Dhowaan, dawladda Maraykanku waxay sii waday inay kordhiso siyaasaddeeda "tacriifadaha is-dhaafsiga", oo si rasmi ah ay ugu jiraan Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka liiska cunaqabataynta waxayna ku soo rogtay canshuur sare oo ah 37% iyo 44% siday u kala horreeyaan. Talaabadan kaliya kuma aysan dhicin "dharbaaxo lala beegsaday" nidaamyada dhaqaalaha ee labada dal, kuwaas oo aad ugu tiirsan dhoofinta dharka, laakiin sidoo kale waxay kicisay falcelinta silsiladda silsiladda sahayda dharka ee caalamiga ah. Warshadaha dharka iyo dharka ee gudaha Mareykanka ayaa sidoo kale lagu qabtay cadaadis laba geesood ah oo ah qiimaha sare u kaca iyo jahwareerka silsilada saadka.
I. Bangladesh: Dhoofinta Dharka ayaa lumiyay $3.3 Bilyan, Malaayiin Shaqooyin ah ayaa Saaran
Sida dhoofinta dharka labaad ee ugu weyn adduunka, warshadaha dharka iyo dharka ayaa ah "xariiq nololeedka dhaqaalaha" ee Bangladesh. Warshadahani waxa ay ka qayb qaataan 11% GDP guud ee dalka, 84% wadarta guud ee wax dhoofinta, waxa ay si toos ah u shaqaysiinayaan in ka badan 4 milyan oo qof (80% ka mid ah waa haween xoogsato ah). Waxa kale oo ay si dadban u taageertaa hab-nololeedyada in ka badan 15 milyan oo qof oo ku jira silsiladaha warshadaha ee kor iyo kuwa hoose. Mareykanka waa suuqa labaad ee ugu weyn Bangladesh ee wax loo dhoofiyo marka laga reebo Midowga Yurub. Sannadkii 2023, dhoofinta dharka iyo dharka Bangladesh ee loo dhoofiyo Maraykanka waxa ay gaadhay $6.4 bilyan, taas oo ka dhigan in ka badan 95% wadarta guud ee ay u dhoofiso Maraykanka, taas oo daboolaysa badhtamaha ilaa dhamaadka-dhamaadka-dhamaadka badeecadaha macaamilka sida funaanadaha, jiinisyada, iyo shaadhka, iyo u adeegida sida silsilad sahayda aasaasiga ah ee tafaariiqda Maraykanka sida Walmart iyo Target.
Canshuurta Mareykanka uu kusoo rogay 37% wax soo saarka Bangladesh ayaa markan la macno ah in funaanadda suufka ah ee Bangladesh, oo markii hore qiimaheedu ahaa $10, qiimihii dhoofintana uu ahaa $15, uu bixin doono $5.55 dheeraad ah oo tariif ah marka uu galo suuqa Mareykanka, isagoo wadarta qiimaha ku kacaya ilaa $20.55 toos ah. Warshadaha dharka ee Bangladesh, kuwaas oo ku tiirsan "qiimaha jaban iyo faa'iidada khafiifka ah" sida faa'iidada ugu weyn ee tartanka, heerka tarifkani wuxuu aad uga badan yahay celceliska faa'iidada warshadaha ee 5% -8%. Marka loo eego qiyaasaha Ururka Soosaarayaasha Dharka iyo Dhoofinta ee Bangladesh (BGMEA), ka dib marka canshuurtu dhaqan gasho, dhoofinta dharka dalka ee loo dhoofiyo Mareykanka waxay hoos uga dhici doontaa $6.4 bilyan sanadkii ilaa ku dhawaad $3.1 bilyan, iyadoo khasaare sanadle ah ilaa $3.3 bilyan - oo u dhiganta in laga xayuubiyo saamiga suuqa ee dalka Mareykanka ku dhawaad kala bar warshadaha dharka ee Mareykanka.
Si ka sii daran, hoos u dhaca dhoofinta ayaa kicisay mowjado shaqo joojin ah oo ku yimid warshadaha. Ilaa hadda, 27 warshadood oo dhar ah oo yaryar iyo kuwo dhexdhexaad ah oo ku yaal Bangladesh ayaa joojiyay wax soo saarkooda sababo la xiriira amarro lumay, taasoo keentay shaqo la'aan ku dhawaad 18,000 oo shaqaale ah. BGMEA ayaa ka digtay in haddii canshuurtu ay sii jirto in ka badan lix bilood ay xirmi doonaan in ka badan 50 warshadood oo ku yaalla dalka, iyadoo tirada dadka shaqo la’aanta ah ay kor u dhaafi karto 100,000, taasoo saameyn ku yeelan doonta xasilloonida bulshada iyo ammaanka nolosha dadka ee dalka. Isla mar ahaantaana, warshadaha dharka ee Bangladesh waxay si aad ah ugu tiirsan yihiin suufka dibadda laga keeno (qiyaastii 90% suufka ayaa loo baahan yahay in laga soo iibsado Maraykanka iyo Hindiya). Hoos u dhaca ba'an ee dakhliga dhoofinta ayaa sidoo kale horseedi doona yaraanta kaydka sarifka lacagaha qalaad, taas oo saamaynaysa awoodda dalka ee soo dejinta alaabta ceeriin sida suufka iyo abuurista wareeg xun oo ah " dhoofinta hoos u dhaca → yaraanta alaabta ceeriin → awoodda oo yaraada".
II. Sri Lanka: 44% Tacriiftu waxay jebisaa Kharashka gunta hoose, Warshadaha Tiirka oo qarka u saaran "Jabinta Silsiladda"
Marka la barbar dhigo Bangladesh, warshadaha dharka ee Sri Lanka waa ka miisaan yar yihiin laakiin si la mid ah "dhagaxa geeska" ee dhaqaalaheeda qaranka. Warshadaha dharka iyo dharka ayaa ka qayb qaata 5% GDP-ga dalka iyo 45% wadarta guud ee dhoofinta, iyada oo in ka badan 300,000 shaqaale toos ah, taas oo ka dhigaysa warshad udub dhexaad u ah soo kabashada dhaqaalaha Sri Lanka dagaalka ka dib. Waxyaalaha ay u dhoofiso Maraykanka waxa u badan dhar dhexda ilaa-dhamaadka sare ah iyo dharka shaqaynaya (sida dharka ciyaaraha iyo nigisyada). Sannadkii 2023-kii, wax-soo-saarka dharka ee Sri Lanka ee loo dhoofiyo Mareykanka wuxuu gaaray $1.8 bilyan, taasoo ka dhigan 7% suuqyada wax-soo-dejinta Mareykanka ee dharka dhex-ilaa-sare ah.
Kordhinta Maraykanka ee sicirka tacriifada Sri Lanka oo la gaadhsiiyay 44% wakhtigan ayaa ka dhigaysa mid ka mid ah wadamada leh qiimaha tacriifada ugu badan wareegan “tarifyada is-dhaafsiga ah”. Marka loo eego falanqaynta Ururka Dhoofinta Dharka ee Sri Lanka (SLAEA), sicirka tarifkani wuxuu si toos ah kor ugu qaadi doonaa kharashyada dhoofinta dharka ee dalka ilaa 30%. Qaadashada badeecada dhoofinta calanka Sri Lanka—“ dharka isboortiga ee suufka ah” - tusaale ahaan, qiimaha dhoofinta asalka ah mitirkiiba wuxuu ahaa $8. Kordhinta tacriifta ka dib, qiimuhu wuxuu gaadhay $11.52, halka qiimaha badeecadaha la midka ah ee Hindiya iyo Vietnam laga keeno uu yahay $ 9- $ 10 oo keliya. Qiimaha tartanka ee badeecadaha Sri Lanka ayaa ku dhawaad gebi ahaanba burburay.
Waqtigan xaadirka ah, tiro ka mid ah ganacsiyada dhoofinta ee Sri Lanka ayaa helay "ogaysiisyada joojinta dalbashada" macaamiisha Mareykanka. Tusaale ahaan, Brandix Group, oo ah dhoofinta dharka ugu weyn Sri Lanka, waxay asal ahaan soo saartay nigis shaqeynaya summada isboortiga Mareykanka ee Under Armor oo leh mug bil kasta ah oo 500,000 ah. Hadda, arrimaha qiimaha tacriifada awgeed, Under Armor waxay u wareejisay 30% amarradeeda warshadaha Vietnam. Shirkad kale oo lagu magacaabo Hirdaramani, ayaa sheegtay in haddii canshuuraha aan la qaadin, in ganacsiga ay u dhoofiso Mareykanka uu khasaare soo gaari doono saddex bilood gudahood, lagana yaabo in lagu qasbo in la xiro laba warshadood oo ku yaalla Colombo, taasoo saameynaysa 8,000 oo shaqo. Intaa waxaa dheer, warshadaha dunta ee Sri Lanka waxay ku tiirsan yihiin qaabka "ku-habaynta alaabta dibedda laga keeno" (qalabka cayriin ee la soo dhoofiyo waxay xisaabiyaan 70% wadarta guud). Xayiraadda dhoofinta waxay u horseedi doontaa dib u dhac ku yimaada agabka alaabada ceyriinka ah, qabsashada raasamaalkii shaqada ee shirkadaha waxayna uga sii dari doontaa dhibaatooyinkooda shaqo.
III. Waaxda Gudaha ee Maraykanka: Qalalaasaha Silsiladda Sahayda + Kharashyada Sare u kaca, Warshadaha ayaa lagu Qabtay "Dhibaatada"
Siyaasadda canshuuraha ee dowladda Mareykanka, oo u muuqata in ay beegsaneyso "tartamayaasha dibadda", ayaa dhab ahaantii keentay "dib u dhac" ka dhan ah warshadaha dharka iyo dharka gudaha. Sida soo dejinta ugu weyn adduunka ee dharka iyo dharka (oo leh mugga soo dejinta $ 120 bilyan sanadka 2023), warshadaha dharka iyo dharka ee Mareykanka ayaa soo bandhigaya qaab “wax soo saarka gudaha ee sare iyo ku-tiirsanaanta soo dejinta” -shirkadaha guduhu waxay inta badan soo saaraan alaabada ceyriin sida suufka iyo fiilooyinka kiimikada, halka 90% alaabada dharka dhammaatay ay ku tiirsan yihiin soo dejinta. Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka waa ilo muhiim ah oo laga helo dharka-dhamaadka-dhamaadka-hooseeya iyo dharka-dhamaadka-dhamaadka-sare ee Maraykanka
Kordhinta tariifada ayaa si toos ah kor ugu qaaday kharashaadka wax iibsiga ee shirkadaha gudaha ee Maraykanka. Sahan ay sameeyeen Ururka Dharka iyo Kabaha ee Maraykanka (AAFA) ayaa muujinaya in celceliska faa'iidada faa'iidada ee alaab-qeybiyeyaasha dharka iyo dharka ee Mareykanka ay hadda tahay 3%-5% kaliya. 37%-44% tacriif macneheedu waxa weeye in shirkaduhu "ay qaataan kharashaadka laftooda" (oo u horseedaysa khasaare) ama "ay u gudbiyaan si ay u dhameeyaan qiimaha". Haddii aan tusaale u soo qaadano JC Penney, oo ah tafaariiqle gudaha Maraykanka ah, qiimihii tafaariiqda asalka ahaa ee jeansiinta ee laga soo iibsaday Bangladesh wuxuu ahaa $49.9. Ka dib kordhinta tacriifta, haddii faa'iidada faa'iidada la sii wado, qiimaha tafaariiqda wuxuu u baahan yahay inuu kordho $ 68.9, koror ku dhawaad 40%. Haddii aan qiimaha la kordhin, faa'iidada labadii surwaalba waxay hoos uga dhici doontaa $3 ilaa $0.5, taasoo ka tagaysa ku dhawaad wax faa'iido ah.
Isla mar ahaantaana, hubin la'aanta silsiladda sahaydu waxay gelisay ganacsiyada "khasaaraha go'aan qaadashada". Julia Hughes, Madaxweynaha AAFA, ayaa ku tilmaantay shirweynihii warshadaha ee dhowaan in shirkadaha Maraykanku ay markii hore qorsheeyeen inay yareeyaan khataraha iyagoo "kala-duwan goobaha wax iibsiga" (sida amarrada qaar ee Shiinaha laga soo wareejiyo Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka). Si kastaba ha ahaatee, korodhka lama filaanka ah ee siyaasadda tacriiftu waxay carqaladaysay dhammaan qorshayaashii: "Shirkaduhu ma yaqaaniin waddanka ku xiga ee lagu soo rogayo kordhinta tacriifada, mana garanayaan muddada qiimaha tarifku uu socon doono. kuma dhiiradaan inay si sahal ah u saxiixaan qandaraasyo waqti dheer ah alaab-qeybiyeyaal cusub, iska daa in ay maalgeliyaan dhismaha waddooyinka cusub ee sahayda." Waqtigan xaadirka ah, 35% soo dejinta dharka Mareykanka ayaa sheegay inay "hakin doonaan saxiixa amarada cusub", 28% ganacsiyada ayaa bilaabay inay dib u qiimeeyaan silsiladahooda sahayda, iyagoo tixgelinaya u wareejinta amarada Mexico iyo wadamada Bartamaha Ameerika ee aan hoos loo dhigin canshuuraha. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, awoodda wax-soo-saarka ee gobolladan waa mid xadidan (kaliya waxay awoodaan inay fuliyaan 15% dharka Maraykanka ee la soo dejiyo), taas oo adkeynaysa in la buuxiyo farqiga suuqa ee ay ka tageen Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka muddada gaaban.
Intaa waxaa dheer, macaamiisha Mareykanka ayaa ugu dambeyntii "cagaha gelin doona biilka". Xogta laga soo xigtay Xafiiska Tirakoobka Shaqaalaha ee Mareykanka ayaa muujineysa in laga soo bilaabo 2024, Tusmada Qiimaha Macaamiisha Mareykanka (CPI) ee dharka uu kor u kacay 3.2% sanad kasta. Halsano joogtada ah ee siyaasadda tacriiftu waxay horseedi kartaa 5%-7% korodhka qiimaha dharka dhamaadka sanadka, taasoo sii xoojinaysa cadaadiska sicir bararka. Kooxaha dakhligoodu hooseeyo, kharashka dharku wuxuu xisaabiyaa qayb aad u sarreeya oo dakhliga la tuuri karo (qiyaastii 8%), iyo kor u kaca qiimaha waxay si toos ah u saameyn doontaa awoodooda isticmaalka, taas oo hoos u dhigi doonta baahida suuqa dharka gudaha ee Maraykanka.
IV. Dib u dhiska silsilada sahayda dharka ee caalamiga ah: fowdo wakhtiga gaaban iyo hagaajinta mudada dheer wada noolaanshaha
Kordhinta Maraykanka ee canshuuraha Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka ayaa asal ahaan ah microkosm-ka "Joopoliticization" ee silsiladda sahayda dharka caalamiga ah. Muddada gaaban, siyaasaddani waxay keentay "aagga faaruqinta" ee silsiladda sahayda dharka ee caalamiga ah ee dhexe-ilaa-hoose-hooseeya-khasaaraha amarka ee Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka si buuxda uma qabsan karaan dalal kale muddada gaaban, taas oo kicin karta "yaraanta alaabada" ee qaar ka mid ah dukaamada Maraykanka. Isla markaana, hoos u dhaca warshadaha dharka ee labadan waddan ayaa sidoo kale saamayn doona baahida loo qabo alaabta ceeriin ee kor u kacda sida suufka iyo fiilooyinka kiimikada, taas oo saameyn aan toos ahayn ku yeelanaysa waddamada dhoofiya suufka sida Maraykanka iyo Hindiya.
Muddada dheer, silsiladda sahayda dharka ee caalamiga ah waxay dardargelin kartaa hagaajinteeda dhinaca "meel u dhow" iyo "kala duwanaansho": Shirkadaha Maraykanku waxay u gudbin karaan amarada Mexico iyo Canada (ku raaxaysiga dookhyada tariifka ee hoos yimaada Heshiiska Ganacsiga Xorta ah ee Waqooyiga Ameerika), Shirkadaha Yurub waxay kordhin karaan wax iibsiga ee Turkiga iyo Morocco, halka shirkadaha Shiinaha ee dharka, ku tiirsan yihiin "nidaamka warshadaha wax soo saarka ee dhameystiran" ka faa'iidaysan karaan wax soo saarka suufka dhamaystiran. qaar ka mid ah amarada u dhexeeya-dhamaadka sare (sida dhar shaqaynaysa iyo lebbiska deegaanka ku habboon) oo laga soo wareejiyo Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, habka hagaajinta ayaa qaadan doona wakhti (qiyaastii 1-2 sano) waxaana la socon doona kharashaadka kor u kaca ee dib u dhiska sahayda, taas oo adkeynaysa in si buuxda loo yareeyo jahwareerka warshadaha ee wakhtiga gaaban.
Shirkadaha ganacsiga shisheeye ee dharka ee Shiinaha, wareegan tacriifadda tariiftu waxay keenaysaa labada caqabadood (baahida loo qabo in lala tacaalo baahida caalamiga ah ee daciifka ah iyo tartanka saadka) iyo fursadaha qarsoon. Waxay xoojin karaan iskaashiga ay la leeyihiin warshadaha maxalliga ah ee Bangladesh iyo Sri Lanka (sida bixinta taageero farsamo iyo wax soo saarka wadajirka ah) si looga fogaado caqabadaha tacriifada Mareykanka. Isla markaana, waxay kordhin karaan dadaallada lagu sahaminayo suuqyada soo koraya sida Koonfur-bari Aasiya iyo Afrika, iyagoo yareynaya ku tiirsanaanta hal suuq oo Yurub iyo Mareykanka ah, si ay meel wanaagsan uga helaan dib-u-dhiska silsiladda sahayda adduunka.
Waqtiga boostada: Agoosto-16-2025