I kēia mau lā, ua hoʻomau ke aupuni US i ka hoʻonui ʻana i kāna kulekele "reciprocal tariff", me ka hui pū ʻana me Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka i ka papa inoa hoʻopaʻi a hoʻokau i nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o 37% a me 44%. ʻO kēia neʻe ʻaʻole i hana wale i kahi "puʻu i manaʻo ʻia" i nā ʻōnaehana hoʻokele waiwai o nā ʻāina ʻelua, kahi i hilinaʻi nui ʻia i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ka textile, akā ua hoʻoulu ʻia hoʻi i ke kaulahao i loko o ke kaulahao lako textile honua. Ua paʻa pū ʻia ka ʻoihana lole lole a me ka ʻoihana kūloko o ʻAmelika i nā pilikia ʻelua o ka piʻi nui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai a me ka haunaele kaulahao.
I. Bangladesh: Ua lilo nā mea hoʻokuʻu lole lole i $ 3.3 biliona, miliona o nā hana ma ke kahua
ʻOiai ʻo ia ka lua o ka mea kūʻai lole lole nui loa ma ka honua, ʻo ka ʻoihana lole a me nā lole ʻo ia ka "ola hoʻokele waiwai" o Bangladesh. Hāʻawi kēia ʻoihana i ka 11% o ka GDP a pau o ka ʻāina, 84% o ka nui o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana aku, a ke alakaʻi pololei nei i ka hana ma mua o 4 miliona mau kānaka (80% o lākou he mau limahana wahine). Kākoʻo ʻole ʻo ia i ke ola o ka ʻoi aku o 15 miliona mau kānaka ma nā kaulahao ʻoihana i luna a i lalo. ʻO ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Bangladesh ka lua o ka mākeke kūʻai nui loa ma hope o ka European Union. I ka makahiki 2023, ua hōʻea ka lole lole a me nā lole a Bangladesh i US i $ 6.4 biliona, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka 95% o kāna mau mea hoʻopuka i ka US, e uhi ana i nā mea kūʻai wikiwiki wikiwiki e like me nā T-shirts, jeans, a me nā pālule, a me ka lawelawe ʻana ma ke ʻano he kumu waiwai nui no nā hale kūʻai US e like me Walmart a me Target.
ʻO ke kau ʻana o ka US he 37% tariff ma nā huahana Bangladeshi i kēia manawa, ʻo ia ka T-shirt pulupulu mai Bangladesh, nona ke kumu kūʻai he $10 a me ke kumu kūʻai kūʻai aku he $15, pono e uku hou i $5.55 i nā kumukūʻai ma hope o ke komo ʻana i ka mākeke US, e koi ana i ka huina kālā a hiki i $20.55 pololei. No ka ʻoihana lole lole o Bangladesh, e hilinaʻi ana i ka "kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa a me nā palena waiwai lahilahi" ma ke ʻano he pono hoʻokūkū koʻikoʻi, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o kēia kumukūʻai ma mua o ka palena o ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana o 5% -8%. Wahi a ka Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), ma hope o ka hoʻokō ʻia ʻana o ka uku, e hāʻule ana nā huahana textile o ka ʻāina i ʻAmelika mai $6.4 biliona i kēlā me kēia makahiki a hiki i kahi $3.1 biliona, me ka poho makahiki a hiki i $3.3 biliona—e like me ka wehe ʻana i ka ʻoihana lole lole o ka ʻāina i ka hapalua o kāna māhele mākeke US.
ʻO ka mea koʻikoʻi, ʻo ka emi ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku ua hoʻāla i ka nalu o nā layoffs i ka ʻoihana. I kēia manawa, ua hoʻopau nā hale lole lole liʻiliʻi a me waena o 27 ma Bangladesh i ka hana ʻana ma muli o ka nalowale o nā kauoha, ka hopena o ka nele o nā limahana 18,000. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo BGMEA inā e hoʻomau ka uku no nā mahina ʻeono, ʻoi aku ma mua o 50 mau hale hana a puni ka ʻāina e pani ʻia, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka poʻe hana ʻole ma mua o 100,000, e hoʻopilikia hou i ka nohona pili kanaka a me ka palekana ola o ka poʻe ma ka ʻāina. Ma ka manawa like, hilinaʻi nui ka ʻoihana textile o Bangladesh i ka pulupulu lawe ʻia mai (ma kahi o 90% o ka pulupulu e pono ke kūʻai ʻia mai ʻAmelika a me India). ʻO ka hāʻule nui ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā e hoʻokuʻu aku e alakaʻi i ka hemahema o nā waihona kālā ʻē aʻe, e pili ana i ka hiki o ka ʻāina ke lawe mai i nā mea maka e like me ka pulupulu a me ka hoʻokumu ʻana i kahi pōʻai ʻino o ka "hōʻemi ʻana i nā mea kūʻai aku → ka hemahema o nā kumu waiwai → hiki ke hoʻemi ʻia".
II. Sri Lanka: 44% ʻO ka Tariff Breaks Cost Bottom Line, Pillar Industry ma ke kapa o "Chain Breakage"
Ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me Bangladesh, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka ʻoihana textile o Sri Lanka akā he "pōhaku kihi" o kāna ʻoihana aupuni. Hāʻawi ka ʻoihana lole a me nā lole i ka 5% o ka GDP o ka ʻāina a me 45% o ka nui o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana aku, me ka ʻoi aku o 300,000 mau limahana pololei, e lilo ana ia i ʻoihana kumu no ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai o Sri Lanka ma hope o ke kaua. ʻO kāna mau hoʻokuʻu aku i ka US e hoʻomalu ʻia e nā lole waena a kiʻekiʻe a me nā lole hana (e like me nā lole haʻuki a me nā lole lalo). I ka makahiki 2023, ua hōʻea ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ka textile o Sri Lanka i ka US $ 1.8 biliona, e helu ana no 7% o ka mākeke lawe mai ʻAmelika no nā lole waena a kiʻekiʻe.
ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka US tariff rate o Sri Lanka i ka 44% i kēia manawa, ʻo ia kekahi o nā ʻāina me nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe loa i kēia pōʻai o "reciprocal tariffs". Wahi a kahi hōʻike a ka Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA), e hoʻonui pololei kēia kumukūʻai i nā kumu kūʻai lole lole o ka ʻāina ma kahi o 30%. ʻO ka lawe ʻana i ka huahana hoʻopuka hae nui o Sri Lanka—“ʻaʻahu haʻuki pulupulu kūlohelohe”—ma ke ʻano he laʻana, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai mua no ka mika he $8. Ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana o ka uku, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai i $ 11.52, ʻoiai ke kumukūʻai o nā huahana like i lawe ʻia mai India a me Vietnam he $ 9-$10 wale nō. ʻO ke kumukūʻai hoʻokūkū o nā huahana Sri Lanka ua aneane pau loa.
I kēia manawa, ua loaʻa i kekahi mau ʻoihana kūʻai aku ma Sri Lanka "nā leka hoʻokuʻu kauoha" mai nā mea kūʻai aku o US. No ka laʻana, ʻo Brandix Group, ka mea kūʻai lole lole nui loa o Sri Lanka, i hana mua i nā lole lole no ka brand haʻuki US Under Armor me ka nui o ka helu o ka mahina o 500,000 mau ʻāpana. I kēia manawa, ma muli o nā pilikia kumukūʻai, ua hoʻololi ʻo Under Armor i 30% o kāna mau kauoha i nā hale hana ma Vietnam. ʻO kahi ʻoihana ʻē aʻe, ʻo Hirdaramani, i ʻōlelo ʻia inā ʻaʻole e hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻia nā kumukūʻai, e loaʻa ana kāna ʻoihana hoʻokuʻu aku i ka US i nā poho i loko o ʻekolu mahina, a hiki ke koi ʻia e pani i ʻelua mau hale hana ma Colombo, e pili ana i nā hana 8,000. Eia kekahi, ke hilinaʻi nei ka ʻoihana textile o Sri Lanka i ke ʻano hoʻohālike "hoʻoponopono me nā mea i lawe ʻia mai" (hoʻokomo ʻia nā kumu waiwai no 70% o ka huina). ʻO ka paʻa ʻana o nā mea hoʻopuka e alakaʻi i ka backlog o ka waihona waiwai maka, e noho ana i ke kapikala hana o nā ʻoihana a hoʻonui hou i kā lākou mau pilikia hana.
III. ʻĀpana ʻĀpana ʻAmelika: ʻO ka haunaele Chain Chain + nā kumukūʻai piʻi nui, hopu ʻia ka ʻoihana i ka "Dilemma"
ʻO ke kulekele kumukūʻai o ke aupuni US, ka mea i manaʻo ʻia e kuhikuhi i nā "hoʻokūkū o nā ʻāina ʻē", ua hana maoli i ka "backlash" kūʻē i ka ʻoihana lole a me nā ʻoihana lole. ʻOiai ʻo ka mea hoʻopuka nui loa o ka honua i nā lole a me nā lole (me ka nui o $120 biliona i ka makahiki 2023), ke hōʻike nei ka US textile a me nā ʻoihana lole i ke ʻano o ka "upstream domestic production and downstream import dependence" - nā ʻoihana home e hana nui i nā mea maka e like me ka pulupulu a me nā fibers kemika, aʻo 90% o nā huahana lole i hoʻopau ʻia e hilinaʻi i ka lawe ʻana mai. ʻO Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka nā kumu nui o nā lole waena a me nā lole waena a kiʻekiʻe no ka US.
ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ka tariff ua hoʻopiʻi pololei i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai o nā ʻoihana kūloko o US. Ua hōʻike ʻia kahi noiʻi a ka American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) he 3%-5% wale nō ka palena o ka loaʻa kālā o ka US textile a me nā mea hoʻolako lole. ʻO ka uku 37%-44% ʻo ia ka ʻoihana e "hoʻopau i nā kumukūʻai iā lākou iho" (e alakaʻi ana i nā poho) a i ʻole "e hāʻawi iā lākou e hoʻopau i nā kumukūʻai". ʻO ka lawe ʻana iā JC Penney, kahi hale kūʻai kūloko o ʻAmelika, ma ke ʻano he $49.9 ke kumukūʻai kūʻai mua o nā jeans i kūʻai ʻia mai Bangladesh. Ma hope o ka piʻiʻana o ka uku, inā e mālamaʻia ka palena kālā, pono e piʻi ke kumukūʻai kūʻai i $ 68.9, kahi piʻi o kahi kokoke i 40%. Inā ʻaʻole i hoʻonui ʻia ke kumukūʻai, e hāʻule ka loaʻa kālā no kēlā me kēia pants mai $3 a i $0.5, ʻaneʻane ʻaʻohe loaʻa kālā.
I ka manawa like, ua hoʻokomo ʻia nā ʻoihana i ka "pilikia hoʻoholo". Ua kuhikuhi ʻo Julia Hughes, Pelekikena o ka AAFA, i kahi ʻaha kūkā ʻoihana i hoʻolālā mua ʻia e nā ʻoihana US e hōʻemi i nā pilikia ma o ka "hoʻololi ʻana i nā wahi kūʻai" (e like me ka hoʻoili ʻana i kekahi mau kauoha mai Kina a Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka). Eia naʻe, ʻo ka piʻi koke ʻana o ke kulekele uku ua hoʻopau i nā hoʻolālā āpau: "ʻAʻole ʻike nā ʻoihana i ka ʻāina e hiki mai ana i ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka uku, ʻaʻole hoʻi lākou i ʻike i ka lōʻihi o ka uku o ka uku. I kēia manawa, ua ʻōlelo ʻo 35% o nā mea lawe lole lole US e "hoʻokuʻu lākou i ka hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻana i nā kauoha hou", a ua hoʻomaka ka 28% o nā ʻoihana e loiloi hou i kā lākou mau kaulahao lako, e noʻonoʻo ana i ka hoʻoili ʻana i nā kauoha i Mexico a me ʻAmelika ʻAmelika ʻaʻole i uhi ʻia e ka uku. Eia nō naʻe, ua kaupalena ʻia ka mana hana ma kēia mau ʻāina (hiki ke lawe i 15% wale nō o nā ʻaʻahu i lawe ʻia mai ʻAmelika), e paʻakikī ana e hoʻopiha i ka hakahaka mākeke i waiho ʻia e Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka i ka wā pōkole.
Eia kekahi, ʻo nā mea kūʻai aku o ʻAmelika e "wāwae i ka bila". Hōʻike ka ʻikepili mai ka US Bureau of Labor Statistics mai ka makahiki 2024, ua piʻi ka US Consumer Price Index (CPI) no nā lole e 3.2% makahiki-ma-makahiki. ʻO ka hoʻomau mau ʻana o ke kulekele tariff hiki ke alakaʻi i kahi piʻi hou aʻe o 5%-7% o nā kumukūʻai lole ma ka hopena o ka makahiki, e hoʻoikaika hou ana i nā piʻi kālā. No nā pūʻulu haʻahaʻa, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻolimalima lole no ka hapa kiʻekiʻe o ka loaʻa kālā hoʻopau (ma kahi o 8%), a ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai e hoʻopilikia pololei i ko lākou hiki ke hoʻohana, a laila e kāohi ai i ka noi no ka mākeke lole kūloko o US.
IV. Hoʻoponopono hou ʻana i ke kaulahao lako lole lole honua: Chaos no ka wā pōkole a me ka hoʻoponopono lōʻihi.
ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai US ma Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka he microcosm maoli ia o ka "geopoliticization" o ke kaulahao lako textile honua. I ka wā pōkole, ua alakaʻi kēia kulekele i kahi "vacuum zone" i loko o ke kaulahao lako lole waena waena a hiki i ka haʻahaʻa - ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻopau piha ʻia nā poho kauoha ma Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka e nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i ka wā pōkole, hiki ke hoʻoulu i ka "haʻahaʻa waiwai" no kekahi mau mea kūʻai kūʻai US. I ka manawa like, ʻo ka emi ʻana o nā ʻoihana textile ma kēia mau ʻāina ʻelua e hoʻopilikia i ka noi no nā mea maka o luna e like me ka pulupulu a me nā fibers kemika, e hoʻokau i ka hopena kūwaho i nā ʻāina e lawe aku ana i ka pulupulu e like me US a me India.
I ka wā lōʻihi, hiki i ke kaulahao lako textile honua ke hoʻolōʻihi i kona hoʻololi ʻana i ka "kokoke" a me ka "diversification": hiki i nā ʻoihana US ke hoʻololi hou i nā kauoha i Mexico a me Kanada (e hauʻoli ana i nā koho tariff ma lalo o ka North American Free Trade Agreement), hiki i nā ʻoihana ʻEulopa ke hoʻonui i ke kūʻai ʻana mai Turkey a me Morocco, ʻoiai ʻo nā ʻoihana lole Kina, e hilinaʻi ana i kā lākou "huahana hana piha" (hiki ke hoʻopau i kā lākou huahana huahana piha). ma luna o kekahi mau kauoha waena a kiʻekiʻe (e like me nā lole hana a me nā lole eco-friendly) i hoʻoili ʻia mai Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka. Eia nō naʻe, e lōʻihi ana kēia kaʻina hana hoʻoponopono (i manaʻo ʻia he 1-2 mau makahiki) a e hui pū ʻia me nā kumukūʻai hoʻonui no ke kūkulu hou ʻana i ke kaulahao lako, e paʻakikī ai ka hoʻopau piha ʻana i ka haunaele ʻoihana o kēia manawa i ka wā pōkole.
No nā ʻoihana kālepa lole lole ʻē aʻe o Kina, ʻo kēia pōʻai kūpilikiʻi e lawe mai i nā pilikia ʻelua (pono e hoʻokō me ka nāwaliwali o ka noi honua a me ka hoʻokūkū hoʻokūkū hoʻolako) a me nā manawa huna. Hiki iā lākou ke hoʻoikaika i ka launa pū ʻana me nā hale hana kūloko ma Bangladesh a me Sri Lanka (e like me ka hāʻawi ʻana i ke kākoʻo ʻenehana a me ka hana hui ʻana) e pale aku ai i nā pale uku US. I ka manawa like, hiki iā lākou ke hoʻonui i nā hana e ʻimi i nā mākeke e kū mai ana e like me Asia Hema a me ʻApelika, e hōʻemi ana i ka hilinaʻi ʻana i kahi mākeke hoʻokahi ma ʻEulopa a me US, a laila e loaʻa ai kahi kūlana maikaʻi loa i ke kūkulu hou ʻana i ke kaulahao lako honua.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: ʻAukake-16-2025