I. Price Warning
Recent Weak Price Trend: As of August, the prices of polyester filament and staple fiber (key raw materials for polyester fabric) have shown a downward trend. For example, the benchmark price of polyester staple fiber on the Business Society was 6,600 yuan/ton at the start of the month, and dropped to 6,474.83 yuan/ton by August 8, with a cumulative decrease of approximately 1.9%. As of August 15, the quoted prices of POY (150D/48F) from major polyester filament factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region ranged from 6,600 to 6,900 yuan/ton, while polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) was quoted at 7,800 to 8,050 yuan/ton and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7,000 to 7,200 yuan/ton—all of which saw varying degrees of decline compared to the same period last year.
Limited Cost-Side Support: International crude oil prices are currently fluctuating within a range due to factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ policies, failing to provide sustained and strong cost support for the upstream of polyester fabric. For PTA, the release of new production capacity has increased supply, creating pressure on price increases; ethylene glycol prices also face weak support due to crude oil declines and other factors. Collectively, the cost side of polyester fabric cannot provide strong underpinning for its prices.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Restricts Price Rebound: Although the overall inventory of polyester filament is currently at a relatively low level (POY inventory: 6–17 days, FDY inventory: 4–17 days, DTY inventory: 5–17 days), the downstream textile and garment industry is experiencing reduced orders, leading to a decline in the operating rate of weaving enterprises and weak demand. Additionally, the release of new production capacity continues to intensify supply pressure. The prominent supply-demand imbalance in the industry means that a significant short-term price rebound is unlikely.
II. Stocking Recommendations
Short-Term Stocking Strategy: Given that the current period marks the end of the traditional off-season, with no substantial recovery in downstream demand, weaving enterprises still hold high gray fabric inventory (approximately 36.8 days). Enterprises should avoid aggressive stocking and instead focus on procuring only enough to meet rigid demand for the next 1–2 weeks, to prevent the risk of inventory backlog. Meanwhile, continuously monitor trends in crude oil prices and the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament factories. If crude oil rebounds sharply or the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament rises significantly for several consecutive days, consider moderately increasing replenishment volume.
Mid-to-Long-Term Stocking Timing: With the arrival of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season for garment consumption, if demand in the downstream garment market improves, it will drive up demand for polyester fabric and potentially trigger a price rebound. Enterprises can closely monitor the growth of polyester fabric orders in the market from late August to early September. If terminal orders surge and the operating rate of weaving enterprises rises further, they may choose to conduct moderate mid-to-long-term raw material reserves before fabric prices increase significantly, in preparation for peak-season production. However, the reserve volume should not exceed the normal usage for about 2 months, to mitigate the risk of price fluctuations caused by lower-than-expected peak-season demand.
Use of Risk Hedging Tools: For enterprises of a certain scale, futures market tools can be used to hedge against potential price fluctuation risks. If a price increase is expected in the coming period, appropriately purchase futures contracts to lock in costs; if a price decline is anticipated, sell futures contracts to avoid losses.
Post time: Aug-21-2025