Posachedwapa, boma la US likupitiriza kukweza ndondomeko yake ya "kubwezera" ndondomeko, kuphatikizapo Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka pamndandanda wa zilango ndikuika mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya 37% ndi 44% motsatira. Kusunthaku sikunangowonjezera "chiwopsezo" ku machitidwe azachuma a mayiko awiriwa, omwe amadalira kwambiri zovala zogulitsa kunja, komanso adayambitsanso kugwirizana kwazitsulo padziko lonse lapansi. Makampani opanga nsalu ndi zovala aku US akhudzidwanso ndi zovuta ziwiri zakukwera kwamitengo komanso kusokonekera kwazinthu zogulitsira.
I. Bangladesh: Zogulitsa Zogulitsa Zakunja Zataya $3.3 Biliyoni, Ntchito Miliyoni Ili Pangozi
Monga dziko lachiwiri lalikulu padziko lonse la malonda ogulitsa zovala kunja, malonda a nsalu ndi zovala ndiwo "njira yopezera chuma" ku Bangladesh. Makampaniwa amathandizira 11% ya GDP yonse ya dziko, 84% ya kuchuluka kwake komwe amatumiza kunja, ndipo amayendetsa mwachindunji ntchito ya anthu opitilira 4 miliyoni (80% mwa omwe ndi akazi ogwira ntchito). Zimathandiziranso mosalunjika za moyo wa anthu opitilira 15 miliyoni omwe ali m'mafakitale akumtunda ndi kumunsi kwa mtsinje. United States ndi msika wachiwiri waukulu ku Bangladesh pambuyo pa European Union. Mu 2023, nsalu ndi zovala za Bangladesh ku US zidafika $ 6.4 biliyoni, zomwe zidapitilira 95% yazogulitsa zonse ku US, zomwe zimatengera zinthu zomwe zikuyenda mwachangu monga T-shirts, jeans, malaya, ndikugwira ntchito ngati gwero lazinthu zogulitsira kwa ogulitsa aku US ndi Target.
Kuyika kwa US kwa msonkho wa 37% pazinthu za Bangladeshi nthawi ino kumatanthauza kuti T-sheti ya thonje yochokera ku Bangladesh, yomwe poyamba inali ndi mtengo wa $ 10 ndi mtengo wogulitsa kunja wa $ 15, idzayenera kulipira $ 5.55 yowonjezera pamitengo ikalowa mumsika wa US, kukankhira mtengo wonse mpaka $ 20.55 mwachindunji. Kwa makampani opanga nsalu ku Bangladesh, omwe amadalira "mitengo yotsika komanso phindu laling'ono" monga mwayi wake wampikisano, mitengo yamitengo iyi yapitilira phindu lamakampani a 5% -8%. Malinga ndi kuyerekezera kwa Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), mitengo ikayamba kugwira ntchito, zogulitsa nsalu za dzikolo kupita ku US zidzatsika kuchokera pa $ 6.4 biliyoni pachaka kufika pafupifupi $ 3.1 biliyoni, ndikuwonongeka kwapachaka mpaka $ 3.3 biliyoni - zofanana ndi kulanda msika wadziko lonse wa nsalu ku US pafupifupi theka.
Choyipa kwambiri, kuchepa kwa zogulitsa kunja kwadzetsa kutsika kwamakampani. Pakadali pano, mafakitale 27 ang'onoang'ono komanso apakati ku Bangladesh asiya kupanga chifukwa chotayika, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti antchito pafupifupi 18,000 asowe ntchito. Bungwe la BGMEA lachenjeza kuti ngati mitengoyi ikhalapo kwa miyezi yoposa isanu ndi umodzi, mafakitale opitilira 50 m'dziko lonselo atsekedwa, ndipo chiwerengero cha anthu omwe alibe ntchito chikhoza kupitirira 100,000, zomwe zidzakhudzanso bata ndi chitetezo cha anthu mdziko muno. Nthawi yomweyo, mafakitale a nsalu ku Bangladesh amadalira kwambiri thonje lochokera kunja (pafupifupi 90% ya thonje iyenera kugulidwa kuchokera ku US ndi India). Kutsika kwakukulu kwa ndalama zogulira kunja kudzetsanso kuchepa kwa nkhokwe za ndalama zakunja, zomwe zidzasokoneza kuthekera kwa dziko kuitanitsa zinthu zopangira zinthu monga thonje komanso kupanga mchitidwe woipa wa “kuchepa kwa katundu wa kunja → kusowa kwa zipangizo zopangira → kuchepetsa mphamvu”.
II. Sri Lanka: 44% Misonkho Imaphwanya Mtengo Pansi Pansi, Makampani Azambiri Pamphepete mwa "Kuphwanyika Kwa Chain"
Poyerekeza ndi dziko la Bangladesh, msika wa nsalu ku Sri Lanka ndi wocheperako komanso "mwala wapangodya" wachuma chake chadziko. Makampani opanga nsalu ndi zovala amathandizira 5% ya GDP ya dzikolo ndi 45% ya kuchuluka kwake komwe kumatumiza kunja, ndi antchito achindunji opitilira 300,000, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ikhale bizinesi yayikulu pakubwezeretsa chuma ku Sri Lanka nkhondo itatha. Kutumiza kwake ku US kumayang'aniridwa ndi nsalu zapakati mpaka zapamwamba komanso zovala zogwirira ntchito (monga masewera ndi zovala zamkati). Mu 2023, zogulitsa nsalu ku Sri Lanka kupita ku US zidafika $1.8 biliyoni, zomwe zidapangitsa 7% ya msika waku US wa nsalu zapakati mpaka zapamwamba.
Kuwonjezeka kwa US kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa Sri Lanka kufika pa 44% nthawi ino kumapangitsa kuti likhale limodzi mwa mayiko omwe ali ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali kwambiri panthawiyi ya "mitengo yofanana". Malinga ndi kuwunika kwa Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA), mitengo yamitengo iyi ikweza mwachindunji mitengo yotumizira nsalu mdziko muno pafupifupi 30%. Kutengera chinthu chodziwika bwino cha ku Sri Lanka chotumiza kunja—“nsalu yansalu ya thonje ya organic”—mwachitsanzo, mtengo woyambirira wotumiza kunja pa mita imodzi unali $8. Pambuyo pa kuwonjezeka kwa msonkho, mtengowo unakwera kufika pa $ 11.52, pamene mtengo wa zinthu zofanana zomwe zimatumizidwa kuchokera ku India ndi Vietnam ndi $ 9- $ 10 yokha. Kupikisana kwamitengo yazinthu zaku Sri Lankan kwatsala pang'ono kutha.
Pakadali pano, mabizinesi angapo otumiza kunja ku Sri Lanka alandila "zidziwitso zoyimitsidwa" kuchokera kwa makasitomala aku US. Mwachitsanzo, Brandix Group, kampani yogulitsa kunja kwambiri ku Sri Lanka, idatulutsa zovala zamkati zamtundu wa Under Armor waku US zomwe zinali kuyitanitsa pamwezi zidutswa 500,000. Tsopano, chifukwa chazovuta zamitengo, Under Armor yasamutsa 30% ya malamulo ake kumafakitale ku Vietnam. Bizinesi ina, Hirdaramani, idati ngati mitengoyo sichotsedwa, bizinesi yake yotumiza ku US idzawonongeka mkati mwa miyezi itatu, ndipo itha kukakamizidwa kutseka mafakitale awiri omwe ali ku Colombo, zomwe zikukhudza ntchito 8,000. Kuonjezera apo, makampani opanga nsalu ku Sri Lanka amadalira chitsanzo cha "processing with imported materials" (zochokera kunja zimakhala ndi 70% ya chiwerengero). Kutsekeka kwa zotumiza kunja kumabweretsa kuchulukirachulukira kwazinthu zopangira, kutengera ndalama zogwirira ntchito zamabizinesi ndikuwonjezera zovuta zawo pantchito.
III. US Domestic Sector: Chisokonezo Chakugulitsa Kwazinthu + Zokwera Mtengo, Makampani Opezeka mu "Dilemma"
Boma la US lomwe likuwoneka kuti likukhudzana ndi "opikisana nawo akunja", ladzetsa "kubwerera" motsutsana ndi makampani opanga nsalu ndi zovala. Monga wogulitsa wamkulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wa nsalu ndi zovala (womwe amalowetsa ndalama zokwana $120 biliyoni mu 2023), makampani opanga nsalu ndi zovala ku US akuwonetsa njira ya "zopanga zapakhomo komanso kudalira kutsika kwakunja" -mabizinesi apakhomo makamaka amatulutsa zopangira monga thonje ndi ulusi wamankhwala, pomwe 90% yazovala zomalizidwa zimadalira kuchokera kunja. Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka ndizofunika kwambiri zopangira zovala zapakati mpaka zotsika komanso nsalu zapakatikati mpaka zapamwamba ku US.
Kuwonjezeka kwa mitengo yamitengo kwakweza mwachindunji mitengo yogulira mabizinesi aku US. Kafukufuku wa American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) akuwonetsa kuti phindu lapakati la ogulitsa nsalu ndi zovala ku US ndi 3% -5% yokha pakadali pano. Mtengo wa 37% -44% umatanthawuza kuti mabizinesi "amatengera okha ndalama" (zomwe zimadzetsa kutayika) kapena "kuzipereka kuti mitengo ithe". Potengera chitsanzo cha JC Penney, wogulitsa m'nyumba waku US, mtengo woyambirira wa ma jeans ogulidwa kuchokera ku Bangladesh unali $49.9. Pambuyo pakuwonjezeka kwa msonkho, ngati phindu la phindu liyenera kusungidwa, mtengo wogulitsa uyenera kukwera mpaka $ 68.9, kuwonjezeka kwa pafupifupi 40%. Ngati mtengowo sunachuluke, phindu pa thalauza lidzatsika kuchokera ku $ 3 mpaka $ 0,5, osasiya pafupifupi phindu.
Nthawi yomweyo, kusatsimikizika kwa chain chain kwayika mabizinesi mu "vuto lopanga zisankho". Julia Hughes, Purezidenti wa AAFA, adanena pamsonkhano waposachedwa wamakampani kuti mabizinesi aku US poyambilira adakonza zochepetsera ngozi mwa "kuphatikiza malo ogula" (monga kusamutsa maoda ena kuchokera ku China kupita ku Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka). Komabe, kukwera kwadzidzidzi kwa ndondomeko ya tarifi kwasokoneza mapulani onse: "Mabizinesi sakudziwa kuti ndi dziko liti lomwe lidzakhale lotsatira kugundidwa ndi kukwera mitengo kwamitengo, komanso sadziwa kuti mitengo yamitengoyi itenga nthawi yayitali bwanji. Sayerekeza kusaina mapangano anthawi yayitali ndi ogulitsa atsopano, osasiyapo kuyika ndalama pomanga njira zatsopano zogulitsira. Pakadali pano, 35% ya ogulitsa zovala zaku US adanenanso kuti "ayimitsa kusaina maoda atsopano", ndipo 28% yamabizinesi ayamba kuwunikanso maunyolo awo operekera, poganizira zotumiza ku Mexico ndi mayiko aku Central America omwe sali ndi msonkho. Komabe, mphamvu zopangira m'maderawa ndizochepa (zokhazo zimatha kutenga 15% ya zovala za US zochokera kunja), zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kudzaza msika womwe unasiyidwa ndi Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka mu nthawi yochepa.
Kuphatikiza apo, ogula aku US pamapeto pake "adzayendetsa bilu". Zambiri kuchokera ku US Bureau of Labor Statistics zikuwonetsa kuti kuyambira 2024, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) pazovala zakwera ndi 3.2% pachaka. Kutentha kosalekeza kwa malamulo a mitengo yamitengo kungapangitse kuti mitengo ya zovala ionjezekenso ndi 5% -7% pakutha kwa chaka, zomwe zikuwonjezera kutsika kwa mitengo. Kwa magulu omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa, ndalama zogulira zovala zimakhala ndi gawo lalikulu la ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito (pafupifupi 8%), ndipo kukwera kwamitengo kudzakhudza momwe amagwiritsira ntchito, motero kuchepetsa kufunika kwa msika wa zovala zapakhomo ku US.
IV. Kukonzanso kwa Global Textile Supply Chain: Zisokonezo Zanthawi Yaifupi ndi Kusintha Kwanthawi Yaitali Pamodzi
Kukwera kwamitengo ya US ku Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka kwenikweni ndi gawo laling'ono la "geopoliticization" la msika wogulitsa nsalu padziko lonse lapansi. M'kanthawi kochepa, ndondomekoyi yachititsa kuti pakhale "vacuum zone" muzitsulo zapadziko lonse zapakatikati mpaka zotsika-kutayika kwadongosolo ku Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka sikungathe kutengeka ndi mayiko ena pakanthawi kochepa, zomwe zingayambitse "kusowa kwazinthu" kwa ogulitsa ena aku US. Nthawi yomweyo, kuchepa kwa mafakitale opanga nsalu m'maiko awiriwa kudzakhudzanso kufunikira kwa zinthu zakumtunda monga thonje ndi ulusi wamankhwala, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mayiko omwe amatumiza thonje kunja kwa dziko lino monga US ndi India asokonezeke.
M'kupita kwa nthawi, msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wogula nsalu ukhoza kufulumizitsa kusintha kwake ku "kuyandikira" ndi "kusiyana": mabizinesi aku US atha kusamutsa maoda ku Mexico ndi Canada (akusangalala ndi zokonda zamtengo wapatali pansi pa mgwirizano wa North America Free Trade Agreement), mabizinesi aku Europe atha kuwonjezera kugula kuchokera ku Turkey ndi Morocco, pomwe mabizinesi aku China aku China atha kutengera ma chain kupanga zinthu), zitha kutenga madongosolo apakati mpaka apamwamba (monga nsalu zogwirira ntchito ndi zovala zokomera chilengedwe) kuchokera ku Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka. Komabe, kusintha kumeneku kudzatenga nthawi (kuyerekeza zaka 1-2) ndipo kudzatsagana ndi kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomangidwiranso, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kuthetsa chipwirikiti chomwe chilipo posachedwa.
Kwa mabizinesi aku China opangira nsalu zakunja, kusokonekera kwamitengo iyi kumabweretsa zovuta zonse (zofunika kuthana ndi zofooka zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi mpikisano wapaintaneti) ndi mwayi wobisika. Atha kulimbikitsa mgwirizano ndi mafakitale aku Bangladesh ndi Sri Lanka (monga kupereka chithandizo chaukadaulo ndi kupanga limodzi) kuti apewe zopinga za US. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, akhoza kuwonjezera kuyesetsa kufufuza misika yomwe ikubwera monga Southeast Asia ndi Africa, kuchepetsa kudalira msika umodzi ku Ulaya ndi US, potero kupeza malo abwino kwambiri pomanganso malonda a padziko lonse.
Nthawi yotumiza: Aug-16-2025