Munguva pfupi yapfuura, misika yepasi rose yekotoni yekutengeserana yaona shanduko dzakakura dzechimiro. Zvinoenderana nemvumo yekutarisisa data kubva kuChina Cotton Net, kubhuka kweUS Pima donje ine yaNyamavhuvhu 2025 yekutumira hurongwa yave kuramba ichiwedzera, ichiva imwe yeinonyanya kutariswa muchikamu chazvino chekutengesa machira. Panyaya yezvakananga zvekutengeserana, mabhukisho aripo akanyanya kuUS Pima donje re11-2 uye 21-2 mamakisi. Aya magiredhi maviri ePima donje, anoratidzwa nehurefu hwefiber kureba (kazhinji 35-45 mm), kusimba kwepamusoro, yunifomu yakatsetseka, kuita kwakanakisa kwekudhaya, uye machira anopenya, ndiwo musimboti wemidziyo yemachira epamusoro-soro (akadai semachira ehembe akawandisa uye akareba, machira epamba eumbozha, uye zvipfeko zvemitambo zvemhando yepamusoro). Mafambiro avo emusika anoratidza zvakananga shanduko yezvinodiwa mune yepasi rose yepamusoro-yekupedzisira machira indasitiri cheni.
Kukura kwekubooker kweUS Pima donje kunofambiswa nekubatanidzwa kwemitemo yakawanda uye kudiwa kwemusika zvinhu, izvo zvinogona kuongororwa kubva pamativi matatu:
I. Kuwedzerwa kweChina-US Tariff Moratorium: Kuderedza Mutengo Wekutengeserana uye Kuvhura Kudiwa Kwekutenga
Kare, kusavimbika kwaivapo mumatongerwo emitero yezvigadzirwa zvemachira uye zvigadzirwa pakati peChina neUnited States. Nekuda kwekunetsekana nekukwira kwemitengo yemitero, mamwe makambani ekuChina emachira edonje akatora zano re "diki-odha, pfupi-odha" yekutenga US Pima donje, aine manzwiro akasimba ekumirira-uye-kuona. Kuwedzerwa kwemazuva makumi mapfumbamwe kweChina-US tariff kumisa kunoreva kuti panguva ino, mabhizinesi eChinese anogona kuramba achinakidzwa nemitengo yepakutanga kana achiunza US Pima donje, pasina kutakura imwe mari yemitero, achidzikisa zvakananga njodzi dzemari dzekutenga zvinhu.
Kubva pamaonero eindasitiri cheni yekufambisa logic, kuwedzera kweiyo tariff motorium inopa mabhizinesi nehwindo rekutenga rakajeka: Kune rimwe divi, mabhizinesi emachira edonje anogona kuvharira maPima machira edonje ehurongwa hwekutumira hwaNyamavhuvhu kuchengetedza yakakwira-yekupedzisira zvigadzirwa zvisati zvaitika, kudzivirira inogona kuwedzera mutengo wakakonzerwa nekuchinja kunotevera kwemitemo yemitero. Nekune rimwe divi, mabhizinesi ekutengesa akawedzerawo mabasa avo ekubhurocha, kuhodha zvinhu kuburikidza nekutenga kwakawanda kuti ape yakagadzika mbichana mbichana yezvigayo zvemachira ezasi nemhando dzembatya. Izvi zvinoumba simba rakapetwa rekutenga zvinhu re "mabhizinesi anoramba achiunganidza + vatengesi vachichengeta zvinhu," vachikurudzira zvakananga kukwira kwekuchengetwa kwehurongwa hwekutumira kwaNyamavhuvhu.
II. Yakanyanya Kuiswa YeEuropean neAmerican Kisimusi Orders: Inosimudzira Kudiwa Kwepamusoro-End Micheka uye Kutyaira Raw Material Kutenga.
Nyamavhuvhu kusvika Gumiguru gore rega rega ndiyo nguva yepamusoro yekuisa maodha eKisimusi mumisika yeEurope neAmerica. Munguva yekutenderera uku, mabhureki embatya dzekuEurope neAmerica nevatengesi vanofanirwa kupedzisa kutenga, kugadzira, uye kutakura zvigadzirwa zvemwaka weKisimusi (senge machira epamusoro-soro, madhirezi ezororo, uye machira epamba echipo), zvichitungamira mukukwira kwemwaka mukudiwa kwezvigadzirwa zvemachira ekupedzisira.
Kunyanya, vatengi vekuEurope neAmerica vane zvakanyanya zvemhando yepamusoro zvinodiwa zvekupfeka zveKisimusi zvichienzaniswa nezvigadzirwa zvemazuva ese. Kunyanya mumusika wepakati-kusvika-yepamusoro-soro, kudiwa kwemicheka yakagadzirwa kubva kuPima cotton yakasimba. Semuyenzaniso, rudzi rwembatya dzeumbozha dzekuEurope dzinoda kuti machira ehembe dzayo dzeKisimusi dzine mashopu mashoma arukwe neUS Pima donje kuti awedzere kunaka kwezvigadzirwa. Mabhureki emhando yepamusoro-soro emumba muUnited States anowedzerawo kutenga kwavo Pima donje dzekurara panguva ino kuzadzisa kudiwa kwekushandisa kwezororo. Kuiswa kwemaodha akadai kunofambisa zvakananga kudiwa kwezvigayo zvemachira ezasi eshinda-yepamusoro-soro, uye US Pima donje, sechinhu chakakosha cheshinda yepamusoro-soro, inova sarudzo yekutanga kumabhizinesi, nekudaro ichikurudzira kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwekubhurocha kweiyo Nyamavhuvhu chirongwa chekutumira (hurongwa hwekutumira hunoenderana nehurongwa hwekugadzira odha: muNyamavhuvhu, kugadzira dhayi kubva munaGunyana. Gumiguru, uye zvigadzirwa zvembatya zvapera zvinogona kuendeswa Mbudzi asati asvika kuti ave nechokwadi chekuti ari pamasherufu Kisimusi isati yasvika).
III. Kuwedzera Zvinotarisirwa zve "Rush Exports" muChina Cotton Textile Indasitiri: Kurongeka Pamberi Kubata Musika Mugove.
Zvichienderana nemamiriro azvino emusika, indasitiri inowanzotarisira kuti indasitiri yedonje yedonje uye indasitiri yembatya ichaunza denderedzwa idzva re "rush export" peak inotungamirwa nezvakawanda izvi zvakanaka. Kubva munhoroondo yenhoroondo, nekuda kwegwaro rakafanana uye kudiwa kuri pamusoro munguva imwe cheteyo ya2024, kukosha kwekutengesa kunze kwezvigadzirwa zvemachira epamusoro-soro uye zvipfeko zvekuChina zvakawedzera ne12% gore-pagore, nehuwandu hwemachira eUS Pima donje huchikwira kusvika pa18%. Muhafu yekutanga ya2025, machira eChina uye zvipfeko kunze kwenyika zvakatowana kukura kwe 0.8% gore-pagore, zvichiratidza kusimba kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye nekuisa hwaro hwe "kukurumidza kuendesa kunze kwenyika" muhafu yechipiri yegore.
Tichipesana nemamiriro ekunze e “kumhanyisa kutumira kunze kwenyika” tarisiro, mabhizinesi eChinese donje machira atora zano rinoshanda: Kune rimwe divi, mabhizinesi anovimbisa kufambira mberi kwekugadzirwa kwemachira epamusoro nekukiya muUS Pima machira edonje ehurongwa hwekutumira Nyamavhuvhu pamberi, kudzivirira kunonoka kuendesa nekuda kwekushomeka kwezvinhu. Kunyanya, vatengi veEurope neAmerica vane zvinodiwa zvakasimba pamarongwa ekutumira maodha; kunonoka kunokonzerwa nekusakwana kwezvinhu zvinogadzirwa zvinogona kukonzeresa kukuvadzwa kwakabviswa kana kudzima odha. Nekune rimwe divi, mamwe mabhizinesi akawedzerawo vhoriyamu yekutenga donje yePima kuti awedzere huwandu hwekugadzira machira emhando yepamusoro, kuitira kuti aite mamwe maodha eKisimusi yekuEurope neAmerica uye kutora chikamu chemusika. Semuyenzaniso, chigayo chejira muZhejiang nguva pfupi yadarika chakawedzera vhoriyamu yekutengwa kwedonje reUS Pima ne30%, chakanangana nekugadzira machira ehembe epamusoro anotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuEurope, uye anotarisirwa kuwedzera mamiriyoni maviri emamita emachira ekuraira kunze kwenyika.
Tichitarisa kumberi kune inotevera misika yemusika, kudiwa kweUS Pima donje kucharamba kuri padanho repamusoro munguva pfupi (Nyamavhuvhu kusvika Gumiguru): Kune rumwe rutivi, kudiwa kwekutenga panguva yekumisikidzwa kwemitengo kucharamba kuchiburitswa, uye kubhukidza kwehurongwa hwekutumira kwaSeptember kunogona kuwedzera. Nekune rumwe rutivi, kutenderera kwekugadzirwa kweEuropean and American Christmas orders kuchaenderera mberi kusvika Gumiguru, saka kudiwa kwekutenga kwePima donje hakuzodzike nekukurumidza. Zvakadaro, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti kana paine shanduko dzinozotevera mumitemo yemitero yeChina-US kana kana kudiwa kweKisimusi yekuEurope nekuAmerica kukatadza kuita zvinotarisirwa, zvinogona kuve nekukanganisa kudiwa kwemusika kweUS Pima donje. Mabhizinesi eChinese donje machira achiri kuda kunyatso tarisisa mutemo uye misika dynamics, kudzora zvine musoro zvigadzirwa zvezvinhu, uye kuenzanisa mutengo wekutenga uye njodzi dzemusika.
Pamusoro pezvo, kukura kwekuchengeterwa kweUS Pima donje kunoratidzawo maitiro akakosha mune yepasi rose machira indasitiri cheni: pakatarisana nekumashure kwekusimudzira kushandiswa, kusimba kwekusimba kwezvinhu zvepamusoro zvemachira awhizha kwakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura izvo zvepakati-kusvika-pasi-yekupedzisira-yekupedzisira. Kana maChina mabhizinesi emachira edonje achikwanisa kuenderera mberi nekugonesa kutenga kwavo uye kushandisa masimba emhando yepamusoro-yekupedzisira zviwanikwa, vanozonyanya kubatsira mukusimudzira kukwikwidza kwavo mumusika wepasi rose wemicheka wepamusoro uye nekuisa hwaro hwekuwedzera misika yepamusoro-soro seEurope, America, Japan, uye South Korea mune ramangwana.
Nguva yekutumira: Aug-25-2025