane le botsitso ba ho fana ka thepa. Ho lebeletsoe hore 'maraka oa UK o tla hlahisa mekhoa e' meli ea phepelo ea "high-end ho tloha Chaena + bohareng ba ho ea tlaase ho tloha India" nakong e tlang.
Ka kakaretso, phello ea India-UK FTA indastering ea masela ha e "tšitiso" empa ho e-na le hoo e khothalletsa ntlafatso ea tlhōlisano ea 'maraka ho tloha "lintoa tsa theko" ho "lintoa tsa bohlokoa". Bakeng sa likhoebo tsa masela tsa Machaena tse romelloang kantle ho naha, li hloka ho ba seli khahlano le tahlehelo ea karolo ea limmaraka tse bohareng ho isa ho tse tlase ka nako e khuts'oane, 'me ka nako e telele, ba hahe melemo e mecha ea tlholisano tlasa melao e mecha ea khoebo ka ntlafatso ea ketane ea indasteri le sebopeho sa lefats'e.
Nako ea poso: Aug-22-2025