Tsis ntev los no, tsoomfwv Meskas tau txuas ntxiv nce nws txoj cai "kev sib koom ua ke" txoj cai, suav nrog Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka hauv cov npe rau kev rau txim thiab ua rau cov nqi se siab ntawm 37% thiab 44% raws li. Qhov kev txav no tsis tau tsuas yog cuam tshuam rau "lub hom phiaj phiaj xwm" rau kev lag luam ntawm ob lub teb chaws, uas yog nyob ntawm kev xa tawm ntawm textile, tab sis kuj ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov saw hlau hauv ntiaj teb cov khoom siv textile. Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam textile thiab khaub ncaws hauv tsev kuj tau raug ntes nyob rau hauv ob qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm cov nqi nce siab thiab cov saw hlau tsis sib haum.
I. Bangladesh: Textile Exports poob $3.3 nphom, Ntau lab txoj haujlwm ntawm ceg txheem ntseeg
Raws li lub ntiaj teb thib ob-loj tshaj plaws cov khaub ncaws xa tawm, kev lag luam textile thiab khaub ncaws yog "kev lag luam lifeline" ntawm Bangladesh. Qhov kev lag luam no pab txhawb 11% ntawm tag nrho lub teb chaws GDP, 84% ntawm nws tag nrho cov export ntim, thiab ncaj qha mus rau kev ua hauj lwm ntawm ntau tshaj 4 lab tus tib neeg (80% ntawm cov poj niam ua hauj lwm). Nws kuj tseem txhawb nqa kev ua neej nyob ntawm ntau dua 15 lab tus tib neeg nyob rau hauv cov kev lag luam sab saud thiab qis qis. Tebchaws Asmeskas yog Bangladesh lub lag luam xa tawm thib ob loj tshaj plaws tom qab European Union. Xyoo 2023, Bangladesh cov ntaub ntawv thiab khaub ncaws xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas tau txog $ 6.4 nphom, suav txog ntau dua 95% ntawm tag nrho nws cov khoom xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas, suav nrog cov khoom lag luam nruab nrab mus rau qis-kawg ceev ceev xws li T-shirts, ris tsho, thiab tsho, thiab ua haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv cov saw hlau rau Asmeskas cov khw muag khoom xws li Walmart thiab Target.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau txiav txim siab 37% tariff rau cov khoom Bangladeshi lub sij hawm no txhais tau hais tias ib tug paj rwb T-shirt los ntawm Bangladesh, uas Ameslikas muaj tus nqi ntawm $10 thiab ib tug export nqi ntawm $15, yuav tau them ib tug ntxiv $5.55 nyob rau hauv tariffs tom qab nkag mus rau hauv lub US ua lag luam, thawb tag nrho cov nqi mus txog $20.55 ncaj qha. Rau Bangladesh txoj kev lag luam textile, uas tso siab rau "tus nqi qis thiab cov nyiaj tau los nyias" raws li nws cov txiaj ntsig kev sib tw tseem ceeb, tus nqi tariff no tau dhau deb tshaj qhov kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig nruab nrab ntawm 5% -8%. Raws li kev kwv yees los ntawm Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers thiab Exporters Association (BGMEA), tom qab cov nqi se siv tau, lub teb chaws cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas yuav poob qis los ntawm $ 6.4 billion ib xyoos rau kwv yees li $ 3.1 nphom, nrog rau kev poob txhua xyoo txog li $ 3.3 billion-sib npaug rau stripping lub teb chaws textile kev lag luam ze li ntawm ib nrab ntawm nws cov lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas.
Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, qhov poob ntawm kev xa tawm tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam. Txog tam sim no, 27 lub tsev textile me thiab nruab nrab hauv Bangladesh tau tso tseg kev tsim khoom vim poob xaj, ua rau muaj kev poob haujlwm ntawm kwv yees li 18,000 tus neeg ua haujlwm. BGMEA tau ceeb toom tias yog tias cov nqi se tseem nyob rau ntau dua rau lub hlis, ntau dua 50 lub chaw tsim khoom thoob plaws lub tebchaws yuav raug kaw, thiab cov neeg poob haujlwm yuav ntau dua 100,000, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau kev noj qab haus huv thiab kev nyab xeeb ntawm tib neeg nyob hauv lub tebchaws. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Bangladesh kev lag luam textile yog nyob ntawm cov paj rwb tuaj txawv teb chaws (kwv yees li 90% paj rwb yuav tsum tau yuav los ntawm Asmeskas thiab Is Nrias teb). Kev poob qis hauv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev xa tawm kuj tseem yuav ua rau muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws, cuam tshuam rau lub teb chaws lub peev xwm los import cov ntaub ntawv raw xws li paj rwb thiab tsim kom muaj lub voj voog tsis zoo ntawm "kev poob qis → tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv raw → muaj peev xwm contraction".
II. Sri Lanka: 44% tariff tsoo tus nqi hauv qab kab, Pillar kev lag luam ntawm Brink ntawm "Chain Breakage"
Piv nrog rau Bangladesh, Sri Lanka kev lag luam textile yog me me tab sis sib npaug "pob zeb" ntawm nws lub teb chaws kev lag luam. Kev lag luam textile thiab khaub ncaws pab txhawb 5% ntawm lub teb chaws GDP thiab 45% ntawm tag nrho cov export ntim, nrog ntau tshaj 300,000 tus neeg ua hauj lwm ncaj qha, ua rau nws yog ib tug tseem ceeb kev lag luam rau Sri Lanka kev lag luam rov qab tom qab tsov rog. Nws cov khoom xa tawm mus rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas yog cov khoom siv nruab nrab-rau-siab-kawg thiab cov khaub ncaws ua haujlwm (xws li khaub ncaws ncaws pob thiab ris tsho hauv qab). Hauv xyoo 2023, Sri Lanka cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas tau mus txog $ 1.8 billion, suav txog 7% ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam ntshuam rau nruab nrab-rau-high-end fabrics.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas nce ntawm Sri Lanka tus nqi tariff rau 44% lub sij hawm no ua rau nws yog ib lub teb chaws uas muaj tus nqi tariff ntau tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub round ntawm "reciprocal tariffs". Raws li kev txheeb xyuas los ntawm Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA), tus nqi tariff no yuav ncaj qha thawb lub teb chaws tus nqi xa tawm los ntawm kwv yees li 30%. Noj Sri Lanka cov khoom lag luam tshaj tawm - "organic paj rwb sportswear npuag" - piv txwv li, tus nqi xa tawm thawj zaug ib meter yog $ 8. Tom qab kev nce nqi, tus nqi tau nce mus rau $ 11.52, thaum tus nqi ntawm cov khoom zoo sib xws tuaj ntawm Is Nrias teb thiab Nyab Laj tsuas yog $ 9- $ 10. Tus nqi sib tw ntawm Sri Lankan cov khoom tau yuav luag tag nrho.
Tam sim no, ntau lub tuam txhab xa tawm hauv Sri Lanka tau txais "kev ceeb toom ncua kev txiav txim" los ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom. Piv txwv li, Brandix Group, Sri Lanka tus loj tshaj plaws tsoos tsho exporter, Ameslikas tsim cov ris tsho hauv qab rau US cov kev ua si hom Under Armour nrog ib lub hlis xaj ntim ntawm 500,000 daim. Tam sim no, vim muaj teeb meem tus nqi tariff, Under Armor tau pauv 30% ntawm nws cov xaj mus rau cov chaw tsim khoom hauv Nyab Laj. Lwm lub tuam txhab, Hirdaramani, tau hais tias yog tias tsis tshem cov nqi se, nws cov lag luam xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas yuav raug kev poob qis hauv peb lub hlis, thiab nws yuav raug yuam kom kaw ob lub chaw tsim khoom nyob hauv Colombo, cuam tshuam txog 8,000 txoj haujlwm. Tsis tas li ntawd, Sri Lanka kev lag luam textile cia siab rau "kev ua haujlwm nrog cov khoom siv txawv teb chaws" (cov khoom siv raw khoom tuaj yeem suav txog 70% ntawm tag nrho). Qhov thaiv ntawm kev xa tawm yuav ua rau rov qab ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, tuav cov peev txheej ntawm cov lag luam thiab ua rau lawv cov teeb meem ua haujlwm hnyav ntxiv.
III. Teb Chaws Asmeskas Kev Lag Luam: Cov Kev Sib Txuas Sib Txuas Sib Tham + Cov Nqi Tshaj Tawm, Kev Lag Luam raug ntes hauv "Dilemma"
Tsoomfwv Meskas txoj cai tswjfwm se, uas zoo li tsom rau "cov neeg sib tw txawv teb chaws", tau ua rau muaj "rov qab" tawm tsam kev lag luam textile thiab khaub ncaws hauv tsev. Raws li lub ntiaj teb tus neeg xa khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm textiles thiab khaub ncaws (nrog rau qhov ntim ntawm $ 120 nphom hauv xyoo 2023), US textile thiab apparel kev lag luam nthuav tawm cov qauv ntawm "sab sauv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv qis qis" - cov lag luam hauv tsev feem ntau tsim cov khoom siv raw xws li paj rwb thiab tshuaj fibers, thaum 90% ntawm cov khaub ncaws ua tiav cia siab rau kev xa khoom. Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khaub ncaws nruab nrab mus rau qis-kawg thiab nruab nrab-rau-high-end fabrics rau Asmeskas
Qhov kev nce nqi se tau ncaj qha thawb tus nqi yuav khoom ntawm Asmeskas cov lag luam hauv tsev. Ib daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas los ntawm American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) qhia tau hais tias qhov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ntawm US textile thiab khaub ncaws xa khoom tsuas yog 3% -5% tam sim no. A 37% -44% tariff txhais tau hais tias cov lag luam yog "sab tus nqi ntawm lawv tus kheej" (ua rau poob) lossis "hloov lawv mus rau qhov kawg tus nqi". Noj JC Penney, ib lub khw muag khoom hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, ua piv txwv, thawj tus nqi muag khoom ntawm cov ris tsho yuav los ntawm Bangladesh yog $ 49.9. Tom qab tus nqi nce ntxiv, yog tias cov nyiaj tau los yuav tsum tau khaws cia, tus nqi muag khoom yuav tsum nce mus rau $ 68.9, nce ze li ntawm 40%. Yog tias tus nqi tsis nce ntxiv, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib nkawm ris yuav poob ntawm $ 3 mus rau $ 0.5, tawm hauv yuav luag tsis muaj txiaj ntsig.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov khoom lag luam tsis paub tseeb tau ua rau cov lag luam nyob rau hauv "kev txiav txim siab tsis zoo". Julia Hughes, Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm AAFA, tau taw qhia ntawm lub rooj sib tham kev lag luam tsis ntev los no uas Asmeskas cov tuam txhab tau npaj los txo kev pheej hmoo los ntawm "kev sib txawv ntawm qhov chaw yuav khoom" (xws li hloov qee qhov kev txiav txim los ntawm Tuam Tshoj mus rau Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka). Txawm li cas los xij, kev nce nrawm ntawm txoj cai tariff tau cuam tshuam tag nrho cov phiaj xwm: "Cov tuam txhab tsis paub tias lub tebchaws twg yuav yog lub tebchaws tom ntej yuav raug kev nce nqi se, thiab lawv tsis paub ntev npaum li cas tus nqi se yuav kav ntev npaum li cas. Tam sim no, 35% ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg xa khoom hnav khaub ncaws tau hais tias lawv yuav "tshem tawm kev kos npe rau daim ntawv xaj tshiab", thiab 28% ntawm cov tuam txhab tau pib rov ntsuam xyuas lawv cov saw hlau, xav txog kev xa cov xaj mus rau Mexico thiab Central American lub teb chaws uas tsis them los ntawm tariffs. Txawm li cas los xij, kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm hauv cov cheeb tsam no tsuas yog muaj kev txwv (tsuas yog muaj peev xwm ua tiav 15% ntawm Asmeskas cov ris tsho ntshuam), ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev ua lag luam sib txawv ntawm Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka hauv lub sijhawm luv luv.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov neeg siv khoom Asmeskas yuav kawg "ko taw daim nqi". Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm US Bureau of Labor Statistics qhia tias txij li xyoo 2024, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rau khaub ncaws tau nce 3.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Qhov kev fermentation tsis tu ncua ntawm txoj cai tariff yuav ua rau ib tug ntxiv 5% -7% nce nyob rau hauv cov khaub ncaws nqi nyob rau hauv lub kawg ntawm lub xyoo, ntxiv intensifying inflationary pressures. Rau cov pab pawg neeg tau nyiaj tsawg, kev siv nyiaj hauv khaub ncaws suav nrog feem ntau ntawm cov nyiaj tau los pov tseg (kwv yees li 8%), thiab cov nqi nce yuav cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau lawv cov peev txheej, yog li txwv qhov kev thov rau Asmeskas kev lag luam khaub ncaws hauv tsev.
IV. Reconstruction ntawm Ntiaj Teb Textile Supply Chain: Short-Term Chaos thiab Long-term Adjustment Coexist
Tebchaws Asmeskas nce nqi se rau Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm "geopoliticization" ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov khoom siv textile. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, txoj cai no tau ua rau "qhov chaw nqus tsev" nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb nruab nrab-rau-kawg-kawg khaub ncaws-kev txiav txim poob hauv Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam tag nrho los ntawm lwm lub tebchaws nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, uas tuaj yeem ua rau "cov khoom tsis txaus" rau qee tus neeg muag khoom hauv Asmeskas. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam textile hauv ob lub tebchaws no tseem yuav cuam tshuam rau qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv raw xws li paj rwb thiab tshuaj fiber ntau, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis ncaj rau paj rwb-exporting lub teb chaws xws li Asmeskas thiab Is Nrias teb.
Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, lub ntiaj teb no textile mov saw yuav ceev nws hloov mus rau "nearshoring" thiab "diversification": US cov tuam txhab yuav ntxiv kev txiav txim mus rau Mexico thiab Canada (nyiam dua tariff nyiam nyob rau hauv lub North American Free Trade Daim ntawv cog lus), European lag luam yuav nce procurement los ntawm Qaib Cov Txwv thiab Morocco, thaum Suav textile lag luam, vam khom rau lawv "tag nrho cov khoom lag luam saw zoo los ntawm cov khoom lag luam" mid-rau-high-end xaj (xws li cov ntaub ua haujlwm thiab cov khaub ncaws hauv eco-phooj ywg) hloov los ntawm Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev hloov kho no yuav siv sij hawm (kwv yees li 1-2 xyoos) thiab yuav nrog cov nqi nce ntxiv rau kev tsim kho cov saw hlau, ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev daws qhov teeb meem kev lag luam tam sim no hauv lub sijhawm luv luv.
Rau Suav textile kev lag luam txawv teb chaws kev lag luam, qhov kev sib tw ntawm tariff teeb meem no coj ob qho tib si kev cov nyom (yuav tsum tau daws cov kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog thiab cov saw hlau sib tw) thiab cov cib fim zais cia. Lawv tuaj yeem ntxiv dag zog rau kev koom tes nrog cov chaw tsim khoom hauv zos hauv Bangladesh thiab Sri Lanka (xws li muab kev txhawb nqa thiab kev tsim khoom sib koom ua ke) kom tsis txhob muaj US tariff barrier. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lawv tuaj yeem nce kev siv zog los tshawb nrhiav cov lag luam tawm tshiab xws li Southeast Asia thiab Africa, txo qis kev vam khom ntawm ib qho lag luam hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Asmeskas, yog li tau txais txoj haujlwm zoo dua hauv kev tsim kho cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb.
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-16-2025