Munguva pfupi yapfuura, hurumende yeUS yakaramba ichiwedzera mutemo wayo we "reciprocal tariff", zviri pamutemo kusanganisira Bangladesh neSri Lanka muhurongwa hwezvirango uye nekuisa mutero wepamusoro we37% uye 44% zvakateerana. Danho iri harina kungobata "zvakatarwa" kune masisitimu ehupfumi hwenyika mbiri idzi, ayo anonyanya kutsamira pakutengesa machira kunze, asi zvakare akakonzeresa kuita cheni mucheni yepasi rose yekugadzira machira. Indasitiri yekuUS yembatya yembatya neyezvipfeko yakabatwawo mukumanikidzwa kuviri kwekukwira kwemitengo uye kusagadzikana kwekutengesa.
I. Bangladesh: Textile Exports Inorasikirwa nemadhora 3.3 Bhiriyoni, Mamirioni eMabasa Ari Panjodzi
Semutengesi wembatya wechipiri pakukura pasi rose, indasitiri yemachira nembatya ndiyo “nzira inoraramisa upfumi” yeBangladesh. Indasitiri iyi inopa 11% yeGDP yenyika yose, 84% yehuwandu hwayo hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika, uye inotungamira zvakananga kushandwa kwevanhu vanopfuura mamirioni mana (80% avo vari vashandi vechikadzi). Inotsigirawo zvisina kunanga raramo yevanhu vanopfuura mamirioni gumi nemashanu vari kumusoro nekudzika kwemaindasitiri cheni. United States ndiyo yechipiri pamusika wekutengesa kunze kwenyika muBangladesh mushure meEuropean Union. Muna 2023, machira eBangladesh nembatya aitengesa kunze kwenyika kuUS akasvika madhora mazana matanhatu nemazana mana emadhora, achiverengera anopfuura makumi mapfumbamwe neshanu muzana ezvekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuUS, achifukidza pakati-kusvika-pasi-pasi-anomhanya-ekupedzisira zvinhu zvevatengi zvakaita seT-shirts, jeans, uye mashati, uye kushanda seyomboro yekugovera ketani sosi yevatengesi veUS uye Target.
Kuiswa kweUS mutero we37% pazvigadzirwa zveBangladesh panguva ino kunoreva kuti t-shirt yedonje kubva kuBangladesh, iyo pakutanga yaive nemutengo wemadhora gumi uye mutengo wekunze wemadhora gumi nemashanu, ichafanira kubhadhara imwe madhora mashanu neshanu mumitero mushure mekupinda mumusika weUS, ichisundira mutengo wakakwana kusvika kumadhora makumi maviri neshanu. Kune indasitiri yemachira yeBangladesh, iyo inotsamira pa "mutengo wakaderera uye mutete purofiti miganho" seyayo musimboti mukana wemakwikwi, mutero uyu wakapfuura avhareji yepurofiti yeindasitiri ye5% -8%. Zvinoenderana nefungidziro yakaitwa neBangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), mushure mekunge mutero watanga kushanda, machira emunyika kuenda kuUS achadonha kubva pamadhora mazana matanhatu nemazana mana emadhora pagore kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemazana matatu emadhora, nekurasikirwa kwepagore kweanosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matatu nemazana matatu emadhora, zvakaenzana nekutorera nyika indasitiri yemachira.
Zvakatonyanya kukosha, kudzikira kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakonzera kuwanda kwekudzingwa muindasitiri. Parizvino, mafekitori madiki uye epakati nepakati muBangladesh akamira kugadzira nekuda kwekurasika kwemirairo, zvichikonzera kushaikwa kwevashandi vangangosvika zviuru gumi nezvisere. BGMEA yakayambira kuti kana mitero ikaramba iripo kwemwedzi inodarika mitanhatu, mafekitori anodarika makumi mashanu munyika yose achavharwa, uye huwandu hwevanhu vasina mabasa hunogona kudarika zviuru zana, zvichikanganisa kugadzikana kwevanhu pamwe nekuchengetedza raramo yevanhu munyika. Panguva imwecheteyo, indasitiri yemachira yeBangladesh inotsamira zvakanyanya padonje rinounzwa kunze kwenyika (inenge 90% yedonje inoda kutengwa kubva kuUS neIndia). Kudzikira kwakanyanya kwemari inowanikwa kunze kwenyika kunozokonzerawo kushomeka kwemari yekunze, zvichikanganisa kukwanisa kwenyika kupinza zvinhu kunze kwenyika zvakaita sedonje uye kuunza mhirizhonga “yekuderera kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika → kushomeka kwezvigadzirwa → kuderera kwesimba”.
II. Sri Lanka: 44% Mutero Unotyora Mutengo Pazasi, Indasitiri yembiru paBrink ye "Chain Breakage"
Kana ichienzaniswa neBangladesh, indasitiri yemachira yeSri Lanka idiki pachiyero asi zvakaenzana “ibwe repakona” rehupfumi hwenyika. Indasitiri yemachira neyezvipfeko inopa 5% yeGDP yenyika uye 45% yehuwandu hwayo hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika, ine vashandi vakananga vanopfuura mazana matatu ezviuru, zvichiita kuti ive indasitiri yepakati yekudzoreredza hupfumi hweSri Lanka mushure mehondo. Inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUS inotongwa nepakati-kusvika-yepamusoro-machira uye zvipfeko zvinoshanda (senge zvemitambo uye zvemukati). Muna 2023, machira eSri Lanka aitengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUS akasvika madhora bhiriyoni 1.8, achiverengera 7% yemusika wekuUS wekutengesa kunze kwemachira epakati-kusvika-epamusoro-soro.
Kuwedzera kweUS kwemari yemitero yeSri Lanka kusvika pa44% panguva ino inoita kuti ive imwe yenyika dzine mutero wepamusoro-soro muchikamu ichi che "reciprocal tariffs". Zvinoenderana neongororo yakaitwa neSri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA), mutero uyu uchakwidza mitengo yekunze kwenyika nezvikamu makumi matatu kubva muzana. Tichitora chigadzirwa cheSri Lanka chinotengeswa kunze kwenyika— “organic cotton sportswear fabric” — semuenzaniso, mutengo wekutanga kunze kwenyika pamita waive madhora masere. Mushure mekukwira kwemitengo, mutengo wakakwira kusvika kumadhora gumi nemazana mashanu nemazana mashanu nemazana mashanu, ukuwo mutengo wezvigadzirwa zvakafanana zvinotengeswa kubva kuIndia neVietnam zvinongova madhora mapfumbamwe negumi. Iko kukwikwidza kwemutengo wezvigadzirwa zveSri Lankan kwave kuda kupera zvachose.
Parizvino, akati wandei emabhizinesi ekunze muSri Lanka akagamuchira "kumisa ziviso" kubva kune vatengi veUS. Semuyenzaniso, Brandix Group, mutengesi mukuru wembatya weSri Lanka, akatanga agadzira zvipfeko zvemukati zvinoshanda zvemhando yeSports brand Under Armor ine odha yepamwedzi ye500,000 zvidimbu. Ikozvino, nekuda kwemitengo yemitengo, Under Armor yakaendesa makumi matatu muzana emirairo yayo kumafekitori eVietnam. Rimwe bhizinesi, Hirdaramani, rakataura kuti kana mutero ukasabviswa, bhizinesi rayo rekutengesa kunze kwenyika kuUS richarasikirwa mukati memwedzi mitatu, uye rinogona kumanikidzwa kuvhara mafekitori maviri ari muColombo, zvichikanganisa mabasa zviuru zvisere. Pamusoro pezvo, indasitiri yemachira yeSri Lanka inovimba nemuenzaniso we "kugadzirisa nezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika" (zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvinotora 70% yehuwandu). Iko kuvharika kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kunotungamira kune kuseri kweiyo raw material inventory, kutora mari yekushanda yemabhizinesi uye kuwedzera kuoma kwavo kwekushanda.
III. US Domestic Sector: Supply Chain Turmoil + Kukwira Kwemitengo, Indasitiri Yakabatwa mu "Dilemma"
Mutemo wemitero wehurumende yeUS, uyo unoratidzika kunge wakanangana ne“vakwikwidzi vemhiri kwemakungwa”, wakonzera “kusagadzikana” paindasitiri yemachira nembatya. Semutengesi mukuru wepasirese wemicheka nembatya (nehuwandu hwemadhora mazana maviri nemakumi maviri emadhora muna 2023), indasitiri yemachira nembatya yekuUS inopa maitiro e "kumusoro kwekugadzira mudzimba uye kudzika-kudzika kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika" - mabhizinesi emumba anonyanya kugadzira zvinhu zvakaita sedonje nemakemikari fiber, nepo 90% yezvigadzirwa zvembatya zvakapedzwa zvichitsamira pakutenga kunze kwenyika. Bangladesh neSri Lanka zvitubu zvakakosha zvepakati-kusvika-pasi-yekupedzisira zvipfeko uye epakati-kusvika-yepamusoro-yekupedzisira machira eUS.
Kuwedzera kwemitero kwakwidza zvakananga mutengo wekutenga wemabhizinesi epamba eUS. Ongororo yakaitwa neAmerican Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) inoratidza kuti avhareji yepurofiti yevanotengesa machira nembatya vekuUS ingori 3% -5% parizvino. Mutero we 37% -44% unoreva kuti makambani anogona "kutora mari yacho" (zvinotungamira mukurasikirwa) kana "kupfuudza kuti mitengo ipere". Tichitora JC Penney, mutengesi wekuAmerica wekuAmerica, semuenzaniso, mutengo wepakutanga wejean wakatengwa kubva kuBangladesh waiva $49.9. Mushure mekuwedzera kwemitero, kana mari yepurofiti ichizochengetedzwa, mutengo wekutengesa unofanirwa kukwira kusvika ku68.9 $, kuwedzera kweanenge 40%. Kana mutengo ukasawedzerwa, purofiti yega yega bhurugwa inodonha kubva pamadhora matatu kusvika kumadhora 0.5, ichisiya inenge isina purofiti.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kusavimbika kweketani yekugovera kwakaisa mabhizinesi mu "dambudziko rekuita sarudzo". Julia Hughes, Mutungamiri weAAFA, akataura pamusangano weindasitiri uchangoburwa kuti mabhizinesi eUS pakutanga akaronga kudzikisa njodzi ne "kusiyanisa nzvimbo dzekutenga" (sekutamisa mamwe maodha kubva kuChina kuenda kuBangladesh neSri Lanka). Zvisinei, kukwira kusingatarisirwi kwemutemo wemitero kwakavhiringidza zvirongwa zvose: “Makambani haazivi kuti ndeipi nyika ichatevera kukwidzwa kwemitero, uyewo haazivi kuti mitengo yemitero ichagara kwenguva yakareba sei. Parizvino, makumi matatu neshanu muzana evatengesi vembatya vekuUS vataura kuti "vachamisa kusaina maodha matsva", uye 28% yemabhizinesi vatanga kuongororazve macheni avo ekutenga, vachifunga nezvekuendesa maodha kuMexico neCentral America nyika dzisina kuvharwa nemitero. Nekudaro, huwandu hwekugadzira mumatunhu aya hushoma (kungokwanisa kuita gumi neshanu muzana yezvipfeko zveUS zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika), zvichiita kuti zviome kuzadza gaka remusika rakasiiwa neBangladesh neSri Lanka munguva pfupi.
Uye zvakare, vatengi veUS vanozopedzisira "vatsika bhiri". Dhata kubva kuUS Bureau yeLabour Statistics inoratidza kuti kubvira 2024, iyo US Consumer Price Index (CPI) yekupfeka yakakwira ne3.2% gore-pagore. Kuramba kuviriswa kwemutemo wemitero kunogona kukonzera kumwe kukwira kwemitengo yembatya ne5% -7% pakupera kwegore, zvichiwedzera kukwira kwemitengo. Kumapoka ane mari yakaderera, mashandisirwo ezvipfeko anotora chikamu chakati wandei chemari inoraswa (anenge 8%), uye kukwira kwemitengo kuchakanganisa huwandu hwavo hwekushandisa, zvichidzikamisa kudiwa kwemusika wembatya weUS.
IV. Kuvakwazve kweGlobal Textile Supply Chain: Pfupi-Nguva Yenguva pfupi uye Yenguva Yakareba Kugadziriswa Kunoenderana
Kukwira kweUS kwemitero kuBangladesh neSri Lanka kunonyanya kuita microcosm ye "geopoliticization" yepasi rose machira ekutengesa machira. Nenguva pfupi, mutemo uyu wakatungamira kune "vacuum zone" munzvimbo yepasirese yepakati-kusvika-yakaderera-yekupedzisira-kurasikirwa kwezvipfeko muBangladesh neSri Lanka hakugone kubatwa zvizere nedzimwe nyika munguva pfupi, izvo zvinogona kukonzeresa "kushomeka kwezvinhu" kune vamwe vatengesi veUS. Zvichakadaro, kudzikira kwemaindasitiri ezvemachira munyika mbiri idzi kuchakanganisawo kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakakwira kumusoro zvakaita sedonje nemakemikari fibers, zvichikonzera kukanganisa kwakananga kunyika dzinotengesa donje kunze kwenyika dzakaita seUS neIndia.
Nekufamba kwenguva, machira epasi rese ekutengesa machira anogona kukurumidza kugadzirisa ku "nearshoring" uye "kusiyana-siyana": mabhizinesi eUS anogona kuendesa maodha kuMexico neCanada (achinakidzwa nemitengo yemitengo pasi peNorth American Free Trade Agreement), mabhizinesi eEurope anogona kuwedzera kutenga kubva kuTurkey neMorocco, ukuwo mabhizinesi eChinese machira emuchina, achivimba nehurongwa hwavo hwekotoni. kugadzirwa kwechigadzirwa), inogona kutora mamwe epakati-kusvika-yepamusoro-yekupedzisira maodha (akadai semachira anoshanda uye eco-ushamwari zvipfeko) anotamiswa kubva kuBangladesh neSri Lanka. Zvisinei, iyi nzira yekugadzirisa inotora nguva (inofungidzirwa 1-2 makore) uye ichaperekedzwa nekuwedzera kwemitengo yekuvakazve cheni, zvichiita kuti zviome kudzikisa zvizere mhirizhonga yeindasitiri iripo munguva pfupi.
Kune maChinese machira ekunze emabhizinesi ekutengeserana ekunze, kutenderera uku kwemhirizhonga yemitero kunounza matambudziko ese (anoda kutarisana nekushomeka kwepasirese kudiwa uye makwikwi ekutengesa ketani) nemikana yakavanzwa. Vanogona kusimbisa kushandira pamwe nemafekitori emuno muBangladesh neSri Lanka (sekupa rutsigiro rwehunyanzvi uye kugadzira pamwe chete) kudzivirira zvipingamupinyi zvemitero zveUS. Panguva imwecheteyo, vanogona kuwedzera kuedza kuongorora misika iri kusimukira yakaita seSoutheast Asia neAfrica, vachidzikisa kutsamira pamusika mumwe muEurope neUS, nekudaro vachiwana chinzvimbo chakanyanya kunaka mukuvakazve kwepasi rose rekutengesa cheni.
Nguva yekutumira: Aug-16-2025