Musi waNyamavhuvhu 12, China neUnited States dzakazivisa pamwe chete gadziriso yenguva pfupi yekutengeserana: 24% ye34% yemitero yakatemerwa muna Kubvumbi gore rino ichamiswa kwemazuva makumi mapfumbamwe, nepo gumi muzana yemitero yekuwedzera icharamba iripo. Kuunzwa kwegwaro iri kwakakurumidza kupinza “booster shot” muchikamu cheChina chekutengesa micheka, asi zvakare chinovanza matambudziko kubva kumakwikwi enguva refu.
Nezvekukanganisa kwenguva pfupi, mhedzisiro yekuitwa kwegwaro iri kwakakosha. Kune mabhizinesi eChina ekugadzira machira uye zvipfeko kunze kwenyika anovimba nemusika weUS, kumiswa kwemutero we24% kunoderedza zvakananga mutengo wekutengesa kunze. Tichitora batch yemachira emachira anokosha $1 miriyoni semuenzaniso, imwezve $340,000 mumitero yaidiwa kare; mushure mekugadzirisa mutemo, chete $100,000 inoda kubhadharwa, inomiririra kuderedzwa kwemutengo we70%. Shanduko iyi yakakurumidza kuendeswa kumusika: pazuva rakaziviswa mutemo, mabhizinesi mumasumbu eindasitiri yemachira akadai saShaoxing muZhejiang neDongguan muGuangdong akatambira maodha nekukurumidza kubva kune vatengi veUS. Munhu anoona nezvebhizimusi rekunze reZhejiang rinoshanda nembatya dzedonje akaburitsa pachena kuti vakatambira maodha matatu ekukwana zviuru zvishanu zvembatya dzematsutso nechando masikati aNyamavhuvhu 5,000, vatengi vachitaura pachena kuti "nekuda kwekudzikiswa kwemitengo, vanotarisira kuvharira muripo pachine nguva." Bhizinesi remachira muGuangdong rakawanawo kudzoserwa zvinodiwa kubva kune vatengesi vekuUS, zvinosanganisira zvikamu zvakaita sedenim uye machira akarukwa, nemavhoriyamu ekurongeka achikwira ne30% zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana mumakore apfuura.
Seri kweiyi mhedzisiro yenguva pfupi yakanaka kune kudiwa kwekukurumidzira kwemusika kugadzikana mumamiriro ekutengeserana. Mumwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura, yakakanganiswa nemutero wepamusoro we34%, mabhizinesi ekugadzira machira eChina anotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUS anga achimanikidzwa. Vamwe vatengi veUS, kuti vadzivise mitengo, vakatendeukira kukutenga kubva kunyika dzine mitengo yakaderera seVietnam neBangladesh, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwemwedzi-pa-mwedzi mukukura kwekutengesa kunze kweChina machira kuUS muchikamu chechipiri. Kumiswa kwemitero panguva ino kwakaenzana nekupa mabhizinesi nemwedzi mitatu "buffer nguva," iyo isingangobatsiri kugaya zvinhu zviripo uye kudzikamisa rhythms yekugadzira asi zvakare inopa nzvimbo yemabhizinesi pamativi ese kuti ataurezve mitengo uye kusaina maodha matsva.
Zvakadaro, chimiro chechinguvana chegwaro iri chakaisawo hwaro hwekusava nechokwadi kwenguva refu. Iyo 90-yemazuva ekumisa nguva haisi kubviswa zvachose kwemitero, uye kuti ichawedzerwa mushure mekupera uye huwandu hwekugadzirisa hunoenderana nekufambira mberi kwenhaurirano dzinotevera dzeChina-US. Iyi "window yenguva" mhedzisiro inogona kutungamirira kumusika wenguva pfupi maitiro: Vatengi veUS vanogona kuisa maodha zvakanyanya mukati memazuva makumi mapfumbamwe, nepo mabhizinesi eChinese achifanirwa kungwarira nezve njodzi ye "kuodha overdraft" - kana mutero ukadzoserwa mushure mekunge mutemo wapera, mirairo inotevera inogona kudonha.
Chinonyanya kucherechedzwa ndechekuti mamiriro emakwikwi ezvigadzirwa zvemachira zveChina mumusika wepasi rose achinja zvikuru. Mashoko achangoburwa kubva muna Ndira kusvika muna Chivabvu gore rino anoratidza kuti chikamu cheChina chemusika wembatya wekuAmerica wadzikira kusvika pa17.2%, inova kekutanga kubva pakatanga nhamba kuti kudarika neVietnam (17.5%). Vietnam, ichivimba nemitengo yakaderera yevashandi, mabhenefiti kubva kune zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana mahara nematunhu akaita seEU, uye chain yayo iri kukurumidza kuwedzera yeindasitiri yemachira mumakore achangopfuura, iri kutsausa maodha ayo pakutanga aive eChina. Pamusoro pezvo, nyika dzakaita seBangladesh neIndia dziri kusimudzirawo kubata kwavo kuburikidza nemitengo yavanoda uye rutsigiro rwemitemo yemaindasitiri.
Naizvozvo, uku kugadziridzwa kwenguva pfupi kwemitengo yeChina-US zvese "mukana wekufema" uye "chiyeuchidzo cheshanduko" kumabhizinesi eChina ekutengesa machira ekunze. Ndichiri kutora migove yemirairo yenguva pfupi, mabhizinesi anofanirwa kukurumidza kusimudzira kusvika kumachira ekupedzisira, machira, uye kugadzirwa kwegirinhi kuti vatarisane nekumanikidzwa kwenguva refu kwemakwikwi epasirese uye kusagadzikana kwemitemo yekutengeserana.
Nguva yekutumira: Aug-14-2025