I. Nqe Ceeb Toom
Tsis ntev los no tsis muaj nqi Trend:Raws li lub yim hli ntuj, tus nqi ntawmpolyester filamentthiab staple fiber ntau (cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb rau polyester ntaub) tau qhia txog kev poob qis. Piv txwv li, tus nqi piv txwv ntawm polyester staple fiber ntau ntawm Lub Koom Haum Lag Luam yog 6,600 yuan / tuj thaum pib ntawm lub hli, thiab poob mus rau 6,474.83 yuan / tuj los ntawm Lub Yim Hli 8, nrog kev txo qis ntawm kwv yees li 1.9%. Raws li lub Yim Hli 15, cov nqi hais tawm ntawm POY (150D / 48F) los ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom loj polyester filament hauv cheeb tsam Jiangsu-Zhejiang thaj tsam li ntawm 6,600 txog 6,900 yuan / ton, thaum polyester DTY (150D / 48F polyester tsis tshua muaj elasticity) tau hais ntawm 7,800 mus rau 800 yuan / yuan, (150D / 96F) ntawm 7,000 txog 7,200 yuan / ton - tag nrho cov uas pom qhov sib txawv ntawm kev poob qis piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.
Tsawg Nqi-Side Support:Cov nqi roj av thoob ntiaj teb tam sim no hloov pauv nyob rau hauv ntau yam vim muaj qhov xwm txheej xws li Russia-Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb thiab OPEC + cov cai, tsis muab kev txhawb nqa thiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev txhawb nqa ntawm polyester ntaub. Rau PTA, qhov kev tso tawm tshiab muaj peev xwm tsim khoom tau nce ntxiv, tsim kom muaj zog ntawm tus nqi nce; ethylene glycol cov nqi kuj ntsib kev txhawb nqa tsis muaj zog vim cov roj crude poob thiab lwm yam. Ua ke, tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub polyester tsis tuaj yeem muab kev txhawb zog rau nws cov nqi.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Restricts Price Rebound:Txawm hais tias tag nrho cov khoom muag ntawm polyester filament yog tam sim no nyob rau theem qis (POY cov khoom muag: 6-17 hnub, FDY cov khoom muag: 4-17 hnub, DTY cov khoom muag: 5-17 hnub), kev lag luam textile thiab tsoos tsho tau poob qis, ua rau kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab txuas ntxiv ua kom muaj zog txaus siab. Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv-xav tau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg hauv kev lag luam txhais tau hais tias qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi luv luv yuav tsis zoo li.
II. Cov lus pom zoo rau Tshuag
Short-Term Stocking Strategy: Muab hais tias lub sij hawm tam sim no yog qhov kawg ntawm lub caij nyoog off-season, tsis muaj kev rov qab los ntawm cov kev xav tau hauv qab, cov tuam txhab lag luam tseem tuav cov khoom lag luam grey siab (kwv yees li 36.8 hnub). Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum zam cov khoom lag luam hnyav thiab tsis txhob tsom mus rau kev yuav khoom txaus kom tau raws li qhov xav tau nruj rau 1-2 lub lis piam tom ntej, txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov khoom muag rov qab. Lub caij no, tsis tu ncua saib xyuas cov qauv ntawm cov nqi roj av thiab kev muag khoom-rau-tsim piv ntawm polyester filament factories. Yog hais tias cov roj crude rebounds sharply los yog qhov muag-rau-tsim piv ntawm polyester filament nce siab rau ob peb hnub sib law liag, xav txog qhov nruab nrab nce ntxiv ntim.
Mid-rau-Long-Term Stocking Timing:Nrog rau kev tuaj txog ntawm "Lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj thiab Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj" lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws rau kev siv tsoos tsho, yog tias qhov kev thov hauv kev lag luam qis qis qis dua, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev thov rau polyester ntaub thiab muaj peev xwm ua rau tus nqi rov qab. Cov tuam txhab lag luam tuaj yeem saib xyuas kev loj hlob ntawm polyester npuag xaj hauv khw txij lub Yim Hli mus txog rau lub Cuaj Hli. Yog hais tias lub davhlau ya nyob twg kev txiav txim nce siab thiab kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab weaving nce ntxiv, lawv tuaj yeem xaiv los ua cov khoom siv nruab nrab-rau-ntev-ntev raw khoom cia ua ntej cov nqi ntaub nce siab, hauv kev npaj rau lub caij nyoog ntau lawm. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov ntim cia yuav tsum tsis pub tshaj qhov kev siv li ib txwm siv li ntawm 2 lub hlis, txhawm rau txo qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus nqi hloov pauv los ntawm qis dua qhov xav tau ntawm lub caij nyoog xav tau.
Kev siv cov cuab yeej Risk Hedging:Rau cov lag luam ntawm ib qho kev ntsuas, cov cuab yeej ua lag luam yav tom ntej tuaj yeem siv los tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus nqi hloov pauv. Yog tias tus nqi nce siab nyob rau lub sijhawm tom ntej, tsim nyog yuav cov ntawv cog lus yav tom ntej kom kaw cov nqi; yog tias tus nqi poob qis, muag cov ntawv cog lus yav tom ntej kom tsis txhob poob.
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-21-2025