Ma ʻAukake 12, ua hoʻolaha pū ʻo Kina a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke kulekele kalepa no ka manawa pōkole: 24% o nā kumukūʻai 34% i kau ʻia ma ʻApelila o kēia makahiki e hoʻokuʻu ʻia no nā lā he 90, aʻo ke koena 10% o nā kumukūʻai hou e noho mau. ʻO ka hoʻokomo ʻia ʻana o kēia kulekele i hoʻokomo koke i kahi "booster shot" i loko o ka ʻāpana lole lole o Kina, akā hūnā pū kekahi i nā pilikia mai ka hoʻokūkū lōʻihi.
Ma keʻano o nā hopena pōkole, he mea nui ka hopena koke o ka hoʻokōʻana i ke kulekele. No nā ʻoihana lole lole a me nā lole hoʻokuʻu lole o Kina e hilinaʻi nei i ka mākeke US, ʻo ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ka tariff 24% e hōʻemi pololei ana i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai aku. ʻO ka lawe ʻana i kahi pūʻulu lole lole he $1 miliona ma ke ʻano he laʻana, he $340,000 hou i koi ʻia ma mua; ma hope o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke kulekele, pono e uku ʻia he $100,000, e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻemi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai ma luna o 70%. Ua hoʻouna koke ʻia kēia hoʻololi i ka mākeke: i ka lā i hoʻolaha ʻia ai ke kulekele, ua loaʻa nā ʻoihana i nā hui ʻoihana textile e like me Shaoxing ma Zhejiang a me Dongguan ma Guangdong i nā kauoha hou mai nā mea kūʻai mai US. Ua hōʻike ʻia ka mea nāna e mālama i kahi ʻoihana kūʻai aku ma Zhejiang i ka lole pulupulu, ua loaʻa iā lākou he 3 mau kauoha no ka huina o 5,000 mau ʻaʻahu a me ka hoʻoilo i ka ʻauinalā o ʻAukake 12, me nā mea kūʻai aku e ʻōlelo nei "ma muli o ka emi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai, manaʻo lākou e laka i ka lako ma mua." Ua loaʻa pū kekahi ʻoihana lole ma Guangdong i nā koi hoʻopiha hou mai nā hale kūʻai US, e pili ana i nā ʻāpana e like me ka denim a me nā lole knitted, me ka piʻi ʻana o ka nui o nā kauoha e 30% i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka manawa like i nā makahiki i hala.
Ma hope o kēia hopena maikaʻi no ka wā pōkole, aia ka makemake wikiwiki o ka mākeke no ke kūpaʻa i ka ʻoihana kalepa. I loko o nā mahina ʻeono i hala iho nei, i hoʻopilikia ʻia e ka uku kiʻekiʻe 34%, ua hoʻokau ʻia nā ʻoihana lole lole a Kina i US. ʻO kekahi poʻe kūʻai US, e pale aku i nā kumukūʻai, huli i ke kūʻai ʻana mai nā ʻāina me nā tariff haʻahaʻa e like me Vietnam a me Bangladesh, e alakaʻi ana i ka emi ʻana o ka mahina ma ka mahina o ka ulu ʻana o nā huahana textile a Kina i ka US i ka lua o ka hapaha. ʻO ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā kumukūʻai i kēia manawa ua like ia me ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā ʻoihana me kahi "buffer period" 3 mau mahina, ʻaʻole ia e kōkua wale i ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā mea kūʻai aku a hoʻopaʻa i nā mele hana akā hana pū kekahi i nā ʻoihana ma nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua e hoʻoponopono hou i nā kumukūʻai a kau inoa i nā kauoha hou.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ke ʻano pōkole o ke kulekele i kau i ke kumu no ka maopopo ʻole o ka wā lōʻihi. ʻO ka manawa hoʻokuʻu 90-lā ʻaʻole ia he hoʻopau mau ʻana i nā kumukūʻai, a inā paha e hoʻonui ʻia ma hope o ka pau ʻana a me ka nui o nā hoʻoponopono e pili ana i ka holomua o nā kūkākūkā Kina-US. Hiki i kēia hopena "window window" ke alakaʻi i ka ʻano mākeke no ka wā pōkole: hiki i nā mea kūʻai aku o ʻAmelika ke kau i nā kauoha i loko o 90 mau lā, ʻoiai pono nā ʻoihana Kina e makaʻala e pili ana i ka pilikia o ka "order overdraft" - inā e hoʻihoʻi ʻia nā kumukūʻai ma hope o ka pau ʻana o ke kulekele, e hāʻule paha nā kauoha ma hope.
ʻO ka mea ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, ʻo ka hoʻokūkū hoʻokūkū o nā huahana textile o Kina i ka mākeke honua ua hoʻololi nui ʻia. ʻO ka ʻikepili hou loa mai Ianuali a Mei i kēia makahiki e hōʻike ana ua hāʻule ka māhele o Kina i ka mākeke lole lole US i 17,2%, ʻo ia ka manawa mua mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā helu helu ua ʻoi aku ma mua o Vietnam (17,5%). ʻO Vietnam, e hilinaʻi ana i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, nā pōmaikaʻi mai nā kuʻikahi kālepa manuahi me nā wahi e like me ka EU, a me kāna hoʻonui wikiwiki ʻana i nā kaulahao ʻoihana textile i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ke hoʻohuli nei i nā kauoha no Kina. Eia kekahi, ʻo nā ʻāina e like me Bangladesh a me India ke hoʻolalelale nei i kā lākou hopu ʻana ma o nā koho tariff a me ke kākoʻo kulekele ʻoihana.
No laila, ʻo kēia hoʻololi pōkole o nā kumukūʻai Kina-US he "manawa hanu" a he "hoʻomanaʻo no ka hoʻololi ʻana" no nā ʻoihana kalepa lole lole o Kina. ʻOiai e hopu ana i nā ʻāpana o nā kauoha no ka wā pōkole, pono nā ʻoihana e hoʻolalelale i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i nā lole kiʻekiʻe, ka hōʻailona ʻana, a me ka hana ʻōmaʻomaʻo no ka hoʻokō ʻana i ke kaomi lōʻihi o ka hoʻokūkū honua a me ka maopopo ʻole o nā kulekele kālepa.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: ʻAukake-14-2025