Kuvhiringika kwekupokana kwezvematongerwo enyika pamusika wekutengesa machira kwakafanana nekuisa "chinhu chinodzivisa" mutsinga dzeropa dzekutengesa kwepasirese, uye kukanganisa kwayo kunopinda mukati mezviyero zvakawanda sekufambisa, mutengo, kuenderana nenguva, uye mashandiro emakambani.
1. "Kutyoka nekutsauka" kwenzira dzekufambisa: Tichitarisa mabatiro akaita nzira kubva kudambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku.
Kutengeserana kwemachira kunotsamira zvakanyanya pakufambisa kwemugungwa, kunyanya nzira dzakakosha dzinobatanidza Asia, Europe, neAfrica. Tichitora dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku semuenzaniso, se "huro" yekutakura kwepasi rose, Gungwa Dzvuku neSuez Canal inotakura inosvika 12% yehuwandu hwekutakura kwekutengesa kwepasirese, uye zvakare ndiyo nzira huru dzekutengesa machira eAsia kuEurope neAfrica. Mamiriro ezvinhu akaoma muGungwa Dzvuku akakonzerwa nekuwedzera kwekunetsana pakati peRussia neUkraine uye kuwedzera kwegakava pakati peRebhanoni neIsrael zvakakonzera zvakananga kukwira kwenjodzi yekurwiswa kwengarava dzevatengesi. Kubva 2024, zvinopfuura 30 ngarava dzevatengesi muGungwa Dzvuku dzakarwiswa nema drones kana makomba. Kuti vadzivise njodzi, hofori dzakawanda dzepasi rose (dzakadai seMaersk neMediterranean Shipping) dzakazivisa kumiswa kwenzira yeGungwa Dzvuku uye dzakasarudza kutenderera kuCape of Good Hope muAfrica.
Mhedzisiro yeiyi "kutsauka" pakutengesa machira inokurumidza: rwendo rwekutanga kubva kuChina Yangtze River Delta uye Pearl River Delta zviteshi kuenda kuEuropean Port yeRotterdam kuburikidza neSuez Canal kwakatora mazuva makumi matatu, asi mushure mekutenderera Cape yeGood Hope, rwendo rwakawedzerwa kusvika mazuva 45-50, ichiwedzera nguva yekufambisa ingangoita 50%. Kune machira ane simba remwaka (senge donje rakareruka uye rineni muzhizha uye inodziya yakarukwa machira muchando), kunonoka nguva kunogona kupotsa zvakananga mwaka wepamusoro wekutengesa - semuenzaniso, mabhureki eEuropean zvipfeko pakutanga akaronga kugamuchira machira eAsia uye anotanga kugadzirwa muna Zvita 2024 mukugadzirira zvigadzirwa zvitsva muchirimo 2025. discounts.
2. Kukwira kwemitengo: kudzvinyirirwa kweketani kubva pakutakura kuenda kune yekutenga
Mhedzisiro yakananga yekugadziriswa kwenzira ndeyekukwira kwemitengo yekufambisa. Muna Zvita 2024, mutengo wekutakura mugaba remamita makumi mana kubva kuChina kuenda kuEurope wakakwira kubva pamadhora chiuru nemazana mashanu dambudziko reGungwa Dzvuku risati rasvika kusvika pamadhora zviuru zvina nemazana mashanu, kuwedzera kwe200%; panguva imwe cheteyo, rwendo rwakawedzerwa rwakakonzerwa nekutsauka kwakakonzera kudzikira kwekufamba kwengarava, uye kushomeka kwezvikepe zvepasi rose kwakawedzera kukwidza mitengo yekutakura zvinhu. Nezvekutengesa machira, iyo ine yakaderera purofiti margin (yepakati purofiti muganho ingangoita 5% -8%), kuwedzera kwemitengo yekutakura kwakanyatso kudzvanya purofiti - kambani inotumira kunze machira muShaoxing, Zhejiang, yakaverengera kuti mutengo wekutakura webhechi remachira ekotoni akatumirwa kuGermany muna Ndira 2025, akawedzera ne20020 2020 yu nguva, ichienzaniswa ne20020 yu. yakaenzana ne60% yepurofiti yehurongwa.
Pamusoro pekutakura zvinhu zvakananga, mitengo isina kunanga yakakwirawo panguva imwe chete. Kuti zvigadzirise kunonoka kwekufambisa, makambani emachira anofanirwa kugadzirira pachine nguva, zvichikonzera kuseri kwezvivakwa: muchikamu chechina cha2024, mazuva ekutengesa kwemachira mumasumbu makuru emachira muChina achawedzerwa kubva pamazuva makumi matatu nemashanu kusvika kumazuva makumi mashanu nemaviri, uye mutengo wezvinhu (semubhadharo wekuchengetedza uye mubereko pakubata kukuru) uchawedzera ne15%. Mukuwedzera, mamwe machira (akadai sepamusoro-ekupedzisira sirika uye machira akatambanudzwa) ane zvinodiwa zvakasimba panzvimbo yekuchengetedza. Kutora kwenguva refu kunogona kukonzera kushanduka kwejira uye kuderedzwa kwe elasticity, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera njodzi yekurasikirwa.
3. Supply cheni yekuvhiringidza njodzi: "butterfly effect" kubva kune zvigadzirwa kusvika pakugadzirwa
Geopolitical kusawirirana kunogona kukonzera kukanganisa kweketani kumusoro uye kuzasi kweiyo indasitiri yemachira. Semuenzaniso, Europe inzvimbo yakakosha yekugadzira yemakemikari fiber raw materials (senge polyester nenylon). Kupokana pakati peRussia neUkraine kwakonzera kushanduka kwemitengo yemagetsi eEurope, uye mamwe makemikari emiti akadzikisa kana kumisa kugadzirwa. Muna 2024, kuburitswa kwepolyester staple fibers muEurope kuchadonha ne12% gore-pa-gore, zvichikwidza mutengo wepasi rose kemikari fiber raw materials, izvo zvinozokanganisa mutengo wemakambani ekugadzira machira anovimba nechinhu ichi mbishi.
Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo "multi-link kubatana" maitiro ekutengesa machira anoita kuti zvive zvakanyanya kudiwa pakugadzikana kweketani yekugovera. Chidimbu chejira redonje chakadhindwa chinotumirwa kuUnited States chingada kuunza shinda yedonje kubva kuIndia, dhayi uye kudhindwa kuChina, uye yozogadziriswa kuita jira kuSoutheast Asia, uye pakupedzisira kutakurwa kuburikidza nenzira yeGungwa Dzvuku. Kana chinongedzo chikavharwa nekunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika (sekuendeswa kunze kwenyika kweshinda yedonje yeIndia kunorambidzwa nekuda kwemhirizhonga yezvematongerwo enyika), cheni yese yekugadzira inodzika. Muna 2024, kurambidzwa kunze kwenyika shinda yedonje mune dzimwe nyika dzeIndia kwakaita kuti makambani mazhinji ekuChina anodhinda nekudhaya amise kugadzirwa nekuda kwekushomeka kwezvinhu, uye mwero wekunonoka kuendesa maodha wakapfuura makumi matatu%. Nekuda kweizvozvo, vamwe vatengi vekunze vakatendeukira kune mamwe vatengesi vakaita seBangladesh neVietnam, zvichikonzera kurasikirwa kwevatengi kwenguva refu.
4. Corporate Strategy Adjustment: Kubva paPassive Response kune Active Reconstruction
Takatarisana nekukanganiswa kweketani yekugovera kunokonzerwa negeopolitics, makambani ekutengesa machira anomanikidzwa kugadzirisa maitiro avo:
Nzira dzekufambisa dzakasiyana-siyana: Mamwe makambani anowedzera chikamu cheChina-Europe zvitima uye zvekufambisa nendege. Semuenzaniso, nhamba yeChina-Europe zvitima zvemachira emucheka kubva kuChina kuenda kuEurope muna 2024 ichawedzera ne40% gore negore, asi mari yekufambisa njanji inopeta katatu iyo yekutakura kwegungwa, iyo inongoshanda kune yakakwirira-yakawedzerwa machira (akadai sesilika uye inoshanda machira emitambo);
Localized procurement: Kuwedzera mari mudzimba mbishi rekushandisa cheni, sekuwedzera mwero wekushandiswa kwezvinhu zvemuno zvakaita seXinjiang refu-staple donje neSichuan bamboo fiber, uye kuderedza kutsamira pazvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika;
Kurongeka kwematura ekumhiri kwemakungwa: Gadzira matura emberi muSoutheast Asia neEurope, chengetedza machira anowanzo shandiswa pamberi, uye kupfupisa kutenderera kutenderera - Pakutanga kwa2025, kambani yemachira muZhejiang yakachengeta mamiriyoni maviri emayadhi emucheka wekotoni munzvimbo yayo yekuchengetera mhiri kwemakungwa muVietnam, iyo inogona kukurumidza kupindura kune kukurumidza kuraira kwembatya dzeAsia kubva kuSouth Asia.
Kazhinji, kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakakanganisa zvakanyanya kugadzikana kwekutengesa machira nekukanganisa nzira dzekufambisa, kukwidza mitengo, uye kutyora cheni dzekugovera. Kune vemabhizinesi, izvi zvese zvinonetsa uye simba rekuti indasitiri ikurumidze kushandura kwayo kuenda ku "kushanduka, kugarisana, uye kusiyanisa" kuitira kuti ikwanise kumira nekusagadzikana kwepasirese.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-26-2025