Njira zotumizira ndizovuta ndipo malonda a nsalu ndi ovuta kwambiri!

Shitouchenli

oyang'anira ogulitsa

Ndife kampani yotsogola yogulitsa nsalu zoluka ndi cholinga champhamvu chopatsa makasitomala athu mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya nsalu. Udindo wathu wapadera monga fakitale yopangira gwero umatilola kuphatikizira mosasunthika zida zopangira, kupanga, ndi utoto, zomwe zimatipatsa mwayi wopikisana pamitengo ndi mtundu.
Monga bwenzi lodalirika pamakampani opanga nsalu, timanyadira luso lathu lopereka nsalu zapamwamba pamitengo yopikisana. Kudzipereka kwathu pakuchita bwino komanso kukhutira kwamakasitomala kwatiyika kukhala ogulitsa odalirika komanso odalirika pamsika.

Kusokonekera kwa mikangano ya geopolitical pamalonda ogulitsa nsalu kuli ngati kuyika "cholepheretsa" m'mitsempha yamagazi yosalala yapadziko lonse lapansi, ndipo zotsatira zake zimalowa m'magawo angapo monga mayendedwe, mtengo, nthawi yake, ndi ntchito zamakampani.

1. "Kusweka ndi kupotokola" kwa mayendedwe: Kuyang'ana momwe mayendedwe amanjira kuchokera kumavuto a Nyanja Yofiira.
Malonda a nsalu amadalira kwambiri mayendedwe apanyanja, makamaka njira zazikulu zolumikizira Asia, Europe, ndi Africa. Kutengera vuto la Nyanja Yofiira monga chitsanzo, monga "pakhosi" la zombo zapadziko lonse lapansi, Nyanja Yofiira ndi Suez Canal imanyamula pafupifupi 12% ya kuchuluka kwazamalonda padziko lonse lapansi, komanso ndi njira zazikuluzikulu zotumizira nsalu za ku Asia ku Europe ndi Africa. Mkhalidwe wovuta pa Nyanja Yofiira chifukwa cha kukula kwa mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine komanso kukula kwa mkangano pakati pa Lebanon ndi Israel kwapangitsa kuti chiwopsezo cha zombo zamalonda chikuwukidwe. Kuyambira 2024, zombo zamalonda zopitilira 30 mu Nyanja Yofiira zawukiridwa ndi ma drones kapena mizinga. Pofuna kupewa ngozi, zimphona zambiri zapanyanja zapadziko lonse (monga Maersk ndi Mediterranean Shipping) zalengeza za kuyimitsidwa kwa njira ya Nyanja Yofiira ndipo zasankha kupatuka kuzungulira Cape of Good Hope ku Africa.
Zotsatira za "njira" iyi pamalonda a nsalu ndi nthawi yomweyo: ulendo woyambirira wochokera ku Yangtze River Delta ku China ndi madoko a Pearl River Delta kupita ku European Port of Rotterdam kudzera pa Suez Canal unatenga masiku 30, koma atadutsa ku Cape of Good Hope, ulendowu unawonjezedwa kwa masiku 45-50, ndikuwonjezera nthawi yoyendera pafupifupi 50%. Kwa nsalu zokhala ndi nyengo zolimba (monga thonje lopepuka ndi nsalu m'chilimwe ndi nsalu zotentha zolukidwa m'nyengo yozizira), kuchedwa kwa nthawi kumatha kuphonya mwachindunji nyengo yogulitsa kwambiri - mwachitsanzo, zovala za ku Europe zoyambira zidakonzekera kulandira nsalu za ku Asia ndikuyamba kupanga mu Disembala 2024 pokonzekera zinthu zatsopano kumapeto kwa 2025. kuchotsera.

2. Kukwera mtengo: kuthamanga kwa unyolo kuchokera ku katundu kupita ku katundu
Zotsatira zachindunji za kusintha kwa njira ndikukwera kwa ndalama zamayendedwe. Mu Disembala 2024, mitengo yonyamula katundu wa chidebe cha 40 mapazi kuchokera ku China kupita ku Europe idakwera kuchokera pafupifupi $1,500 vuto la Nyanja Yofiira lisanachitike mpaka $4,500, kuchuluka kwa 200%; nthawi yomweyo, kuchuluka kwa mtunda waulendo wobwera chifukwa cha njira yokhotakhota kudachepetsa kuchuluka kwa zombo zapamadzi, komanso kuchepa kwa mphamvu zapadziko lonse lapansi kudapangitsa kuti katundu akwere. Pakuti malonda nsalu, amene ali otsika phindu malire (avareji phindu malire ndi za 5% -8%), kuchuluka kwa ndalama zonyamula katundu mwachindunji pofinya malire phindu - nsalu kunja kampani ku Shaoxing, Zhejiang, anawerengetsera kuti katundu mtengo wa mtanda wa thonje nsalu zotumizidwa ku Germany mu January 2025, poyerekeza ndi 20020 2080 nthawi yomweyo, poyerekeza ndi 20020 2080 nthawi. zofanana ndi 60% ya phindu la dongosolo.
Kuphatikiza pa katundu wachindunji, ndalama zosalunjika zidakweranso nthawi imodzi. Pofuna kuthana ndi kuchedwa kwa mayendedwe, makampani opanga nsalu amayenera kukonzekera pasadakhale, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale zotsalira zotsalira: m'gawo lachinayi la 2024, masiku obwera kwa nsalu m'magulu akuluakulu a nsalu ku China adzakulitsidwa kuchokera masiku 35 mpaka masiku 52, ndipo ndalama zowerengera (monga chindapusa chosungira ndi chiwongola dzanja pa ntchito yayikulu) zidzakwera pafupifupi 1%. Kuonjezera apo, nsalu zina (monga silika wapamwamba ndi nsalu zotambasula) zimakhala ndi zofunikira kwambiri pa malo osungiramo zinthu. Kuwerengera kwa nthawi yayitali kungayambitse kusinthika kwa nsalu ndi kutsika kwa elasticity, kuonjezera chiopsezo cha kutayika.

3. Chiwopsezo chosokonekera chaunyolo: "butterfly effect" kuchokera kuzinthu zopangira mpaka kupanga
Mikangano yazachilengedwe imathanso kuyambitsa kusokonekera kwaunyolo kumtunda ndi kunsi kwa msika wamakampani opanga nsalu. Mwachitsanzo, ku Europe ndikofunikira kupanga zinthu zopangira mankhwala (monga poliyesitala ndi nayiloni). Mkangano wapakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine wadzetsa kusinthasintha kwamitengo yamagetsi ku Europe, ndipo mitengo ina yamankhwala yachepetsa kapena kuyimitsa kupanga. Mu 2024, kutulutsa kwa ulusi wa polyester ku Europe kudzatsika ndi 12% pachaka, ndikukweza mtengo wazinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi zamafuta, zomwe zimakhudzanso mtengo wamakampani opanga nsalu omwe amadalira izi.
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, makhalidwe a "multi-link Cooperation" a malonda a nsalu amachititsa kuti zikhale zovuta kwambiri pa kukhazikika kwazitsulo zogulitsira. Chidutswa chansalu cha thonje chosindikizidwa chomwe chimatumizidwa ku United States chingafunikire kuitanitsa ulusi wa thonje kuchokera ku India, utoto ndi kusindikiza ku China, kenako nkuupanga kukhala nsalu kumwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia, ndipo potsirizira pake kutumizidwa kudutsa njira ya Nyanja Yofiira. Ngati ulalo watsekeredwa ndi mikangano yazandale (monga kutumiza thonje ku India kuli ndi malire chifukwa cha chipwirikiti cha ndale), zopanga zonse zidzayima. Mu 2024, lamulo loletsa kutumiza ulusi wa thonje m'maiko ena aku India kudapangitsa makampani ambiri aku China osindikiza ndi utoto kuti asiye kupanga chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zinthu zopangira, ndipo kuchedwa kwa maoda kudapitilira 30%. Zotsatira zake, makasitomala ena akunja adatembenukira kwa ogulitsa ena monga Bangladesh ndi Vietnam, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti makasitomala atayika nthawi yayitali.

4. Kusintha kwa Njira Yamabungwe: Kuchokera ku Mayankho Osauka kupita ku Kumanganso Kwachangu
Poyang'anizana ndi kusokonekera kwazinthu zomwe zimayambitsidwa ndi geopolitics, makampani ogulitsa nsalu amakakamizika kusintha njira zawo:
Njira zosiyanasiyana zoyendera: Makampani ena amachulukitsa kuchuluka kwa masitima apamtunda aku China-Europe ndi zoyendera ndege. Mwachitsanzo, chiwerengero cha sitima zapamtunda za China-Europe zopangira nsalu kuchokera ku China kupita ku Ulaya mu 2024 zidzawonjezeka ndi 40% chaka ndi chaka, koma mtengo wa njanji ndi maulendo atatu a maulendo apanyanja, omwe amangogwiritsidwa ntchito pa nsalu zapamwamba zamtengo wapatali (monga silika ndi nsalu zogwira ntchito zamasewera);
Kugula m'malo: Kuchulukitsa ndalama zogulira zopangira zoweta zapakhomo, monga kuchulukitsa kagwiritsidwe ntchito kazinthu zopangira zakomweko monga thonje la Xinjiang lalitali komanso ulusi wa nsungwi wa Sichuan, komanso kuchepetsa kudalira zinthu zopangidwa kuchokera kunja;
Kukonzekera kwa malo osungira kunja kwa nyanja: Konzani malo osungiramo katundu ku Southeast Asia ndi Europe, sungani mitundu ya nsalu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri, ndikufupikitsa nthawi yobweretsera - Kumayambiriro kwa 2025, kampani yopanga nsalu ku Zhejiang yasunga mayadi 2 miliyoni a nsalu ya thonje m'nyumba yake yosungiramo zinthu zakunja ku Vietnam, yomwe imatha kuyankha mwachangu kumayiko aku South Asia.

Nthawi zambiri, mikangano pakati pa mayiko yakhudza kwambiri kukhazikika kwa malonda a nsalu posokoneza mayendedwe, kukwera mtengo, komanso kuphwanya njira zogulitsira. Kwa mabizinesi, izi ndizovuta komanso mphamvu kuti makampani apititse patsogolo kusintha kwawo kukhala "kusinthika, kukhazikika, komanso kusiyanasiyana" kuti athe kupirira zovuta zapadziko lonse lapansi.