Ihungabana ry’amakimbirane ya politiki ku itangwa ry’ubucuruzi bw’imyenda ni nko gushyira “inzitizi” mu mitsi y’amaraso yoroheje y’ubucuruzi bw’isi yose, kandi ingaruka zayo zinjira mu bice byinshi nko gutwara abantu, ibiciro, igihe, ndetse n’ibikorwa by’amasosiyete.
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Ubucuruzi bw'imyenda bushingiye cyane ku bwikorezi bwo mu nyanja, cyane cyane inzira z'ingenzi zihuza Aziya, Uburayi, na Afurika. Dufashe nk'ikibazo cyo mu nyanja Itukura, nk '“umuhogo” wo gutwara abantu ku isi, Inyanja Itukura n'Umuyoboro wa Suez bitwara hafi 12% by'ubwikorezi bwo ku isi ku isi, kandi ni na yo nzira nyamukuru yo kohereza imyenda muri Aziya mu Burayi no muri Afurika. Ibintu byari byifashe nabi mu nyanja Itukura byatewe no kwiyongera kw’amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine ndetse no gukaza umurego mu ntambara hagati ya Libani na Isiraheli byatumye ubwiyongere bw’ubwato bw’abacuruzi buterwa. Kuva mu 2024, amato arenga 30 y'abacuruzi mu nyanja Itukura yibasiwe na drone cyangwa misile. Mu rwego rwo kwirinda ingaruka, ibihangange byinshi byoherezwa mu mahanga (nka Maersk na Mediterranean Shipping) byatangaje ko byahagaritswe inzira y’inyanja Itukura maze bahitamo kuzenguruka umupaka w’ibyiringiro muri Afurika.
Ingaruka z'uru “rugendo” ku bucuruzi bw'imyenda zirahita: urugendo rwa mbere ruva mu Bushinwa bwa Yangtze River Delta na Pearl River Delta rwerekeza ku cyambu cy’i Burayi cya Rotterdam unyuze ku muyoboro wa Suez byatwaye iminsi igera kuri 30, ariko nyuma yo kuzenguruka ikirwa cya Byiringiro, urugendo rwongerewe iminsi 45-50, byongera igihe cyo gutwara abantu hafi 50%. Ku myenda ifite ibihe bikomeye (nk'ipamba yoroheje n'igitambara mu cyi hamwe n'ibitambara bishyushye bikozwe mu gihe cy'itumba), gutinda birashobora guhita bibura igihe cyo kugurisha - urugero, ibirango by'imyenda yo mu Burayi byateganyaga kwakira imyenda yo muri Aziya no gutangira kubyaza umusaruro mu Kuboza 2024 mu rwego rwo gutegura ibicuruzwa bishya mu mpeshyi 2025.
2. Ibiciro bizamuka: umuvuduko wumunyururu uva mumizigo kugeza kubarura
Ingaruka zitaziguye zo guhindura inzira ni izamuka ryibiciro byubwikorezi. Ukuboza 2024, igipimo cy’imizigo cya kontineri ya metero 40 kiva mu Bushinwa kijya mu Burayi cyazamutse kiva ku madolari 1.500 mbere y’ikibazo cy’inyanja Itukura kigera ku madorari arenga 4.500, kiyongeraho 200%; icyarimwe, intera y'urugendo rwiyongereye yatewe no kuzenguruka byatumye igabanuka ry'ubwato, kandi ubushobozi buke ku isi bwarushijeho kuzamura ibiciro by'imizigo. Ku bucuruzi bw'imyenda, bufite inyungu nkeya (impuzandengo y'inyungu igera kuri 5% -8%), kwiyongera kw'ibiciro by'imizigo byagabanije mu buryo butaziguye inyungu - isosiyete yohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga i Shaoxing, muri Zhejiang, yabaze ko igiciro cy'imizigo cy'igitambara cy'ipamba cyoherejwe mu Budage muri Mutarama 2025 cyiyongereyeho 280.000 by'amafaranga ugereranije n'igihe kimwe cyo mu 2024, bihwanye na 60%.
Usibye gutwara ibicuruzwa bitaziguye, ibiciro bitaziguye nabyo byazamutse icyarimwe. Kugirango duhangane n’ubukererwe bw’ubwikorezi, amasosiyete y’imyenda agomba kwitegura hakiri kare, bikavamo ibirarane by’ibarura: mu gihembwe cya kane cy’umwaka wa 2024, iminsi yo kugurisha imyenda y’imyenda iri mu matsinda akomeye y’imyenda mu Bushinwa izongerwa kuva ku minsi 35 ikagera ku minsi 52, kandi amafaranga yo kubara (nk'amafaranga yo kubika n'inyungu ku mwuga w'ishoramari) aziyongera hafi 15%. Byongeye kandi, imyenda imwe n'imwe (nk'ubudodo bwo mu rwego rwo hejuru hamwe n'imyenda irambuye) ifite ibisabwa bikomeye kububiko. Ibarura ryigihe kirekire rishobora gutera ibara ryimyenda no kugabanuka kwa elastique, bikarushaho kongera ibyago byo gutakaza.
3. Gutanga ibyago byo guhungabanya umutekano: "ingaruka zinyugunyugu" kuva mubikoresho fatizo kugeza kumusaruro
Amakimbirane ya geopolitike arashobora kandi gutera imvururu mu rujya n'uruza rw'uruganda rukora imyenda. Kurugero, Uburayi nigikorwa cyingenzi cyo kubyaza umusaruro ibikoresho bya fibre fibre (nka polyester na nylon). Amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine yateje ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’ingufu z’i Burayi, kandi inganda zimwe na zimwe z’imiti zagabanije cyangwa zihagarika umusaruro. Mu 2024, umusaruro wa fibre polyester staple fibre uzagabanukaho 12% umwaka ushize, bigatuma igiciro cy’ibikoresho fatizo bya fibre fibre chimique ku isi, ari nacyo kigira ingaruka ku giciro cy’amasosiyete akora imyenda ishingiye kuri ibi bikoresho fatizo.
Muri icyo gihe, ibiranga "ubufatanye-bwinshi" buranga ubucuruzi bwimyenda bituma bisaba cyane kumurongo wogutanga isoko. Igice cy'igitambaro cyacapishijwe cyoherezwa muri Amerika gishobora gukenera gutumiza mu budodo bw'ipamba mu Buhinde, gusiga irangi no gucapa mu Bushinwa, hanyuma bigatunganyirizwa mu mwenda mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya, hanyuma bikanyuzwa mu nzira y'inyanja Itukura. Niba ihuriro ryahagaritswe n’amakimbirane ya geopolitike (nko kohereza ibicuruzwa mu ipamba ry’Ubuhinde birabujijwe kubera imvururu za politiki), urwego rwose rw’ibicuruzwa ruzahagarara. Mu 2024, guhagarika ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu ipamba mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe byo mu Buhinde byatumye amasosiyete menshi yo gucapa no gusiga amarangi mu Bushinwa ahagarika umusaruro kubera ikibazo cy’ibikoresho fatizo, kandi igipimo cyo gutinda ku bicuruzwa cyarenze 30%. Kubera iyo mpamvu, abakiriya bamwe bo mumahanga bahindukiriye abatanga isoko nka Bangladesh na Vietnam, bigatuma abakiriya batakaza igihe kirekire.
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Mu guhangana n’imivurungano itangwa na geopolitike, amasosiyete acuruza imyenda ahatirwa guhindura ingamba:
Uburyo butandukanye bwo gutwara abantu: Ibigo bimwe byongera igipimo cya gari ya moshi y'Ubushinwa n'Uburayi hamwe no gutwara abantu n'ibintu. Kurugero, umubare wa gari ya moshi y'Ubushinwa-Uburayi ku myenda y’imyenda iva mu Bushinwa ikagera mu Burayi mu 2024 iziyongera ku gipimo cya 40% umwaka ushize, ariko ikiguzi cyo gutwara gari ya moshi cyikubye inshuro eshatu ubwikorezi bwo mu nyanja, bukoreshwa gusa ku myenda yongerewe agaciro (nk'imyenda ya siporo n'imikorere ya siporo ikora);
Amasoko y’ibanze: Kongera ishoramari mu rwego rwo gutanga ibikoresho by’imbere mu gihugu, nko kongera igipimo cy’imikoreshereze y’ibikoresho fatizo by’ibanze nka Shitingi ndende y’ipamba ndende na fibre y’imigano ya Sichuan, no kugabanya gushingira ku bikoresho fatizo bitumizwa mu mahanga;
Imiterere yububiko bw’amahanga: Shiraho ububiko bw’imbere mu majyepfo y’iburasirazuba bwa Aziya n’Uburayi, ubike ubwoko bw’imyenda ikoreshwa mbere, kandi bigabanya igihe cyo kugemura - Mu ntangiriro za 2025, uruganda rukora imyenda muri Zhejiang rwabitse miliyoni 2 y’imyenda y’ipamba mu bubiko bwarwo bwo hanze muri Vietnam, rushobora guhita rwihutira gutumiza ibicuruzwa byihutirwa biva mu nganda z’imyenda yo muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo.
Muri rusange, amakimbirane ya politiki yagize ingaruka zikomeye ku ihungabana ry’ubucuruzi bw’imyenda mu guhagarika inzira z’ubwikorezi, kuzamura ibiciro, no guca iminyururu. Ku mishinga, iyi ni ingorabahizi n'imbaraga ku nganda kwihutisha ihinduka ryayo “guhinduka, kwimenyekanisha, no gutandukana” hagamijwe guhangana n'ingaruka ziterwa n'ikibazo kidashidikanywaho ku isi.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-26-2025